Thread by @JackNiewold

Russia, the United States, Ukraine, WW3, and Crypto.

Bears vs. Bulls

A megathread.

1st: I know nearly nothing about foreign policy, Russian politics, war, and the intricacies of the Ukraine conflict.

Thus, my duty today will not be SOLELY to present some news and the opinions of others.

And I'll be relating everything back to crypto.

We'll begin with...

1. THE BEAR CASE

tl;dr: WW3 is bad for the economy

• Markets don't like uncertainty
• War creates uncertainty
• Uncertain war creates more uncertainty
• Crypto is highly correlated with the stock market

Thanks to the narrative of crypto as a Store of Value, when the dollar is strong, $BTC isn't.

And when war happens, the USD is strong.

https://twitter.com/FXstreetNews/status/1493502381086101506?s=20&t=k4mxPYBht19N2vdUf6F8PQ

Investors simultaneously move back to gold as crypto SoV narratives fade due to wild volatility.

Sanctions negatively affect crypto domestically as restrictions get placed on crypto assets:

https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/1487788505812066309?s=20&t=CgebD1GaGP0ON0CHR0ZLTA

When war breaks out, investors are completely risk-off as no one has much idea of what's going on.

• USD ⬆️
• Bonds ⬆️
• Gold/Silver ⬆️
• Crypto ⬇️

Then, war, in the best case, causes years of crabbing-along, sideways markets (if you're winning).

But if you're losing, it's REALLY bad.

This uncertainty and doubt has lead to extreme fear among crypto investors.

2. THE BULL CASE

tl;dr: Rumors of our collective demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Interestingly enough, times of great fear have actually historically been strong buying opportunities.

finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-f…

And most commentators seem to imagine that, given an isolated conflict, things will probably go quite poorly for Russia.

• Ukraine is well-armed
• Ukraine has the complete support of the west
• Local resistance in Ukraine is likely

https://twitter.com/chad_alt/status/1495850269267144705?s=20&t=k4mxPYBht19N2vdUf6F8PQ

Putin gave a speech today that seemed to open the door for a takeover of Russia-supporting regions of Ukraine, allowing Russia to get their way without having to wage real war.

It seems like a game-theory optimal point for both the West and Russia.

And the game-theory optimal point for the West and Russia seems like it could be good for crypto, as it maintains the status quo, and the status quo recently has been good for crypto.

And who knows, maybe we see a proxy war being waged with crypto as a battleground, this time in a positive light

https://twitter.com/RyanSAdams/status/1483462474397585408?s=20&t=CgebD1GaGP0ON0CHR0ZLTA

It could lead to a storm of geopolitical powers fighting over control of crypto ($BTC?). And if this happens, HODLers are pretty well set up.

https://twitter.com/RyanDelongpre/status/1491303576828014595?s=20&t=CgebD1GaGP0ON0CHR0ZLTA

And there is even a case for Russia being economically inconsequential anyways:

https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1495556398129696770?s=20&t=CgebD1GaGP0ON0CHR0ZLTA

Legendary trader Light seems to be getting a little bullish on the back of all of today's new information:

https://twitter.com/lightcrypto/status/1495867657211375616?s=20&t=CgebD1GaGP0ON0CHR0ZLTA

WW3 or supercycle? What's it going to be?

Want to see more threads on crypto like this one? Please do me a favor:

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