1/ Going after Putin’s inner circle and Oligarchs is an important step and one that many argue should have happened years ago. That having been said, Putin -to use Trump’s 🤷🏻♀️ description- is savvy enough to know he can’t be seen as beholden to anyone…
2/ This is why you saw that cringeworthy dressing down of one of his security chiefs Monday (which was prerecorded and could have easily been edited out). It wasn’t for a reason. He’s done the same in the past with Oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska (demanding he return a pen)….
3/ As @katyakotrikadze notes, this is intentional. For the country and world to see them shaking in fear. In addition, the staged process we’ve seen this week of Putin following the “democratic path”, of going before a Duma where his only real opposition is the Communist party.
4/ And on this, they support Putin’s efforts re Ukraine. A public display of support by a Parliament fully under Putin’s thumb is meant to show Russians that he’s acting in accordance with the “democratic process”. But it’s intended for something else.
5/ As much as Putin rules as a Czar, he realizes it can be vulnerability. So what does he do? He presents to the Russian public a united front. And behind the scenes, a message: “you own this too.”
6/ This includes Oligarchs too, who I can’t imagine Putin feel sympathy for if they are denied access to their homes in London or Miami. And as for his siloviki, as @AlexGabuev writes, they personally stand to benefit from sanctions.
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.@SecBlinken to @tvrain: "A problem for any system that, like Russia, unfortunately turns into an autocracy (is that) few people tell the truth to those in power. I'm worried that President Putin doesn't necessarily get facts and truthful information." 1/ tvrain.ru/teleshow/veche…
..."If he believes that in Ukraine the Russian military will be welcomed with open arms, then I'm afraid he is deeply mistaken." 2/
.@katyakotrikadze: "You just touched on the issue of information that Putin receives. There are concerns and doubts in Russia about the information you get from your intelligence. What is the level of reliability of these sources?" 3/
1/Facing 15 ADDITIONAL years in prison on trumped up charges, @navalny is as determined as ever:
"I’m telling you now, employees of the Anti-Corruption Fight Fund, continue to publish facts. Find where Putin, his circle, relatives, put the stolen money.. tvrain.ru/teleshow/video…
2/...investigate all these United Russia ministers, publish, urge everyone else to distribute...I am fighting, yes, for to change the government in the country. I do not want these people to sit in the Kremlin, they have been sitting there for decades...
3/... I believe that they are thieves, I ask you to make donations to us so that we can investigate the activities of these thieves. And at each new court session, I will even tell with pleasure, let's call it a campaign of court donations...
Some thoughts on what's likely to come next in Russia after Navalny is thankfully getting SOME treatment:
Yes, he has been finally given access to (likely ill-equipped) civilian doctors, leading to the end of his hunger strike.
BUT, here are the realities that lie ahead.. (1/10)
Expect suppression of Navalny's colleagues and supporters at its highest level yet. In labeling them "extremists", officials have legal authority to treat them as terrorists. Early previews include colleagues who have been beaten, jailed for NO reason, and threatened. (2/10)
Expect further suppression of independent media (who have done incredible investigative work). Just today, authorities designated @meduzaproject as a "foreign agent", which makes it that much harder for their work to continue. (3/10)
I’ve come across several explanations for Biden not mentioning @navalny (in either the read out of his call to Putin, or Thursday’s statement). They suggest it was done to avoid further enraging Putin and thus increasing the risk to Navalny’s life...(1/6)
Or perhaps a behind the scenes deal is being negotiated for a prisoner exchange. Here’s why I think both arguments are wrong:
1) Putin can’t be placated once he views someone as an existential threat/enemy (which is how he views Navalny). (2/6)
2) Just yesterday, The Kremlin deemed Navalny and his team “extremists”, putting all of their supporters in legal jeopardy.
3) Navalny will never leave Russia in a prisoner exchange. He voluntarily returned to Russia after being poisoned, knowing he would likely be jailed. (3/6)
@navalny's team responds to Russian prosecutors seeking to declare them extremists:
"The darkest time is coming for free-thinking people, for civil society in Russia. Kremlin has just demanded that anyone who disagrees with it be recognized as extremists... (1/4)
I disagree with palaces and rising prices, raising the retirement age and corruption. Those who are ready to protest against this will now be declared extremists. It is clear that the Kremlin's new attack is linked to the upcoming rally and the elections in September. (2/4)
So it is clear what the answer should be: hold a rally (perhaps this is generally the last rally in the next few years), and win elections (perhaps this is generally the last elections for many years to come). (3/4)
While today's IC report on Russia's effort to influence the 2020 election in Trump's favor is not surprising, a few things worth noting:
- Putin continues to rely on US social media companies to undermine US confidence in elections and "increase sociopolitical divisions"...(1/5)
At the same time, the Kremlin is threatening to censor or even ban the same social media companies from inside Russia out of fear of @navalny and other Kremlin opponents gaining support from younger Russians disenfranchised with Putin (ahead of Sept. Duma elections). (2/5)
- The report calculates that Moscow will continue its election interference campaign because "the Kremlin has long deemed that a weakened US would be less likely to pursue assertive foreign and security policies abroad and more open to geopolitical bargains with Russia"...(3/5)