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Feb 16 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1.STATE OF GLOBAL MARKETS: Have been mentioning in various CH/Spaces Discussions that Global Equity Markets are structurally weak. The boost to Equities by the CBs in Mar 2020 seems to be fizzling out. Let's see how the picture looks one by one
2. NIFTY : Same levels were seen in early Sep '21
3. BANK NIFTY : Even in February 2021 we saw these levels.
4. DJIA : 10th May 2021.
5. S&P 500 : August 2021.
6. NASDAQ(seems weakest of the 3) February 2021.
7. DAX : April 2021
8. CAC : Aug 2021.
9.NIKKEI : January 2021.
10. HANG SENG ( Weakest among Major Markets) . Nov 2020.
11. CHINA : July 2020.
12. Australia : May 2021.
13. KOSPI : Dec. 2020.
14, Russia : May 2021.
15. UK has bucked the trend. Jan. 2022
16. Singapore is the most bullish Equity Market among major markets in the World. Today its made a 4 year high
17. @threadreaderapp . Please "unroll".

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More from @sainik636

SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 16
Early morning rants :1.Screenshots: Why do veteran & well respected Traders regularly put up Screen Shots of their successful trades ?. Never understood what is the purpose. What is the learning for any student of the market by looking at the screen shots ?.
2.One-upmanship : Why do veteran & well respected traders try to demean other veteran & well respected traders by using unparliamentary words?. Don't they realise that their own status is demeaned by such actions ?
3.Closed Minds : Why do veteran & well respected traders get "Invested" so heavily in their Points of View that they are unwilling to accept a well thought out opposing view which may actually help everyone including them.?
Read 10 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 15
1.Comment is free but facts are sacred. In the spirit of PTLP of @Iamsamirarora"Defending against criticism that RBI's inflation projection in the policy might be a tad optimistic,Mistry said that RBI's projections about inflation have been fairly accurate cnbctv18.com/economy/keki-m…
2. Forecast of RBI : Professional forecasters surveyed4 by the Reserve Bank in March 2021 expected CPI inflation to ease from 4.9-5.0 per cent in H1:2021-22 to 4.3 per cent in Q3 and revert to 5.0 per cent in Q4 (Chart I.5).rbi.org.in/Scripts/Public…
3. REALITY :
Read 9 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 13
“Ukraine impact on Geopolitics as well as Markets." with @sainik636, Maj Gen Basavaraj G. Today at 20:30 on @clubhouse! clubhouse.com/event/PADwg26Z…
Major General Basavaraj Gilganchi AVSM (Retd) is a Presidential Award Winner.A veteran of 37 years who has seen active Military operations both conventional & counter insurgency operations. His domain Knowledge is Information & Communication Technology (New age Warfare).
1. Excerpts from the discussion held : Major Gen Basavaraj Gilganchi AVSM(Retd)opined that : This standoff can be a long drawn out affair with Putin being in the driving seat.
Read 13 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 9
1.The"Perfect Storm" of "Backwardation" & "Gamma Squeeze". Backwardation in an asset class happens when far month Future prices are lower than Spot prices, which is rare, since Futures are expected to be higher than Spot to take care of "Cost of Carry".
2. Backwardation can occur as a result of a higher demand for an asset currently than the contracts maturing in the coming months through the futures market.
Traders use backwardation to make a profit by selling short at the current price and buying at the lower futures price.
3.Take the case of Oil,Backwardation has been prevailing for quite some months & it has been as high as 5-7 %. Traders seem to have been very confident that Demand will fall off with the end of winter but that has clearly not happened. Now there is a scramble to cover.
Read 9 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 9
1.Clash of the Titans: Ed Yardeni is credited with the term "Bond Vigilantes". Clinton's Admin got a taste of them when 10y yields went up from 5% to 8% a rise of 60% in 6 months which was called"The Bond Massacre". He reacted with alacrity & in next 4 years they dropped to 4 %
2. Clinton political adviser James Carville said at the time,"I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or as a .400 Baseball Hitter. But now I would like to come back as the Bond market. You can intimidate everybody."
3.Those were the days when 'Free Markets" existed & normal biz cycles of Inflation/Deflation happened. However in the 1st Decade Inflation gave way to Deflation & CBs could banish the Vigilantes to oblivion.
Read 11 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 7
1.Calm before the storm?:Way ahead for the markets. Excerpts of CH disc yesterday. Eerie calm in the market.All strategists looking for New Highs,based on Govt policies,Corporate Results,Low inflation, Retail/MF fund flows, Sentiment etc. My take:Are we in the "Eye of the Storm"
2. At the peak of every Bull Market except 1992, all the above factors were present. In 1994, Pvt Sector MFs & FIIs having just entered the market, Budget being very good, Record Corp results & sentiment very high, no clouds on the Horizon.
3. 2000 & 2008 too had the same set of positive reinforcements. To some extent even in 2010 & 2015 it was the same scenario. Yet all of them topped out on LIQUIDITY being withdrawn overtly & covertly.
Read 15 tweets

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