Thread by @JackNiewold

I've been following $SOLID for weeks now, and the Solidly token, previously known as ve(3,3), will finally be live and tradeable in 2 days.

In advance of Andre Cronje's token finally coming to market, I'll give a final price prediction and my positioning into the launch.

🧵

Why am I so bullish on the project?

• Andre Cronje is one of my crypto's most important and experienced devs
• FTM is an undervalued ecosystem
• I think the Curve/$SOLID wars are underhyped
• vested escrow systems (veTokens) create ultra-deflationary supply

If you need to get totally caught up, on Solidly, I'd recommend this article:

avgjoescrypto.substack.com/p/ve33-an-intr…

As far as valuing the protocol, Compound Capital Partners have done twice the job I could've ever done at coming up with a reasonable valuation.

Their numbers peg $SOLID at a market cap of $72 to $86 million. or about $4 per token.

https://twitter.com/investcompound/status/1496131536693100546?s=20&t=KA9PsYHzxabJAAL8dxsd2A

My gut says that's pretty low.

They're not really including the hype that this token will launch into or the mimetics/reflexivity that are such a big part of crypto markets.

I'd be surprised if this isn't the largest protocol on $FTM, just based on Andre Cronje's reputation.

I mean, we're talking about a guy who launched a contract that gained $15 million in TVL, and no one even knew what it did yet (look up Eminence/$EMN).

So we'll split the difference between $225m (the market cap of the largest $FTM protocol) and $79m (Compound Cap's estimation)

That gives us a starting market cap of $152 million with 20 million outstanding tokens for a starting price of $7.5 per token.

A note: I talked to the guys from Compound Cap and they have views that go way beyond their analysis

Gigabrains, give them a follow

Given that info, my plan is the following:

1. $SEX / $0XDAO
2. LP position
3. $PILLS

No order to this list.

1. $SEX / $0XDAO

If we look at Solidly as another Curve Wars-style battleground, there's been one real winner: Convex.

There are two protocols competing for this Convex-style reward boosting: Solidex ($SEX) and 0xDAO ($OXD).

To me, these are some attractive plays on $SOLID.

Currently 0xDAO controls about 37% with Solidex controlling about 33.7%.

Both of those look attractive, but 0xDAO feels kind of expensive at a market cap of $63 million.

When $SEX launches, we'll see it's market cap, and I might pick some up.

But these will have limited supply early on, which will cause high demand and maybe some type of unsustainable hype-based price runup.

Look at the price action of Curve at launch: this is what we, as investors are trying to avoid.

2. LP position

So if buying into $SEX or $OXD might expose me to some type of supply crunch that leads to an unsustainable launch and subsequent big crash, LPing could be a good option.

This is the Solidly equivalent of the Curve/CVX LP strategy: provide liquidity for the pool of your choice, lock it up in either 0xDAO or Solidex for boosted rewards and tokens.

I like the USDC - MIM pool for this as it will have good rewards and no IL.

LPing is much cheaper to do on FTM than ETH.

This strategy has a couple advantages:

• Exposure to Solidly
• Boosted rewards
• Delta Neutral (no market exposure for underlying position)

3. $PILLS and other small-caps (max degen)

Owning $PILLS been a wild ride, and they're sharing tokens with Abracabra Money to incentivize/earn revenue from the Solidly USDC-MIM liquidity pool.

But they still control 536,000 tokens, making their holdings worth about $4,000,000.

$PILLS has a current mkt cap of $6.3m. It's also an exchange doing about $1.5m in volume/day.

That seems like an undervaluation. If $SOLID goes to $10 or $20, then $PILLS is a serious bargain.

I do hold some $IB, but have trimmed that position as it feels like a bit of an FDV bomb (over $1 billion FDV). As a short term play it might work out well.

Others are looking at Hundred Finance, Scream, and Tarot. I'd DYOR and try to do your math yourself on these ones.

I've got to admit, I've flopped back and forth on how to play it. Part of me wants to go full degen, part of me wants to LP stablecoins.

There are a LOT of sophisticated investors playing this game and they have a lot of takes (most are a lot smarter than me)

As always, you can help me out with a follow:
@JackNiewold

Or a RT/Fav on the first tweet, linked below:

https://twitter.com/JackNiewold/status/1496203548337528838?s=20&t=ewUhinVMz0EFDHm-KITFdw

We always save the best alpha for our email list:

cryptopragmatist.com/sign-up/

P.S. I'm about 50/50 split between $PILLS and $IB.

I could be convinced either way and I might change my mind. I think I'm probably biased based on the crazy IB runup and now I'm scared it'll dip again.