Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ASX

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Overnight we published this ad about @DeutscheBank’s #coal funding in @DIEZEIT, one of Germany’s most read newspapers. Deutsche Bank must not arrange finance for Whitehaven Coal, a company that is planning THREE new or expanded coal mines. #Thread 🧵
Deutsche Bank claims to support the #ParisAgreement and #NetZero2050. Last year the @IEA concluded that #NetZero2050 means “no new coal mines or mine extensions”. More recently, the @IPCC warned yet again that limiting global warming to 1.5ºC means urgently phasing out coal.
Since 2013, Deutsche Bank has loaned to Whitehaven Coal, the largest #pureplay coal mining corporation listed on the #ASX. In February 2020, Deutsche Bank was part of a group of banks that loaned a combined $1 billion to Whitehaven.
Read 8 tweets
Today I’m turning over rocks using a popular heuristic to find hidden gems from the illiquid microcap universe to add to my watchlist.

I'll go through my process and the three companies:
🛵V-Moto $VMT
♻️Close the Loop $CLG
🩸Cryosite $CTE

Let's turn over some rocks 👇
@iancassel recently discussed with @TreyLockerbie his strategy to microcap investing, which I am butchering here in my investment research process. Worth the listen.

His framework includes:
First, I ruled out mining and energy as I want long term compounders.

Then, I ruled in only profitable companies (PE<30) because I am focusing on those past the inflection point.

From 1,629 microcaps on the #ASX microcaps, it was reduced to 112.
Read 24 tweets
Good to see #Metgasco raising $5m to support drilling of Cervantes and the Vali gas field development. Exciting times ahead. $mel #mel #ASX #smallcaps
“The terms of the placement were: an issue price of 2.6c/share. Options are to be issued to placement participants on a 1 for 3 basis, with a strike price of 4.5c, expiring 10 December 2024, with issuance of options subject to shareholder approval.” #mel $mel
“Funds from the Placement and will be used to fund Metgasco’s Cervantes#1 oil well (targeting P50 resource of 15.3MMbls gross/4.6 MMbls net) and to strengthen corporate balance sheet for ongoing project development and new business initiatives.” #mel $mel
Read 4 tweets
Just read your article on optionsxo
I concur with your thoughts on #tomerlevi he was central to these scams
#tomerlevi was named as the owner in court filing against #toromedia #binaryoptions #scam… Image
I came across these thieves while looking at $isx customer Insightgroup OU. #isignthis was (I guess still is) seeking $1.6m damages from @ASX why? apparently #insightgroup was so infuriated by the "false" #ASX claims against #isignthis it terminated its services. @FinTelegram Image
Read 15 tweets
⚠️ Updated 4/10/21

Lessons Learnt Prologue #asx

None of this is financial advice, just my experiences I wish to share

I was a beginner in the market once and wanted to share my experiences trading

I update this once a year as it helps me define my personal trading journey
Introduction - About Me #asx

I came from a working class family that struggled to pay the bills and earned my own pocket money by starting a car wash business in my neighbourhood when I was just 10 years old.
It was tough growing up in a family where the nicest reward was a hot chocolate out once a week. During high school I worked my ass off at a night job as well as selling weed on the side which my mate ended up being jailed for.
Read 40 tweets
Genex $GNX $GNX.AX is a renewable energy developer with a focus on firming through pumped hydro and batteries. After 6yrs in the sin bin for epic delays, what's changed?

@ElephantCapita2 will also share his technical analysis to answer 'why now?'

Let’s take a deep dive.👇
1. Investment thesis: Turnaround / Asset play.

A high CAPEX company, in a growing sector, potential takeover target, progressed through multiple de-risking events, but due to failures since IPO in 2015 its priced markedly below fair value.

Potential to become a stalwart?🤷
2. Growing demand for renewables.

There’s a long tailwind of renewable energy growth, both as total consumption increases and renewables replace fossils. Wind, solar and other (inc. bioenergy) are growing, and Genex is positioning itself in that super fast growing space.
Read 25 tweets
Tassal $TGR $TGR.AX reported their FY21 results to a mute market response. So, what happened that made the share price do basically nothing when it’s the 7th most shorted (7.5% shares) company on the #ASX?

My six key takeaways 👇 Image
To recap my investment thesis I am betting that Tassal can double revenue, triple EBITDA, and quadruple cash flow / dividends from FY20 to FY30. This report has done nothing to dampen my expectations.

You can see my previous deep dives here 👇
The results for FY21 and 2H21 were weak, impacted heavily by covid headwinds. I won’t repeat the investor presentation - for those interested, it’s just a click away:… Image
Read 13 tweets
Huon $HUO $HUO.AX is the #2 salmon aquaculture business on the #ASX, and is in the midst of a takeover bid from Brazilian JBS at a 38% premium to it's recent price.

So, what does this mean for Tassal $TGR $TGR.AX, the #1 salmon aquaculture business?

Let's take a look.👇
Huon was a turnaround / asset play. The turnaround thesis is that they could improve their operating margins and FCF on what was once a great business; the asset thesis is that you can't readily get licenses for salmon aquaculture anymore. Timing was never certain..
The bid from JBS $JBSAY unleashes all that value for Huon shareholders today - including the Bender family that owns ~53% of the stock and is behind the 'strategic review'.…
Read 10 tweets
The great thing with investing is letting your research take you to interesting and new areas. I've been looking at fish stocks (pun intended) for longer than any sane person probably should.🤪

Here's a primer on the #ASX aquaculture sub-sub-sub-industry. 👇
Aquaculture is farmed fish or seafood. It's been around for millennia (for the history buffs, check the link below).

Interestingly agriculture went through green and blue revolutions post 1970s, and aquaculture arguably is going through that now.…
The Australian fisheries as a sector isn't really expected to grow much at all according to ABARES ... Image
Read 25 tweets
Utilities are a great defensive stock in times of uncertainty. And with the renewable revolution underway, electric utilities have a multi-decade long tailwind.

But, Australian utilities have been a value trap. Is there an alternative?

Let’s take a deep dive 👇 Image
1. Investment Thesis: Investing in utility stalwarts that are stable during times of recession or equity bubbles.

Not very sexy, but can one get +10% IRR and anchor your portfolio allowing others to do the heavy lifting?

h/t @Alpaca_Capital for suggesting this post Image
2. Let’s define what we mean by utilities. Generally, they are 1) electricity & sometimes gas, 2) telecommunications, or 3) water and sewage.

Today we’re going to focus on #1: electric utilities that may have gas. Image
Read 26 tweets
Ten Ways To Say 'No!'

Recently I profiled the health sector on the #ASX taking a top-down look for compounders, and skimming all 182 listed stocks to identify candidates for further research. I found 10.

Let's take 10 shallow dives!👇

1. Saying ‘No’ is the polar opposite for clickbait on Fintwit. But I don't care.

For me it’s an important part of my research – I start top-down looking for sectors based themes using one of six investment thesis, and then hone in on the best company to play that. Image
2. Investment thesis: Quality, Value, Stalwart.

Preferably but not essential a compounder through roll-ups in a fragmented industry. I'm agnostic to market cap and sub-sector, but specifically avoiding high-risk bets on R&D outcomes (think: health tech, biopharma). Image
Read 25 tweets
Midway $MWY $MWY.AX closes it's negotiations with the Japanese and Chinese, surely today's most anticipated #ASX announcement 😉

Let's have a quick look at how our investment thesis is unfolding 👇
There was a recent announcement by Midway on their FY20 results, confirming for me that essentially the bottom of the cycle has passed.

I won't go through it again, but check out that analysis and my initial deep dive here👇

Midway this morning has released it’s Japanese and Chinese price negotiations, with increases of ~8% for FY22 on increasing volumes.

This is a 'return to normal' but not 'peak cycle' prices - to be honest, was hoping for a bit more, but the big shift still expected in FY22+
Read 12 tweets
For good reason, folks are looking for inflation-proof yield-generating real assets. Agricultural land and primary industries are definitely in the spot light, and Rural Funds $RFF.AX $RFF has been on a tear.

But did you know your dividends will be unfranked and grossed down?👇
Before we get into divvies, a quick plug to a previous post on agricultural land, inflation and real asset plays on the #ASX 👇

And here is a primer on Rural Funds and why I am bullish on their underlying assets and their income-generating funds from operations. 👇

Read 18 tweets
Sonic Health $SHL $SHL.AX is Australia’s largest listed imaging and diagnostics healthcare company that’s taken on the world. Will this stalwart continue its Covid-sponsored run?

Let’s take a deep dive! 👇 Image
1. Investment Thesis: A stalwart; with Covid and long-term tailwinds; good management; runway for organic and acquisitive growth in a still fragmented market; and historically a decent safe dividend yield. Image
2. Full disclosure, I first owned Sonic in 2010, and sold in 2015. It kept running, but not very fast. I considered in mid 2020 buying at $26, but anchor bias made me think $22 from March 2020 was better and I sat on the sidelines! Image
Read 25 tweets
Today I’m going to explore the #healthcare sector on the #ASX. It’s the 3rd largest sector being ~10% of the index with 182 companies (behind financials ~28% and materials ~21%). The wild wild west of pharma is anything but boring, and today we’re on the hunt for compounders. Image
Healthcare in 🇦🇺 has had some spectacular successes. You can’t start an overview without mentioning CSL $CSL $CSL.AX that is now $135bn market cap and 6.5% of the ASX200. Though the next biggest health stocks is only $15bn, and 100 of 182 are <$100m, so the pool is quite thin. Image
Looking for the proverbial needle, I did a shallow dive on the 182 stocks that make up the sector, painstakingly categorizing them based on their ‘investability’.

The chart below summarises what I found. Image
Read 22 tweets
Midway $MWY $MWY.AX is Australia’s largest pure-play woodfibre company on the #ASX, exporting woodchips for pulp and paper to Asia. Covid-19 prices have recovered, hard and fast. Is the sun about to shine on this cyclical?

Let’s take a deep dive. 👇
1. Investment Thesis: Cyclical. Midway treaded water during the lean periods, and with pulp & paper prices on a tear they’re in a perfect position to benefit. Paying bottom cycle prices of 65c in the dollar. Short to medium term hold, no need for 💎👐
2. Midway is a small cap ($93M MC, $133m EV), with operations dating back to 1980. Midway was first listed in 2016 and keeps much of the same management in place. A fully integrated woodchip company from plantation, harvest, processing and exporting.
Read 25 tweets
A2 Milk $A2M $A2M.AX is a scientific-based dairy company specialising in infant formula, liquid milk and social marketing. Is there life left in this once-quality now bargain-basement company? Let’s take a deep dive.
1. Investment Thesis: Turnaround of a fast grower. A2M has been beaten up due to poor FY21 results, with investors seeking to buy quality at a wonderful price with possibly a low left tail risk. #ASX #NZX
2. Scientific Edge. A2 Milk markets itself on the A2 protein as a healthier option (improved gut health, helps lactose intolerant people, etc). This is a “super premium product” which plays strong in the infant nutrition market.
Read 22 tweets
Tassal Group $TGR $TGR.AX are a Tier 1 #ASX aquaculture firm. Having been the most shorted stock on the ASX at ~14%, the tide has turned as global salmon prices have run +50%. Is it too late to get on the Fish?

Time to update our deep dive. 👇
1. This link is to the original deep dive (required reading), which wasn’t that long ago. At that time, the stock price was still falling (~$3.35) while the fundamentals perhaps had just started to stabilize. The 1H21 report came out shortly after.

2. Tassal’s Performance: 1H21 had significant headwinds – lower global salmon prices, increased costs of exporting. Despite solid salmon sales and resilient EBITDA, the NPAT was smashed and dividends followed. But the devil is in the detail..
Read 25 tweets
New Energy Solar $NEW $NEW.AX is an Australian/US renewable energy developer and operator.

A renewable energy company Trading at 37% discount to NAV undergoing a restructure following a strategic review?

Let’s take a deep dive.👇 Image
1. Investment thesis: A special situation/asset play. Undervalued due to management issues and recent poor solar performances; seeking to gain from a narrowing of the discount to NAV through divesting non-core / Australian assets; could be a turnaround with improved management.
2. Macro. Renewable energy is an undoubted megatrend as we transition our energy mix. Solar is well passed its inflection point, and represents 10% of current generation, growing the most at 25% yoy or $130bn pa. Image
Read 22 tweets
Amcor $AMCR $AMC.AX $AMC is a dual #ASX #NYSE listed global leader in consumer packaging. Tracing its routes to 1860 in Australia, more recently it has become known as a Dividend Artisocrat after its Bemis acquisition. Is boring really beautiful? Let’s take a deep dive. 👇 Image
Disclaimer – if you accidentally are reading this because you think I have some deep insight into AMC Entertainment about to 🚀🚀🚀to Mars - sorry folks, but I don’t do memes and stonks, just good ‘ol fashioned value-based investing. Ciao. Image
1. Investment thesis: A stalwart, in a growing market, with a long history, a target IRR of 10-15%, at a good valuation, and with shareholder-empathetic management. Put simply, a buy and hold as part of the core portfolio.
Read 21 tweets
Tassal Group $TGR $TGR.AX are a Tier 1 #ASX aquaculture firm specialising in salmon and expanding into prawns. For 1.5 years their stock price has been beaten down and now have 2nd highest shorts on the ASX. But, the company continues growing. Let's do a deep dive.
1) Macro. Population growth (+1% CAGR) and shifting consumer preferences (2-3% CAGR) provide a tailwind for salmon production and consumption in Australia. Image
2) Macro. Wild harvest has already been replaced by aquaculture in salmon Image
Read 19 tweets
$RAC.AX #asx #oncology #cancer

@RaceOncology could be a 2021 #ASX 10+ bagger

Why follows in this thread. First watch the strategy video.


Bisantrene was shown decades ago to be safe and effective in both Acute Myeloid Leukaemia (AML) and Breast Cancer. It was then forgotten (more on this later).

Importantly -

Bisantrene works.

Bisantrene is safe.

Safety and efficacy are the two key tests for drug approval.

Safe and effective oncology drugs are snapped up early.

That means mostly during or following Phase I or II trials or sometimes during the preclinical stage.

Phase II assets for USD $2.5B (average).

/3 Image
Read 30 tweets

Extremely undervalued #gold play. 17% return p.a compounded over the last 10 years.

Let’s start with some history: Image
2/ $TBR is a gold producer & explorer listed on the #ASX in 1989. Anton Billis is founder & still CEO. The major asset for $TBR is the East Kundana Joint Venture (EKJV), in Western Australia. $TBR holds a 36.75% interest in #EKJV. Billis first pegged the EKJV in the late 80's. Image
3/ $RND, sister company to $TBR (same founder / ceo) holds a 12.25% interest, the current operator and JV partner, $NST, holds a 51% interest in the EKJV. Open pit mining started here in 2006 and there are three deposits currently being worked.
Read 23 tweets
$XAO 2H chart. I don't trade this so why bother to chart it? For me it's a sentiment indicator or (tide) gauge to help decide when I should or should not take trade setups. I want the downtrend broken (1) and then (2) my sentiment lies where price settles in the S-R zones
If the reactions make new lows or the rallies make new highs I adjust the S-R zones. If price breaks out of the channel and then makes a new low I redraw the channel. If price makes a new high followed by higher low I draw an up channel etc etc
I do something similar with $GOLD and $SPX S&P500 because generally leading sentiment indicators for (1) #asx gold stocks and (2) $XAO
Read 3 tweets

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