Laura Rozen Profile picture
Feb 19 8 tweets 2 min read
🧵 “For Russia, victory in Ukraine could take various forms. As in Syria, victory does not have to result in a sustainable settlement. It could involve the installation of a compliant government in Kyiv or the partition of the country. Alternatively, the defeat of the Ukrainian
“military and the negotiation of a Ukrainian surrender could effectively transform Ukraine into a failed state. Russia could also employ devastating cyberattacks and disinformation tools, backed by the threat of force, to cripple the country and induce regime change.
“With any of these outcomes, Ukraine will have been effectively detached from the West.”
… “If Russia achieves its political aims in Ukraine by military means, Europe will not be what it was before the war. Not only will U.S. primacy in Europe have been qualified; any sense that the EU or NATO can ensure peace on the continent will be the artifact of a lost age.”
“The US & Europe will also be in a state of permanent economic war with Russia. The West will seek to enforce sweeping sanctions, which Russia is likely to parry with cyber-measures and energy blackmailing…China might well stand on Russia’s side in this economic tit for tat.
“Meanwhile, domestic politics in European countries will resemble a twenty-first-century great game, in which Russia will be studying Europe for any breakdown in the commitment to NATO and to the transatlantic relationship.”

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More from @lrozen

Feb 19
🧵 This from Fiona Hill is very interesting: “We don’t know how good [Putin’s] intel is. & in some cases, we think it might not be great, because he certainly hasn’t read the mood in Ukraine as well as you might have thought.” nytimes.com/2022/02/18/us/… Image
“He didn’t probably anticipate the Western resolve that he’s got in the form of NATO & European unity, but we don’t know what people are telling him.
People may be spinning to him that he’s done a great job — you know, that we’re all capitulating…” nytimes.com/2022/02/18/us/… Image
Hill also disagrees with Zelenskyy and some Congressional GOP that the US should impose new sanctions now before a possible further incursion the West is still trying to deter Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 18
Biden says what we have seen s a major uptick in violations of the ceasefire.
and more and more disinfo pushed out to the Russian public.
Biden: We have reason to believe Russian forces intend to attack ukraine in coming days
we believe they intend to attack Kyiv
Biden praises Ukrainian forces for showing professionalism and restraint, and refusing to date to get baited into a provocation
Read 5 tweets
Feb 17
Blinken addressing the UN Security Council now. Says implementation of the Minsk agreements is a goal we all share.
Blinken: As we meet today, the most immediate threat to peace and security is Russia’s looming aggression against Ukraine.
Blinken: I am here today not to start a war, but to prevent one.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 17
🧵A State Dept spox: We can confirm that Russia expelled U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) to Russia Bart Gorman.  DCM Gorman was the second-most senior official at U.S. Embassy Moscow after the Ambassador…1/
State spox: “Russia’s action against our DCM was unprovoked and we consider this an escalatory step and are considering our response.   

“DCM Gorman’s tour had not ended; he had a valid visa, and he had been in Russia less than three years.”
“We call on Russia to end its baseless expulsions of U.S. diplomats & staff & to work productively to rebuild our missions.  Now more than ever, it is critical that our countries have the necessary diplomatic personnel in place to facilitate communication betweenour governments
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
US Secretary of State Blinken will address a UN Security Council meeting this morning on Russia/Ukraine crisis, US Ambassador to UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield tells reporters
Amb. Linda Thomas-Greenfield: Overnight, after a series of conversations with the WH, NSC & State, I asked Sec. Blinken to come speak directly to UN Security Council on his way to Munich on situation in Ukraine. Evidence on ground suggests Russian moving towards imminent invasion
Amb. Linda Thomas-Greenfield: This is a crucial moment. That is why Blinken is coming to NY, to signal our intense concern, offer and emphasize path to de-escalation. Make clear to world we are doing everything we can, everything we can, to prevent a war.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 17
🧵SecDef Austin at NATO: we don’t see that. Quite the contrary, we see them add to the more than 150,000 troops they alredy have arrayed on that border, even in the last couple days....more support aircraft, blood supplies...
Austin: I was a soldier myself not that long ago...
Don’t do these sort of these things for no reason. Certainly don’t do them if getting ready to pack up and go home. So we will remain vigilant
Austin: We will watch for false flag ops...
Enhance our readiness...Closely match Russian words to Russian deeds. One thing Mr. Putin says- he wants to engage in more dialogue. As we have said all along, we would welcome that. We believe still time & space for diplomacy to work.
Read 4 tweets

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