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Michael McFaul Profile picture
@McFaul
Feb 15, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
We are all looking for signs of Putin pivoting towards negotiations, not war, because we all want to avoid war. But we should be careful about cherry-picking the tea leaves. 1/ THREAD
He told Lavrov to pursue negotiations, yes. That's good news. 2/
But Putin also called Donbas a genocide. How can Putin stand by and watch a genocide of ethnic Russians (his frame not mine)? That quip from Putin scared me. 3/
The Duma passed a (non-binding) resolution calling for Russia to recognize Ukrainian regions as independent states. That's de facto a declaration of war since Putin-backed rebels don't control all of these territories. 4/
So there are new tea leaves pointing in opposite directions. 5/ END THREAD

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More from @McFaul

Michael McFaul Profile picture
Sep 23
The differences between candidates regarding foreign policy in this presidential election are very clear. That is not always the case. But this time around, voters have a very clear choice. Harris and Trump have very different approaches. 1/ THREAD
Harris believes in engagement and world leadership, supports allies and multilateralism, champions economic statecraft that benefits all Americans, and aspires to advance our democratic values. 2/
Trump trumpets isolationism, pursues pugnacious unilateralism, does not value allies, embraces dictators, and ignores the promotion of democratic values. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Sep 13
Any American president must take seriously a threat of escalation from Putin (or Xi). No president wants to take actions that would trigger a direct war with Russia or a nuclear attack on Ukraine. But leaders must weigh the costs of action against the costs of inaction. THREAD 1/
Putin and other leaders have stated clearly the conditions under which they would use a nuclear weapon — an existential threat to Russia. Despite all the recent new rhetoric about escalation, has that position changed? I haven’t seen the evidence, but maybe I’ve missed something. (Send links to correct me if I’m wrong). 2/
The use of a long range missile against a military target inside Russia is NOT an existential threat to Russia. That’s obvious. So the new threats of escalation must fall below the nuclear threshold. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Sep 10
Good debates show clearly the differences between candidates. In this election there are crystal clear differences between Harris and Trump on foreign policy. I hope the moderators use their time wisely to help voters understand these differences. Thread 1/
On Russia/Ukraine, Trump admires Putin. Harris does not. Harris had pledged to continue to aid Ukraine. Trump has not. 2/
On allies, Harris values them. Trump does not. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Aug 27
Harris and Trump have some big differences on foreign policy:

"On the big philosophical issue of the purpose of American power, Harris positioned herself squarely in the established American tradition of seeking to advance both American interests and values." THREAD 1/
"She stated bluntly [in her acceptance speech], “As President, I will never waver in defense of America’s security and ideals. Because, in the enduring struggle between democracy and tyranny, I know where I stand—and where the United States of America belongs.” 2/
Like most American presidents, she purposely rejected the false dichotomy of “realism” versus “liberalism,” popular in some academic and think tank circles. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Aug 24
"On the big philosophical issue of the purpose of American power, @KamalaHarris positioned herself squarely in the established American tradition of seeking to advance both American interests and values [in her speech on Thursday night]." THREAD 1/
She stated bluntly, “As President, I will never waver in defense of America’s security and ideals. Because, in the enduring struggle between democracy and tyranny, I know where I stand—and where the United States of America belongs.” 2/
"Like most American presidents, she purposely rejected the false dichotomy of “realism” versus “liberalism,” popular in some academic and think tank circles." 3/
Read 6 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
Aug 19
Im not an expert on domestic issues, but on foreign policy, the policy contrasts between Harras and Trump could not be clearer. THREAD 1/
Harris believes in alliances. Trump does not. 2/
Harris believes in engagement with the outside world as a strategy to advance American national interests. Trump does not. He's an isolationist who pulled out of many treaties and organizations when president. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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