I spoke to Eric Rosengren recently about monetary policy, and he sounded a bit concerned. We've posted an edited transcript of the interview here.
He worries raising short-term rates fast could be very unpredictable and makes a case for selling assets wsj.com/articles/trans…
The Fed "continued to do asset purchases for too long," said Rosengren. (He cited health reasons when he resigned from the Boston Fed last September, nine months ahead of a mandatory retirement, following scrutiny of his financial disclosures.)
Rosengren isn't suggesting that these type of active balance sheet sales are what the Fed *will* do, but he lays out the argument for why it would be a better way to tighten financial conditions and depress risk taking.
Rosengren says that the Fed's new framework was a reasonable thing to do at the time the Fed did it, but that the current environment is one the Fed's new framework wasn't at all designed to address
He warns against allowing frameworks to "straitjacket" policy when the data turn
The Fed's December projections, which suggested a very soft landing, are "looking much less likely now," says Rosengren, because of repeated supply shocks and labor-market expectations for wages and salaries that aren't consistent with 2% inflation. wsj.com/articles/trans…
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• JP Morgan (Fri): 5 hikes this year (Mar, May), 3 next year
• BofA (Fri): 7 this year (every meeting), 4 next year
• Morgan Stanley (Thurs): 4 this year (Mar, Jun)
• Deutsche Bank (Wed): 5 this year (Mar, May, Jun), 3 next year
All hikes are ¼ pt
Fed calls this week
• BNPP (Thurs): Six hikes this year, three next year
• Standard Chartered (Fri): Four this year (at the next four meetings), two next year
• Wells Fargo (Fri): Five this year (Mar, May, Jun), three next year
All hikes are ¼ pt
Fed calls this week
• UBS (Wed): 3 hikes this year (Mar, Jun, Sept)
• Barclays (Wed): 3 hikes this year (Mar, Jun, Sept)
• Jefferies (Fri): 5 hikes this year
A short thread on a few new items from the Fed's the 2016 FOMC transcripts:
Previously, the Fed released the "key" identifying the individual projections from the Summary of Economic Projections after a 10 year delay. In 2016, the FOMC agreed to do this after just 5 years.
(They didn't do this retroactively, so the names from previous years will still be released after 10 years).
The upshot is we can now see where half of current FOMC participants thought the unobserved variables like r-star and u-star were as of their Dec 2016 view of the economy
Back then, the unemployment rate had most recently been reported at 4.6%. Only one participant (Evans) thought the natural rate was lower.
Most officials, including Powell and Yellen, estimated a neutral fed-funds rate at 2.75%.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank should be aggressive in shrinking its balance sheet, allowing its holdings to decline by at least $100 billion a month reuters.com/business/feds-…
What Bostic is talking about here is allowing some but not all of the Fed's security holdings to mature without reinvesting principal every month.
In Oct '17, the Fed started by allowing $10 billion in securities to mature every month ($6B for Treasurys, $4B for MBS)
These amounts rose every quarter, so that by Oct '18, the Fed allowed $50 billion in securities to mature every month (Trump referred to this as the "50B's"). That was divided between $30 billion for Treasurys and $20 billion for MBS.
Several former Fed officials have commentaries today that all say the same thing.
Here's Larry Meyer: "Yes, the FOMC is behind the curve. A dangerous place to be, especially if the FOMC is very far behind the curve, as I believe is the case today."
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Former NY Fed President Bill Dudley says the central bank's latest economic projections amount to a dovish "fantasy" that inflation can return to 2% with rates gently rising up to 2% over the same three year timeframe
All signs are pointing to the Fed raising interest rates in March after another jobs report that shows an ever-tighter labor market wsj.com/articles/jobs-…
To understand how the Fed will react to this report, it is best to not pay much attention to the supposedly underwhelming payroll print. Those have been revised higher in recent months.
Instead, look at signs of labor market tightness via the:
• rising prime-age employment rate (it has jumped a full percentage point, from 78% to 79%, since August),
• a falling unemployment rate (U-6 is at 7.3%, just three tenths above Feb 2020 level),
• and rising wages.