*Scalable GTM enabling predictable unit-positive customer acquisition indicating a large / expandable TAM.*
This is what Series A funds traditionally look for.
As the funding environment softens, seed founders would do well to keep the above in mind. Let us unpack this.
It is never been easier to raise a pre-seed / seed as in the last two years. It is also never ever been harder to raise a Series A. As Seed has gotten easier, Series A is now the chokepoint.
Elite Series A funds have been doing preseed / seed rounds; so they are blessed with choice when it comes to Series A - in addition to those invested by other funds, they also have their own to take care of. Hence only the best performing seed stage startups will get a look in.
Seed founders - make sure you get to PMF, or are closing in on it - when you start Series A fundraising. 'Historically' Series A is linked to PMF / product-market fit.
PMF is when you have predictable, repeatable, unit-positive growth.
PMF is the destination, & getting to PMF is to work towards a *scalable GTM, enabling predictable & unit positive customer acquisition* & Given funding, ideally one hinting at a large market opportunity / TAM.
Scalable GTM = you have a clear playbook to identify, reach & engage customers. The playbook can be rinse-repeated across diff micromarkets, or can be expanded by adding more people. Linear relationship between investment & customer outreach.
Predictable customer acquisition = broad formulas hold for number of customers engaged and how many convert. Also for the time taken for them to onboard. There is a predictability / repeatability around the customer acquisition playbook.
Unit-positive = The accounts / customers / orders are CM2 positive covering variable costs, i.e, the revenue covers the cost of goods sold/servicing and customer acquisition. If revenue expands, it will cover fixed costs at some large enough point.
Large TAM = The problem / market opportunity you are after is large, or expandable. If the market doesn't seem large, indicate future hooks (marketplace, financing, global markets) that can be layered on. Present this as the 1st phase of a land + expand / tip of spear strategy.
So there you go, seed stage founders, from the time you raise funding, work towards a
Scalable GTM
enabling Predictable Customer Acquisition
which is Unit-Positive
hinting at a Large or Expandable TAM.
PMF = first three elements essentially. The nailing before you begin scaling.
If I need to summarize the above in as pithy a manner as possible, I would say *Build a Scalable GTM (go to market) Engine* A customer reachout, engagement & acquisition machine that can be dialed up or down basis funds. Build this, hint at a large TAM, & the inbounds will begin.
Founders - we are beginning to see a gentle softening all around. Conversations that take would take 2 weeks are taking 3 weeks, DDs are getting a little more rigorous. It is the stage of the party where the music is playing, but the lights are on:)
As the funding froth settles a bit, it is time to get back to fundamentals.
Seed founders: Build a scalable GTM engine!
👋
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This is a v good essay by @athomasq on 'Minsky Moments' = when capital inflows lead to reduction in perceived risk (true risk remains). He posits a Minsky Moment in venture similar to the one that impacted the credit markets in '08-09.
This is a clever piece of writing by @athomasq - the observation on time acceleration in VC is brilliant.
I am skeptical though if there will be a severe venture winter (ofc my job requires me to disbelieve in it!) because of how true & perceived risk interplay in venture.
One factor @athomasq doesn't consider is reflexivity in venture.
Valuation -> value in venture. Money going in leads to a reset of perception, attracting talent, sucking money away fm competition, leading to true value.
Perceived low risk -> true lower risk, strangely, in VC.
Fascinated by 'secular' or atheistic 'religions' - Ethical Culture is an old one, New Stoicism is a new one. Suppose they could be seen as life philosophies.
Thinking about this equation.
Religion = Faith + Rituals + Identity + Community + Precepts
Both Ethical Culture, Stoicism dial down / remove the Faith part while preserving the other 4.
Religion has several jobs to be done incl mindfulness (prayer helps here), belonging etc.
They show you can have a practice that has best of what religion offers w/o the God part.
Here is a piece about Ethical Culture, which I learnt about from the rabbit hole i went down yday. Also see the wiki. religionnews.com/2014/10/01/ori…
Start w this useful framework (via Niraj Shah of Wayfair fm podcast on @joincolossus)
Amazon cracked #1 through marketplace. Has become the native model.
#2 solved via dark stores (Rappi etc). This is now 'native' model globally.
Huge excitment around QCommerce / 10min delivery - GoPuff, Rappi, Gorillas, Jokr, Dunzo, Zepto etc - because the model of dark stores / limited SKUs / defined 2x2 sq km area etc has been cracked. PMF is now much easier with this model.
Grocery's native model is QCommerce.
#3 is Shein / Livestreaming. Shein's LATR model for instance where they rinse & repeat at scale is perhaps a great model to overcome inventory challenges that plague fashion.
Went to binge watch Tokyo Girl for the 3rd/4th time last night, & found it is off roster. Sigh.
Somehow, this portrait of a Japanese sarariwoman through her 20s & 30s, successes & failures making her way through Tokyo, became my fave watch of '21. 🧵
Each episode ~22mins or so long, is named for a specific Tokyo locality which Aya, the heroine, stays in as she rises in her career - starting fm Sangenjaya (AndheriW or Malviyanagar of Tokyo) to Ebisu (Bandra / GK1) to Yoyogi Uehara (Sobo/DefCol).
Interesting post by @mariogabriele on 'DeCos' or decentralized countries. We are beginning to see provocative thinking on the future of nation states (@balajis has done a lot of thinking on this - network states v nation states) & this is certainly one.
I do concur that the nation state's gravitational power is decreasing; my specific area of interest is not virtual but new physical nation states emerging (more challenging + less realistic though) & the actions needed to support the emergence of these new physical nation states.