From @realmoney today:
I am always in doubt - and often wrong - but here are some of my more confident views:
* The S&P has likely made an important, distributive and broad market top in early January, 2022.
* We are in a trading sardine market and not an eating sardine market.
* We have likely entered a heightened regime of volatility.
* The consensus expectations for U.S. economic and corporate growth are too high.
* The consensus forecasts for inflation are too low.
* The consensus view that supply chain interruptions and logistical issues will
be arrested by mid-2022 are probably too optimistic.
* Monetary policy has been too expansive for too long.
* The Federal Reserve will likely be more hawkish than most expect.
* When it's time to buy stocks, you won't want to.
* When its' time to sell stocks, you won't want to.
As someone who has been at odds with @KeithMcCullough for years (no more!) and is now a paying member of @Hedgeye I recognize him as a valuable resource. His statement about mistakes is incredibly important and honest. There are so many in the Twittersphere that live with
vitriol, attacking ad hominem. They reside in the cheap seats and are shrouded in anonymity - never having been on the playing field. Real money managers make numerous mistakes but know how to control risk - that is the essence of alpha. Keith's process is rigorous and
not the scripted and non analytical sound bytes that we see too often daily in the business media. You will not be successful as an investor by skimming the surface - being miles long but only inches deep.
If you can't describe what you are doing as an investing process - as
Feb 14, 2022 | 08:26 AM EST DOUG KASS
Every Silver Lining Has a Touch of Grey
* The top 10 things I am "almost" certain about
* Playing in the investing band incorporates challenges that too many underestimate
* We will get by... and survive
We are all playing in the investing band, looking for answers and superior returns.
We light a candle and, sometimes, curse the glare and draw the curtains.
The Grateful Dead's Jerry Garcia sang that he could "tell the future by looking what's in your hand."
But, despite the uber confidence of many - in both the music and investment management business - today we live in a world of economic, social, and market uncertainties in which the only certainty is the lack of certainty.
Coming up tomorrow on @realmoney
Every Silver Lining Has A Touch of Grey
* The top ten things I am certain about
* Playing in the investing band incorporates challenges that too many underestimate
* We will get by... and survive
We are all playing in
the investing band, looking for answers and superior returns.
We light a candle and, sometimes, curse the glare and draw the curtains.
The Grateful Dead's Jerry Garcia sang that he could "tell the future by looking what's in your hand."
But, despite the uber confidence of many
Fun fact.
My first (of 77 Grateful Dead concerts) was today, 53 years ago (!) at The Fillmore East in NYC...
Over the years I remember the huge crowds mooing as I entered and left the grounds, the people walking past you saying "doses" or "shrooms", the smells of patchouli oil
and good indica and sativa, the sounds you didn't think possible the band belted out, the look up in the sky for the mothership, the nitrous tanks kicked under the bus in a second as the police walked by, the rain and mud, the search for the car that took an hour,
the trip up in anticipation of what was to come and trip back thinking "that was the most unbelievable thing I ever saw, will I ever have another three days like this?" Been listening ever since.... Janis sang with the Dead that night - only three songs ending with "Piece of
Feb 11, 2022 | 08:00 AM EST DOUG KASS
You Don't Know Who Is Swimming Naked
Until the Tide Goes Out
* The Dunning- Kruger Effect is vividly seen these days in the business media and elsewhere
* Avoid the self confident and smug talking heads
Business commentators, strategists, analysts, money managers and "talking heads" have short memories - but I
don't and you shouldn't either.
It is one of my pet peeves that investment/trading losers are swept under the rug - as many of those that you are exposed to are selling you a service or seeking ratings/eyeballs to continue what has become almost a daily charade.
Good morning, here is what I wrote on @realmoney last week - it still holds:
Feb 03, 2022 | 09:10 AM EST DOUG KASS
It Looks Like Scenario #2!
* On Tuesday, February 1, I "adjusted my sails" and turned more negative into the amazing market rally that started in late January
* I remain defensive
"Scenario #2 (35% probability?) The S&P rallies from Monday's close of 4410 to 4500-4600 - to the right side of the head and shoulders pattern (below) and then we crack through the 200 day moving average, cracking below 4000"
- Kass Diary,
Remaining Flexible in my Short Term View
For a perspective, in my January 25, 2022 column, Remaining Flexible in My Short Term View, I mapped out three possible scenarios after the brutal January fall - the above Scenario #2 (in which I had attached a 35% probability) looks like