Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
Feb 21 12 tweets 4 min read
LIVE: Putin addressing Russia.

Announces recognition of LNR and DNR. Laments collapse of Russian Empire and Soviet Union.
Putin characterizes Ukraine as a corrupt country controlled by oligarchs.

He says the West funded the violent overthrow of the legitimate Ukrainian government.
Putin is now listing atrocities that were committed by Ukrainian nationalists.

He highlights the burning alive of innocent people in the trade union of Odessa.

Says Russia will punish those responsible – leaves unstated how they will be captured.
Putin accuses Ukraine of "derussification."

Blames government in Kiev for attempting to purge the Russian language and culture from the country.
Putin accuses Ukraine of cooperating with Islamic terrorists against Crimea.

Says Ukraine is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

Claims Ukraine poses a threat to Russia's national security, but is protected by the West.
Putin says it is irrelevant that Ukraine might not become a member of NATO tomorrow.

Says it could be "the day after tomorrow." Makes no difference from the historical perspective.

Argues that de facto NATO bases are already in Ukraine.
WOAH: Putin publicly reveals for the first time that he approached Bill Clinton about Russia joining NATO.
Putin says that Russian intelligence indicates Ukrainian membership in NATO is only a matter of time.

Says the danger to Russia's security will exponentially increase, due to danger to Russian homeland from missiles based in Ukraine.

Rhetoric similar to Cuban missile crisis.
Putin claims that Russia is threatened with sanctions without any reason – simply because it "exists."

Claims that the true goal of the West is simply to stop Russia from growing stronger, being sovereign.
Putin blames the West for being in denial about a genocide being carried out against 4 million people in Donbas.

Says that, because Ukraine only recognizes a military solution, Russia will sign treaties with LNR & DNR.
🚨Putin makes the most direct threat yet against Ukraine.

He says that those who seized power in Kiev must cease all military actions against the Donbas.

If they don't, they will bear responsibility for the consequences...

This is a threat of war. Period. 🚨
The speech has ended.

President Putin sounded very much like a national leader preparing his country for armed conflict.

It is clear that he does not expect a peaceful solution to the crisis – and that he is ready to lead Russia to war.

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More from @ClintEhrlich

Feb 23
There's a powerful lobby pushing for a "no-fly zone" over Ukraine.

If Biden listens to them, he will start a shooting war with Russia.

This is not a drill. It's the closest we've been to World War 3 since the Cuban Missile Crisis. 🧵 Image
First, it's important to understand the history of "no-fly zones" as a concept.

They are a purely modern phenomenon – one that was *never* employed by the U.S. during the Cold War – because enforcing an NFZ against the USSR would have risked nuclear war. Image
The first NFZ was established over Iraq after the Gulf War, in order to prevent Saddam from further gassing the Kurds from the air.

It was a half-measure between war and peace.

America and its partners would not invade, but it would deny Iraq the use of its own airspace. Image
Read 17 tweets
Feb 16
I'll put my reputation on the line: There is now zero chance that Russia suddenly invades Ukraine.

It doesn't mean the crisis is over – far from it – but the "sudden invasion" scenario is off the table.

Here's why. 🧵
Today, Russia claimed that it began withdrawing forces after the completion of drills around Ukraine.

This has been disputed by NATO, who argues that the Russians have not meaningfully drawn down their troop numbers.

In theory, a sudden attack remains viable.
In reality, Russia's current expenditures of diplomatic capital make that implausible.

Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said today "will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed."

She said the West has been "shamed and destroyed without firing a single shot."
Read 11 tweets
Feb 13
Will Russia invade Ukraine during the Super Bowl?

In Tom Clancy's "The Sum of All Fears," the Kremlin did not understand the significance of the Super Bowl.

In real life, Russia's government knows exactly what "the Big Game" means to America. 🧵 Image
From a tactical level, the timing of such an operation is plausible.

Russia has the forces in place, and kickoff will be at 3:30AM Kiev time.

However, I believe it's very unlikely that this scenario would play out.
First, it wouldn't advance Russia's grand strategy.

The PSYOPs effect inside America of disrupting the Super Bowl with live updates from a Ukraine invasion would be immense.

But Russia's goals in Ukraine have very little to do with traumatizing the American homeland.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 10
Did you hear about the Russian teenager sentenced to 5 years in prison for playing Minecraft?

The story is all over Western media.

Too bad it's fake news. 🧵
The story you've been told is that the kid was just having fun in a video game.

That he and his friends were planning to blow up a *virtual* FSB building.

This makes the case sound harmless, like it involves activity that would be protected in America by the First Amendment.
Critics of Vladimir Putin are trying to use the case as proof that he is a dictator.

Garry Kasporov says "[i]f there's anything you didn't know about Putin's Russia" the case "says it all."

"Dictators care about symbols, so virtual is as bad as real."
Read 11 tweets
Feb 9
Western media is claiming that Vladimir Putin made horrifying, graphic comments about Ukraine.

They say he threatened to rape the country's dead body.

Don't believe the story. This is fake news. 🧵
Putin was talking about the Minsk Protocol – the ceasefire agreement to end the war in Donbas, which hasn't been complied with.

He noted that Zelensky, Ukraine's President, had expressed dislike for one point in the agreement.

That's where the controversy arises.
The point Putin was making is that, whether or not Zelensky likes the terms of the ceasefire, he has a duty to comply with them.

He uttered a rhyme to that effect: «Нравится, не нравится — терпи, моя красавица.»

"Nravitsya, ne nravitsya, terpi, maya krasavitsa."
Read 11 tweets
Feb 6
This is what the Biden administration has resorted to?

Warning China that it "risks embarrassment" if Russia invades Ukraine?

Three quick thoughts on why this is a horrible look 🧵
1. China does not have the ability to dictate Russia's military decisions on Ukraine.

Their security partnership is strong, but Kazakhstan is a recent example of its limits.

As soon as Russia believes its national security is threatened, it will act without China's approval.
2. The stick being used to coerce China here is not credible.

It's true that "losing face" is something undesirable in Chinese culture.

But China would not be participating in a Ukrainian operation, so it would not be embarrassed by simply staying neutral.
Read 4 tweets

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