Thread by @lymanstoneky

Interesting-- looks like the shelling by the separatists was more intense than I realized. Significant artillery strikes all along the line.

This is exactly what the South Ossetians did to try to goad Georgia in 2008.

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1494282040539234305

Also, QUICK REMINDER:

The 2008 Georgian war WAS DURING THE BEIJING OLYMPICS.

I'm not saying that Beijing hosting Olympics is the causal agent of Russian aggression, but I'm saying that for the sake of world peace, precaution suggests we should never let China host the Olympics ever again.

Also, the Georgian precedent is really important because it shows what not to do:

Ukraine should absolutely not allow itself to be goaded into a response.

They should hunker down, keep preparing their defenses, and keep their powder dry. The longer they drag things out the better it is for Ukraine as Russia's forward deployment is extremely costly for them.

Plus, Ukraine's only chance at a successful defense is trusting that they can make use of well prepared positions to blunt and slow the initial assault and then engage in defense in depth.

None of that works if their troops are flung out into an offense into the Donbas.

I'm not the only one seeing shadows of Georgia.

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1494264636258009088

Honestly, the fact that the US was recklessly deployed into Iraq at the time and so unable to support Georgia in such a globally important conflict is one of the most disastrous foreign policy events of our time.

It was the failure to stop aggression in Georgia which created the conditions for Crimea and the Donbas and this conflict today--- and which also imperils Taiwan. It was failure to police basic international norms of sovereignty which created a return of this kind of politics.

Had the US not been distracted by Iraq, we could have handled Georgia more similarly to how we handled Kuwait. Instead, we were like, hey, Sarkozy, go use yourself as a human shield and help Georgia accept a humiliating peace.

Nice graph of ceasefire violations. The attacks of last night are a considerable escalation by the separatists.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1494291029578637319

Re: Georgia. We might not have actually deployed, but we could have done as we've done for Ukraine: threaten serious sanctions, provide serious weaponry, etc. Also didn't help that all Georgia's best combat units were.... in Iraq.

US deployment to Afghanistan of course was the big issue; we didn't want Russia to close down the northern supply corridor. Not being Iraq wouldn't have changed that per se, however it would have meant the US had far more flexibility.

But yes I think in the Georgian case the US should have considered much deeper engagement. The Georgian case is in my mind even more clearcut than Ukraine.

Regardless, we should have supported Georgia at least as much as we are supporting Ukraine: pump in as much guns and money as they need to give Russia a bloody nose.

Instead we just sat by while the Russians practically reached the outskirts of Tbilisi.