I am beginning to think that the PM may even be slightly better off (72-96 hours later) with a fixed penalty notice & this argument, than how it plays out if others are fined while he is not.
https://twitter.com/LizzyBuchan/status/1495320658913505282
A fixed penalty notice may/may not trigger the letters and confidence vote.
If PM not fined, will be majority scepticism about decision & the policing. In this scenario, new photos released next 48 hours can damage PM (& police) badly.
With a fine, new photo impact much less?
If PM not fined, will be majority scepticism about decision & the policing. In this scenario, new photos released next 48 hours can damage PM (& police) badly.
With a fine, new photo impact much less?
If the PM wants to survive not 6 months, but to a General Election, he has to turn this around, with the public, not just get let off by the police.
That is difficult, but its arguably harder to do that & move on *without* a fine, than with one, given pretty firm public views.
That is difficult, but its arguably harder to do that & move on *without* a fine, than with one, given pretty firm public views.
'In the clear' looks like it has a 10-20% market of strong loyalists. Getting this 25% for not resigning towards 40% approval requires contrition, moving on, new focus, etc. I think a row about the policing if broad perceptions it was stitched up could reinforce negatives more.
There are dangers in this argument too - but it provides a line which can be drawn to treat all new photos as part of a closed episode.
Being cleared on a technicality looks a bigger opportunity for whoever may be holding the most damaging image(s) back
Being cleared on a technicality looks a bigger opportunity for whoever may be holding the most damaging image(s) back
https://twitter.com/DisruptivePoltx/status/1495334097975132162?t=kYizJauRzGkXwgxmHRxhPA&s=19
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