@KeithMcCullough $SHAK, $DKNG, $ROBU, $RBLX - more media darlings that have spit the bit this week.
Coming up on @TSTRMPro
Fame And Access Should Be Earned By Process and Not By Personality
* Beware of the hocus pocus 'cause when they get into trouble as the tide goes out --
they go into their dance
"They are shorting innovation and are simply not doing any research."
- Cathie Woods
Ten days ago I wrote the following column which bears repeating in this very challenging market backdrop.
The criticism is not an ad hominem attack on Cathie Woods, on the business media, or
on anyone else. Rather, it is a warning that must be made on a subject that few are willing to discuss.
And, it is an expression of the reality of the day - in the backdrop of an aging Bull Market.
We learn lessons, not during the salad days, but when things go sour.
Too many, dogmatic and uninformed "talking heads" get platforms not deserved - and it is only in a challenging market that we uncover that they are swimming naked.
"Undeserved praise causes more pangs of conscience later than undeserved blame,
but probably only for this reason - that our power of judgment are more completely exposed by being over praised than by being unjustly underestimated."
- Friedrich Nietzsche
Fame and access should be earned by process and not by personality..
Scott Wapner's brilliant @CNBC
interview yesterday with a non repentant Cathie Woods and the continued evisceration of former stock favorites like ROKU (and many others included in ARK Management's portfolios) reminded me of these words written in my Diary recently @tomkeene
Coming up on @realmoney on Tuesday:
Streaming and On Line Gambling Are Destined Towards "Profitless Prosperity" - Avoid the Stocks
* Three of the most dangerous words in an investors' lexicon are.. "total addressable market"
* A dead cat bounce is always possible but
challenges towards the road of profitability suggest the stocks are unattractive from a longer term standpoint ...
I often wonder why the investing world is prone to generalize, taking investing concepts to the heights of valuation. (Robinhood, Zoom, Peloton are recent examples
As someone who has been at odds with @KeithMcCullough for years (no more!) and is now a paying member of @hedgeye I recognize him as a valuable resource. His statement about mistakes is incredibly important and honest. There are so many in the Twittersphere that live with
vitriol, attacking ad hominem. They reside in the cheap seats and are shrouded in anonymity - never having been on the playing field. Real money managers make numerous mistakes but know how to control risk - that is the essence of alpha. Keith's process is rigorous and
not the scripted and non analytical sound bytes that we see too often daily in the business media. You will not be successful as an investor by skimming the surface - being miles long but only inches deep.
If you can't describe what you are doing as an investing process - as
From @realmoney today:
I am always in doubt - and often wrong - but here are some of my more confident views:
* The S&P has likely made an important, distributive and broad market top in early January, 2022.
* We are in a trading sardine market and not an eating sardine market.
* We have likely entered a heightened regime of volatility.
* The consensus expectations for U.S. economic and corporate growth are too high.
* The consensus forecasts for inflation are too low.
* The consensus view that supply chain interruptions and logistical issues will
be arrested by mid-2022 are probably too optimistic.
* Monetary policy has been too expansive for too long.
* The Federal Reserve will likely be more hawkish than most expect.
* When it's time to buy stocks, you won't want to.
* When its' time to sell stocks, you won't want to.
Feb 14, 2022 | 08:26 AM EST DOUG KASS
Every Silver Lining Has a Touch of Grey
* The top 10 things I am "almost" certain about
* Playing in the investing band incorporates challenges that too many underestimate
* We will get by... and survive
We are all playing in the investing band, looking for answers and superior returns.
We light a candle and, sometimes, curse the glare and draw the curtains.
The Grateful Dead's Jerry Garcia sang that he could "tell the future by looking what's in your hand."
But, despite the uber confidence of many - in both the music and investment management business - today we live in a world of economic, social, and market uncertainties in which the only certainty is the lack of certainty.
Coming up tomorrow on @realmoney
Every Silver Lining Has A Touch of Grey
* The top ten things I am certain about
* Playing in the investing band incorporates challenges that too many underestimate
* We will get by... and survive
We are all playing in
the investing band, looking for answers and superior returns.
We light a candle and, sometimes, curse the glare and draw the curtains.
The Grateful Dead's Jerry Garcia sang that he could "tell the future by looking what's in your hand."
But, despite the uber confidence of many
Fun fact.
My first (of 77 Grateful Dead concerts) was today, 53 years ago (!) at The Fillmore East in NYC...
Over the years I remember the huge crowds mooing as I entered and left the grounds, the people walking past you saying "doses" or "shrooms", the smells of patchouli oil
and good indica and sativa, the sounds you didn't think possible the band belted out, the look up in the sky for the mothership, the nitrous tanks kicked under the bus in a second as the police walked by, the rain and mud, the search for the car that took an hour,
the trip up in anticipation of what was to come and trip back thinking "that was the most unbelievable thing I ever saw, will I ever have another three days like this?" Been listening ever since.... Janis sang with the Dead that night - only three songs ending with "Piece of