this is sobering foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
🧵 “For Russia, victory in Ukraine could take various forms. As in Syria, victory does not have to result in a sustainable settlement. It could involve the installation of a compliant government in Kyiv or the partition of the country. Alternatively, the defeat of the Ukrainian
“military and the negotiation of a Ukrainian surrender could effectively transform Ukraine into a failed state. Russia could also employ devastating cyberattacks and disinformation tools, backed by the threat of force, to cripple the country and induce regime change.
“With any of these outcomes, Ukraine will have been effectively detached from the West.”
… “If Russia achieves its political aims in Ukraine by military means, Europe will not be what it was before the war. Not only will U.S. primacy in Europe have been qualified; any sense that the EU or NATO can ensure peace on the continent will be the artifact of a lost age.”
“The US & Europe will also be in a state of permanent economic war with Russia. The West will seek to enforce sweeping sanctions, which Russia is likely to parry with cyber-measures and energy blackmailing…China might well stand on Russia’s side in this economic tit for tat.
“Meanwhile, domestic politics in European countries will resemble a twenty-first-century great game, in which Russia will be studying Europe for any breakdown in the commitment to NATO and to the transatlantic relationship.”
thread by co-author of the piece
https://twitter.com/LianaFix/status/1494817582867750913
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