Looking at the potential returns for $PANR, I found we could expect a return of between x9.4 - 14.1 on today's share price of ~130p, or between US$16 - 25p/sh in a buyout if we are able to derisk the underground assets. Here's how I came up with that value... #panr $pthrf #pthrf
I first adjusted Canacorrd Gunuity's Dec. model to have updated data prior to trading today. Their report originally had a target of 200p, but I updated that to incl. the Kuparuk as later notes say a target of 220p - I have assumed this was included and rounded down $panr #panr
Focusing on Canacorrds TP basis section, they have a return of x1.7 at a value of $3.07p/sh, but this was highly risked at $1/bbl, which is not representative of actual sale management would approve of. $panr #panr
Using their $5.4/bbl, which is 9% of Canacorrds WTI est. price of $60, we can extend this out to $8.1 at today's oil prices($90), likewise, using Oil Search's Acquisition of Alaskan assets in 2017, we could see their ave. value of $5.4 supported. $panr #panr $pthrf #pthrf
Putting this together gives us a low-end value of $5.4/bbl as per CG and the OS Aqc. and an upside of $8.1/bbl, or between $16-25p/sh, or 9.4-14.1 times the current share price. i.e if you invested $1000 on Friday, you could see this grow to between $9,400 and $14,000 $panr #panr
This is without any resource upgrade that might come as a result of the testing we have on at the moment. It should also be noted that Telemachus mentioned $5 is a realistic price. "A buyout would likely be pitched nearer $5 per barrel…"
A lot needs to happen between a sale and today, so I wouldn't expect this in any time frame under 6-12 months, but it's certainly possible.
It should be noted I based this on @CanaccorGenuity's Dec valuation update, and have used much of their research. All prices are USD unless otherwise mentioned. #panr $panr Here is their report research-tree.com/companies/uk/o…
Also, I reference Telemachus, who is certainly much more experienced and everyone should check out his post here.. #panr $panr reddit.com/r/PantheonReso…
This is not financial advice and only an exercise in personal learning and entertainment.
If you like this, please feel free to follow @diegodoesdo as I will put out more info as it comes available on $PANR and other companies. Here is another post I made the other day showing the size potential of Theta West.
Apologies, that image was wrong, I had updated but included an old version of the image. Here is the correct amount at $5.58p/bbl

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More from @diegodoesdo

Feb 22
Good to see #Metgasco raising $5m to support drilling of Cervantes and the Vali gas field development. Exciting times ahead. $mel #mel #ASX #smallcaps Image
“The terms of the placement were: an issue price of 2.6c/share. Options are to be issued to placement participants on a 1 for 3 basis, with a strike price of 4.5c, expiring 10 December 2024, with issuance of options subject to shareholder approval.” #mel $mel
“Funds from the Placement and will be used to fund Metgasco’s Cervantes#1 oil well (targeting P50 resource of 15.3MMbls gross/4.6 MMbls net) and to strengthen corporate balance sheet for ongoing project development and new business initiatives.” #mel $mel
Read 4 tweets
Feb 21
$PANR have successfully flow tested the Slope Fan System (SFS). They were looking for movable oil at 35-42 API, both of which were achieved. This should further support $PANR testing regimen this winter.
"On the final day of testing the well was flowing at a sustained rate of approx 32BOPD from this combined 10ft of perforations which is highly encouraging given production wells on the ANS are drilled horizontally which would typically result in materially higher flowrates" #panr
$PANR also encountered issues with Theta West when a contractor put cement in the casing rather than outside of it. Which will cause delays but won't affect the previous and testing will continue. $panr #panr
Read 4 tweets

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