Just taking the pulse of adoption of digital assets. Google search is always interesting...
Here is Bitcoin (treading water):
Here is ETH (decently strong):
DeFi has remained steady but isn't growing in adoption (by this metric)
NFT's are the new breakaway for network adoption (but split into thousands of projects, making it hard to know where to invest):
And Web 3.0 has suddenly becomes the all-encompassing term for the digital asset space and its applications layer... this trend has just started.
The true consumer applications layer (Web 3.0 and NFT's) are getting the most new interest and is what is really going to scale to the billions but split over millions of projects and areas (music, art, community, real estate, luxury goods, metaverse, etc).
ETH seems to be capturing the L1 element of the applications layer (sort of like the social token of the applications ecosystem).
BTC as the base layer is less likely to see the rise in interest in this point in its adoption curve - more steady increases in adoption over time.
DeFi, considering the TAM of its application, is likely to see much more interest over time. We have only seen the first mini-wave. Wait until TradFi goes on blockchain for some real magic applications.
Social tokens, when they become mainstream, will likely be in the top 2 or 3
For those of you who care about macro too, I think we are getting really really close to a buy bonds, buy tech, buy crypto set up.
More to come... watching closely but likely over next 2 weeks.
Meanwhile, patience....
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Let's talk about the Crypto Waiting Room... many key part of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch. Let's look at a few (you will have yours too...)
Total3 - Ex- BTC and ETH...ready to launch from the waiting room. 1/ ...
OTHERS (Outside of Top 10... purest form of Alts season where all shit rises). Still in the waiting room but longer to launch...
Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction... 1/
We had the exact same correction in 2017 caused by the same reaction to Trump policies (higher dollar and higher rates which then reversed). 2/
Over time, we just keep climbing the log regression channel. Whether we stay at the man (red) or climb above it by another standard deviation or two remains to be seen as the cycle develops.
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:
1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks.
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro.
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time.