Since 2013, the total fertility rate (TFR) is decreasing in Azerbaijan.
The decline in the TFR goes is primarily due to the continued trend of decline in higher-order births and the transition from a model of large families to a family with fewer children. #demographics
The decline in the TFR goes is primarily due to the continued trend of decline in higher-order births and the transition from a model of large families to a family with fewer children. #demographics
If current trends will continue, Azerbaijan would face insufficient number of fertile-age women able to maintain stable birth rate and this would have a negative impact on the sustainability of the country’s demographic development.
Given that the average age of marriage is 28 years for men and 24 years for women, Azerbaijan may face a shortage of brides in the near future.
At the moment, with young-age mortality decreasing, the gender imbalance between men and women persists for longer periods.
At the moment, with young-age mortality decreasing, the gender imbalance between men and women persists for longer periods.
The total birth rate of 2.1-2.2 children is sufficient for population replacement.
Today in Azerbaijan this indicator is 1.9 children per woman according to the data from 2019, while until recently it was at the level of 2.1-2.2.
Today in Azerbaijan this indicator is 1.9 children per woman according to the data from 2019, while until recently it was at the level of 2.1-2.2.
The downward trend in the total fertility rate will contribute to the population ageing.
In upcoming years, the most numerous generations are approaching to the age of 65.
In upcoming years, the most numerous generations are approaching to the age of 65.
Furthermore, the proportion of the population over 65 years of age is expected to grow in the long run, owing to the steady decline in the number of younger age groups.
It's important to note that the overall decline in birth rate in Azerbaijan is spurred by the sex structure imbalance in favour of boys/men.
The decline in fertility due to changes in the reproductive patterns of society is difficult to reliably estimate.
It can only be assumed that due to historical traditional family attitudes transition to small one-child families in the short term is unlikely.
It can only be assumed that due to historical traditional family attitudes transition to small one-child families in the short term is unlikely.
Due to the positive effects of reducing mortality, life expectancy will continue to increase, especially in older ages.
It is likely that this factor will have the greatest impact on accelerating the population ageing in Azerbaijan.
It is likely that this factor will have the greatest impact on accelerating the population ageing in Azerbaijan.
Amid rapid economic growth from oil resources, the fertility level of Azerbaijan rose from 1.8 to a high of 2.4 over a nine-year period from 2002 to 2011 after decades of decline.
This raises the key question over whether the increased fertility level isthe preferred level in Azerbaijan, and whether it only declined because of the collapse ofthe Soviet Union?
The research by Alvergne and Lummaa (2014) in Mongolia, found that increasing wealth within regions leads to higher fertility.
Between regions, say urban and rural areas, higher wealth correlates to lower fertility outcomes.
This could be same for Azerbaijan.
Between regions, say urban and rural areas, higher wealth correlates to lower fertility outcomes.
This could be same for Azerbaijan.
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