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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
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Feb 18 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
"Four people familiar with U.S. intelligence said that Russia has drafted lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian assault on Ukraine."
"A fifth person, a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the United States has been downgrading its intelligence classification regarding threats to specific groups within Ukraine to share this information with Ukrainian...officials" foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/18/rus…
"The Biden admin. has also been startled by how formalized the lists are, which appear to target anyone who could challenge the Russian agenda. Five Eyes ... partners have also tracked Russian intelligence agencies, such as the FSB and GRU, building up target and kill lists"
This very much fits with what @Jack_Watling and Nick Reynolds reported earlier this week in their RUSI report from Ukraine.

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More from @shashj

Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 17
Russia to US: "In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees … by the US and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of military-technical measures." kommersant.ru/doc/5218858
Russia: “In 2014, a coup d'état took place in Kiev, the initiators of which, with the support of the United States and its allies, set a course to create a nationalist state that infringes on the rights of the Russian and Russian-speaking population” kommersant.ru/doc/5218858?fr…
For those who think this is just about future Nato membership, good luck making sense of these new demands. Russia to US: “To de-escalate the situation around Ukraine, it is fundamentally important to take the following steps”. kommersant.ru/doc/5218858?fr…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 15
Incredibly detailed report on Ukraine by RUSI's @Jack_Watling and Nick Reynolds based on what looks like extensive interviews with Ukrainian military and intelligence officers over recent weeks
static.rusi.org/special-report…
"Meeting with Ukrainian security officials there is a widespread acknowledgement that many of their colleagues – even in some quite senior positions – are working for or sympathetic to Russia." static.rusi.org/special-report…
"there is believed to be around two companies of Russian covert special forces operating in Kyiv. For the Ukrainian security forces there is a significant risk at protests that Russian agent provocateurs ... will initiate acts of violence" static.rusi.org/special-report…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 12
“American officials said it was still unclear whether Mr. Putin had made a decision to invade. U.S. officials have picked up intelligence that Russia is considering Wednesday as the possible date for the start of military action” nytimes.com/2022/02/11/wor…
“Those officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information, acknowledged the possibility that the mention of a particular date could be part of a Russian disinformation effort.” nytimes.com/2022/02/11/wor…
Contra Sullivan, WSJ also says Biden told allies a decision made. “In a call with European leaders on Friday, Mr Biden said that the US now believes Mr Putin has made a decision to go ahead…& named specific dates when Washington believed it might happen” wsj.com/articles/senio…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 8
“Dans l’avion qui l’emmenait à Moscou, le président avait confié à quelques journalistes que l’idée d’une «finlandisation» de l’Ukraine faisait partie, entre autres sujets, des dossiers posés sur la table” lefigaro.fr/international/…
Macron: «Vladimir Poutine veut un changement profond de la politique de l’OTAN. Il faut trouver une solution pour que cet espace de sécurité qu’est l’OTAN cohabite avec la Russie. Un élément d’adéquation, c’est la non-adhésion de l’Ukraine à l’OTAN» lefigaro.fr/international/…
English: Macron "told some journalists that the idea of a "Finlandisation" of Ukraine was one of the issues on the table..."We have to find a solution so that this security space that is NATO coexists with Russia. One element of adequacy is Ukraine's non-membership of NATO"...'
Read 6 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 8
“According to French officials, there was an agreement not to undertake new military initiatives and to have a broad dialogue on Russian troop deployments…withdrawal of Russian troops from Belarus this month after the conclusion of huge joint exercises”
on.ft.com/3ryaIlh
Kremlin says 'French assertions that...Putin had promised...Macron that Moscow would not carry out new military initiatives around Ukraine for now were "not right". A French official said Putin had made the pledge during long talks in Moscow' reuters.com/world/europe/k…
Macron, arriving in Kyiv, contradicts Kremlin and says he did get assurances: "I obtained that there will be no degradation nor escalation"
themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/08/mac…
Read 5 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
Feb 7
'The senior official at the French presidency said the nucleus of the Western conflict with Putin lay “in the extension of NATO & the inclusion in it of countries from the former Soviet space,” which created “an area of volatility that has to be reduced.”' nytimes.com/2022/02/06/wor…
'France appears to be saying that Mr. Putin’s demands, which include pushing NATO back ... cannot ever be satisfied but that getting “to the heart of the matter” involves acknowledgment that NATO expansion created permanent grievances' nytimes.com/2022/02/06/wor…
'“We can take a step toward Putin, recognize he is not completely wrong,” said Justin Vaïsse, the former head of policy planning at the French foreign ministry who now heads the Paris Peace Forum.' nytimes.com/2022/02/06/wor…
Read 5 tweets

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