Thread by @sainik636

“Ukraine impact on Geopolitics as well as Markets." with @sainik636, Maj Gen Basavaraj G. Today at 20:30 on @clubhouse! clubhouse.com/event/PADwg26Z…

Major General Basavaraj Gilganchi AVSM (Retd) is a Presidential Award Winner.A veteran of 37 years who has seen active Military operations both conventional & counter insurgency operations. His domain Knowledge is Information & Communication Technology (New age Warfare).

1. Excerpts from the discussion held : Major Gen Basavaraj Gilganchi AVSM(Retd)opined that : This standoff can be a long drawn out affair with Putin being in the driving seat.

2. Since Ukraine is not part of NATO its difficult to envisage an armed conflict spreading to other countries. Economic Sanctions could be a deterrent. However since Russia exports oil & wheat in a big manner this will likely to fuel the commodity boom further

3. Russia is already technically at war with Ukraine since its annexed Crimea which was a part of it, so Putin can become more adventurous since last time around the sanctions did not work out.

4. Diplomacy has clearly failed. Russia has already amassed more than 1.3 lakh troops & has beefed it up with Artillery as well as Tanks. While this could be a part of the War Games scheduled for this week, this also could be a threat posture.

5. Difficult to read the end game of Putin, but he may be looking at extracting some concessions from the West which may be revealed when serious talks take place in the next round.

6. The missing link in the War Preparations is the Air Force which would be the first line of attack IF hostilities break out. He felt that the Air Force would be ready to strike at any moment IF necessary.

7. The collateral damage of this conflict would be in the China- Taiwan which may embolden China to go ahead full throttle with it's annexation plans

8. My take on the Market fallout: The markets are structurally weak & this is a new headache which will keep a lid on any excessive bullishness in the next few weeks. Dollar, Commodities esp Oil & Food are likely to be fairly bid.

9.Ukraine has the highest per capita Crypto Investors, hence there could be some shocks coming on the front.

10. Investors may want to look at domestic facing companies which are NOT interest rate sensitive. 16 k looks nearer than 18k, especially with LIC IPO looming large to suck out liquidity.

11. @threadreaderapp "Please unroll"