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Feb 17 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is a good article, and although it underestimates likely Ukrainian resistance (IMO) it still hits all of the reasons why I still think a Russian invasion is likely.
Many people have a (healthy) distrust of "an intelligence official speaking on condition of anonymity" but this shouldn't become reflexive. It's easy to just look at OSINT and public statements by the Russian government and base conclusions off that.
This what I mean when I say that he underestimates Ukrainian resistance, though. The idea that infantry without air/indirect fire superiority "will disintegrate within hours, if not minutes" is something that has been proved false over and over again since WWI.
The US has had to learn this the hard way repeatedly:

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More from @StilichoReads

Stilicho Profile picture
Feb 18
What do Danish bog weapon deposits and Taliban "operators" in western equipment have in common?

They're both examples of an empire making its opponents more politically and militarily sophisticated.

THREAD: ImageImage
Throughout Denmark and southern Sweden, there are deposits of weapons and other military equipment from the Roman Iron age preserved in bogs. These were most likely votive offerings -- taken from defeated enemies and then given over to the deep to thank the gods for victory. Image
At sites like Illerup Ådal and Vimose in Denmark, for instance, there are the remnants of hundreds of spears, swords, shields, and personal military equipment ranging from belts and baldrics to bowls and combs from 2nd and 3rd centuries AD. Image
Read 15 tweets
Stilicho Profile picture
Feb 18
A thread with a few vignettes of modern warfare from Armies of Sand by Kenneth M. Pollack: Image
Iraqi generalship was actually pretty good during the 1st Gulf War, and the Republican Guard, at least, was cohesive enough to fight to the death. Their main problem was that their soldiers and junior officers were incredibly incompetent. ImageImageImage
The Iranian military was weakened by purges and the effects of the 1973 Revolution, but managed to use a combination of fanatical militia and their remaining mechanized troops to push back the Iraqi invasion. This was aided by poor Iraqi performance. ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Stilicho Profile picture
Jan 22
Did the Roman Empire have a secret police/intelligence service? Like many states, it had several, with duties that overlapped and varied over time. These included the Speculatores, Frumentarii, Areani, Agentes in Rebus, and even the Corps of Notories.
THREAD:
It should of course be rembered that much of this information is tentative - such units are, by definition, secretive. Still, information comes through in small amounts in sources and on the gravestones of soldiers.
The Speculatores were military scouts. Although mostly responsible for traditional reconnaissance, at least the Praetorian Guard's Speculatores under Galba, Otho, and the Flavian Dynasty, often worked in plainclothes and were responsible for close protection and assassination.
Read 16 tweets
Stilicho Profile picture
Jan 16
Julian was the last pagan Roman Emperor, but he was not the last pagan to hold power in Rome. Decades after his death, the pagan general Arbogast seized power after an Epstein-style imperial "suicide," leading a pagan revival while using the new emperor as a figurehead. THREAD:
Arbogast, a Frank from Asia Minor, began his career under the Western Emperor Gratian. He distinguished himself and quickly rose though the ranks. In 380, he was sent into the Eastern empire at the head of an army along with another general, Bauto (who may have been his father).
In 376, the Goths had been invited into the Eastern Empire as refugees. After revolting due to poor treatment, they wiped out the core of the Eastern army at Adrianople in 378, killing the Eastern Emperor Valens in the process.
Read 25 tweets
Stilicho Profile picture
Nov 10, 2021
The legendary King Alboin led the Lombards into Italy, destroyed the Gepids, defeated the Byzantines, and was immortalized in epic poetry as far away as Anglo-Saxon England - but was ultimately killed by his own wife. A thread:
Alboin was born in Pannonia, then the homeland of the Lombards, sometime in the 530s. His father, Audion, was their king, but this didn't automatically mean Alboin would be as well - Lombard kings were still chosen by an assembly of freemen. Both were still pagan.
The great enemy of the Lombards at this time were the Gepids, another Germanic tribe. Still a young man, Alboin distinguished himself in battle against them, at the Battle of Asfeld in 552, where he killed Turismod, son of the Gepid king Thurisind.
Read 22 tweets
Stilicho Profile picture
Oct 26, 2021
During the 4th century, the main split in Christianity was over the relation between God the Father and God the Son, and whether the Father created the Son. Emperor Constantine told both sides that it was "extremely trivial" and a "very silly question."
The belief that the Son was created by the Father is called Arianism, and while it is rejected by all modern dominations of Christianity, it was the religion of many of the Germanic kingdoms, including the Goths and the Vandals.
Constantine was probably a henotheist, worshipping Sol Invictus exclusively, before he converted, and he probably came to believe that the Christian God and Sol Invictus were the same. Most of his Imperial propaganda was just generically monotheistic.
Read 5 tweets

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