Raoul Pal Profile picture
Feb 21, 2022 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Just taking the pulse of adoption of digital assets. Google search is always interesting...

Here is Bitcoin (treading water):
Here is ETH (decently strong):
DeFi has remained steady but isn't growing in adoption (by this metric)
NFT's are the new breakaway for network adoption (but split into thousands of projects, making it hard to know where to invest):
And Web 3.0 has suddenly becomes the all-encompassing term for the digital asset space and its applications layer... this trend has just started.
The true consumer applications layer (Web 3.0 and NFT's) are getting the most new interest and is what is really going to scale to the billions but split over millions of projects and areas (music, art, community, real estate, luxury goods, metaverse, etc).
ETH seems to be capturing the L1 element of the applications layer (sort of like the social token of the applications ecosystem).

BTC as the base layer is less likely to see the rise in interest in this point in its adoption curve - more steady increases in adoption over time.
DeFi, considering the TAM of its application, is likely to see much more interest over time. We have only seen the first mini-wave. Wait until TradFi goes on blockchain for some real magic applications.

Social tokens, when they become mainstream, will likely be in the top 2 or 3
For those of you who care about macro too, I think we are getting really really close to a buy bonds, buy tech, buy crypto set up.

More to come... watching closely but likely over next 2 weeks.

Meanwhile, patience....

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More from @RaoulGMI

May 13
A bit of shade being thrown about the Banana Zone. Let me clarify...

Macro Summer and Fall are driven by the global liquidity cycle that exhibits clear cyclicality since 2008. Image
Why since 2008? Well, back then the worlds all reset their interest payments to zero and they debt maturity to 3 to 4 years, creating a perfect macro cycle. Image
You can see the perfect cyclicality in ISM (the best guide to the business cycle) Image
Read 19 tweets
Apr 28
Ever wondered where all my research comes from?

Well, the genesis of ALL my thinking comes from Global Macro Investor, where @BittelJulien and I do our deep thinking each month (120 pages+).

I'm immensely proud of GMI and Ive been writing it for 20 years.... 1/
It is an expensive research service and is subscribed to by many of the world's largest hedge funds (usually the principals), SWF's, Asset managers, RIA's, Family Offices and HNW investors.

It also has the best proven and recorded track record of any research service...ever.
A 20-year track record of performance is not something that any other service provides.

My track record has many 100% plus years (thank you crypto!), many decent years, some so so and some bad ones. But it is all timestamped and transparent.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 28
The Pause That Refreshes...

1. Bitcoin Image
The Pause That Refreshes...

2. ETH Image
The Pause That Refreshes...

3. SOL Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 4
The Fed arent going to cut! Its only going to be once or twice! The markets are going to freak out!

Meanwhile, in Global Macro Investor (GMI)...

1995/6 springs to mind... 1/ Image
Bond yields didnt return to their lows...(or their highs) Image
And equities went into hyperspace (even with a massive dollar rally). Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 24
What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/ Image
And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis... Image
And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall... Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 4
It can't be this easy, right?...right? Part 1 - Bitcoin +110% annual returns from doing nothing. Image
It can't be this easy, right?... right? Part 2 - Nasdaq +21% annual returns from doing nothing. Image
Maybe it really is this easy? BTC vs GMI Total Global Liquidity Index (global fiat debasement)... Image
Read 7 tweets

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