Ray Dalio Profile picture
Feb 16 4 tweets 1 min read
This chart shows my index of conflict just between the US and China since 1970. (1/4) Image
Based on what we have been seeing, the United States and China are clearly in four types of war (trade/economic war, technology war, capital war, & geopolitical war), though not intensely but they are intensifying. They are not yet in the fifth type of war (military war). (2/4)
As shown in the previous cases, in particular the 1930–1945 case, these four types of wars precede military wars by about five to 10 years. Though the risks of military war seem relatively low, they are increasing. (3/4)
If you’re interested in learning more, check out my new book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, which is now available. (4/4)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RayDalio

Feb 16
If you're like most people, the idea of facing the unvarnished truth makes you anxious. To get over that, you need to understand intellectually why untruths are scarier than truths and then, through practice, get accustomed to living with them. (1/4)
If you're sick, it's natural to fear your doctor's diagnosis--what if it's cancer or some other deadly disease? As scary as the truth may turn out to be, you will be better off knowing it in the long run because it will allow you to seek the most appropriate treatment. (2/4)
The same holds for learning painful truths about your own strengths and weaknesses. Knowing and acting on the truth is what we call the "big deal" at Bridgewater. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
That was certainly the case in the 1990–2008 period. (1/4)
Throughout the long-term debt cycle, from 1945 until 2008, whenever the Federal Reserve wanted the economy to pick up it would lower interest rates and make money and credit more available, which would increase stock and bond prices and increase demand. (2/4)
That was how it was done until 2008—i.e., interest rates were cut, and debts were increased faster than incomes to create unsustainable bubbles. That changed when the bubble burst in 2008 and interest rates hit 0 percent for the first time since the Great Depression. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
Escalating means saying you don’t believe you can successfully handle a situation and that you are passing the Responsible Party job to someone else. (1/5)
The person you are escalating to—the person to whom you report—can then decide whether to coach you through it, take control themselves, have someone else handle it, or do something else. (2/5)
It’s critical that escalation not be seen as a failure but as a responsibility. All Responsible Parties will eventually face tests that they don’t know whether they can handle; (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Feb 9
The external conflict gauge shown here measures the levels of economic, political/cultural, and military conflict between pairs of major countries. (1/4)
As shown, the greatest conflict is between the US and China, the two greatest powers in the world that have comparable amounts of power—more than enough to make a war between them the most devastating in history. (2/4)
The amount of this conflict is 1 standard deviation above normal, which is pretty severe in relation to past conflicts between countries. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Feb 8
I just read Life Force by @TonyRobbins and urge you to read it if you're interested in the science of living longer. (1/6)
I have found that there aren't many subjects that people care more about, that have shown greater scientific progress, and that most people are more ignorant about than longevity. (2/6)
That’s because up until now, too much information has been scattered all over the place to review and digest. In creating Life Force, Tony, who has devoted his life to making people healthy in mind and body, (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Feb 3
That is because all investments are exchanges of lump-sum payments today for future payments. (1/7) Image
What these future cash payments will be is determined by growth and inflation, what risk investors are willing to take in investing in them as compared to having cash in hand is the risk premium, (2/7)
and what they are worth today, which is called their “present value,” is determined by the discount rate. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

:(