1/ Being on a board of directors with @wolfejosh has been an amazingly enjoyable and educational experience. He's always prepared, informed, contributes and has fun.
Josh believes: "edge can derive from informational, analytical or behavioral sources." 25iq.com/2018/07/07/les…
2/ If you work on a team that runs a business you can acquire an edge versus people who only invest and don't have your source of edge.
"To make money, you must find something that nobody else knows, or do something that others won’t do."
3/ One of my sources of edge is the ability to value certain businesses by using DCF analysis. That's what anyone running a business learns to do. If you do this for decades you get better at it.
Is it easy? No. Can I do every company? No. Do I have an edge in doing it? Yes.
4/ Anyone who says they've done a DCF for scores of stocks is fooling themselves or raising more money from investors. The greater your focus, the better your DCF. But it's hard to raise money by investing in just a few stocks. People can just copy your work without paying fees.
5/ An easier way to raise money is to have a portfolio of many stocks based on ratios which are a shortcut for a DCF (i.e., the assumptions are buried). Embrace complexity!
People do trade stocks without valuing the business, but it's not a source of edge (or fun) for me. Pass!
6/ Almost everyone uses heuristics and investing is no exception. Some people drill down fundamentally on a small number of stocks after the rough heuristic-based sort is done. My drill down on fundamentals is DCF analysis. It's not the only way to invest, but it's my way.
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1/ Charlie Munger: "We invested money in China. I feel about Russia the way Gundlach feels about China. I don’t invest in Russia so I can’t criticize Gundlach’s point of view. I reached a different conclusion. If he’s nervous, he doesn’t have to join us." junto.investments/daily-journal-…
2/ "On balance, we prefer the risks we have to those we’re avoiding and we don’t mind a tiny little bit of margin debt. When you buy Alibaba, you do get sort of a derivative. But assuming there’s a reasonable honor among civilized nations, that risk doesn’t seem that big to me."
3/ Charlie Munger: "We’ve gotten an absence of world wars for a long time because we had these nuclear weapons. But it does make you nervous every once in a while and it’s quite irresponsible when the leaders in the modern age get tensions over border incidents and so forth."
3/ A recent example of how stories work as a teaching tool is Morgan Housel's book The Psychology of Money. The huge sales of Morgan's book are an example of a power law at work. He wrote a grand slam. If you want more readers or viewers, tell more stories.infiniteloops.libsyn.com/tren-griffin-w…
"Starlink Premium users can expect download speeds of 150-500 Mbps and latency of 20-40ms, enabling high throughput connectivity for small offices, storefronts, and super users across the globe" starlink.com/premium
This is a new Starlink service apparently aimed at non-residential customers.
Mobile capacity management is harder.
"The first premium deliveries will begin second quarter. Unlike the standard product, which only guarantees service at a specific service address, SpaceX says Starlink Premium is capable of connecting from anywhere." cnbc.com/amp/2022/02/02…
Do food delivery companies that spend this much on customer acquisition have issues around product/market fit? Or are they trying to acquire scale economies and benefit from a positive feedback loop?
Subsidized goods or services aren't COGS, but instead are in-kind CAC.
Andy Rachleff: “You know you have product/market fit if your product grows exponentially with no marketing. That is only possible if you have huge word of mouth. Word of mouth is only possible if you have delighted your customer.”
Until a delivery business establishes superior liquidity, it is vulnerable. Part of liquidity is more delivery people available which is a function of more transaction volume. Density of transactions can generate positive feedback. You're at the mercy of your stupidest competitor
1/ Brian Arthur: "Complexity economics sees the economy as not necessarily in equilibrium, its decision makers (or agents) as not super-rational, the problems they face as not necessarily well-defined and the economy not as a perfectly humming machine." nature.com/articles/s4225…
2/ "Complexity economics assumes that agents differ and that they have imperfect information about other agents. The resulting outcome may not be in equilibrium and may display patterns and emergent phenomena not visible to equilibrium analysis." nature.com/articles/s4225…
3/ "Because assumptions are a widening of the neoclassical ones, complexity economics is neither a special case of equilibrium economics nor an addition to it. Complexity economics sees the economy not as mechanistic, static, timeless and perfect but as organically."
1/ "In the '73, '74 downturn, Rick Guerin was levered with margin loans. And the stock market went down almost 70% in those two years, and so he got margin calls out the yin-yang, and he sold his Berkshire at under $40 because he was levered." finance.yahoo.com/news/case-stud…
2/ "We got drubbed by the 1973 to 1974 crash, not in terms of true underlying value, but by quoted market value, as our publicly traded securities had to be marked down to below half of what they were really worth,’’ said Munger.
3/ "In 1974 and 1975, as confident as Buffett was, projecting out his future wealth from currently depressed point A to future point B, there were almost certainly times that a bit of fear rose in his throat too." Seth Klarman barrons.com/articles/SB918…