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Nikolai Yakovenko Profile picture
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Feb 23 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
@Sothebys Punk sale tonight, starting an about about an hour.

I've written about this over the past couple weeks. 👇🧵
Background on the sale, how we got here, and what to expect.

At the time our model valued collection at 74.2 ETH per Punk. Fair value -- not what someone would pay -- more in a sec.

Since then the model has lowered the collection to 73.6 ETH per Punk, while ETH slipped to $2.6K

73.6 * 104 * $2.6K = $19.9M

deepnftvalue.com/punks/attribut…
$20M would be fair value, except
* need to add in @Sothebys fees, taxes (!)
* discount for buying the bundle
* you're taking market risk
* only need to bid enough to out-bid #2 buyer...
Friends at @UpshotHQ set up a betting market on the gavel price (pre fees, pre tax). Over-under was set to $25M and it's 8-1 on the "under."

Better action at $20M or frankly $15M might be high. I'd think smart money on the under in any market.

Notable also that you could week the current Punks floor instead for ~76 ETH per Punk. Arguably... you'd get better Punks too. Though you'd move the market mid-stream, I know.

I'd add that our 73 ETH/Punk model estimate is a bit high. Market has been dropping. Floor is 65 and there's 30 Punks at 75 ETH or below -- some of them nice ones.

deepnftvalue.com/for-sale?attri…
I don't see how, non-monetary, big whale, greater fool theories aside, this collection should be worth more than 60-65 ETH at *most*. Then, there's fees...

I should know better but I think it's 18% auction fee + taxes (depends where you live maybe). That's a lot.
Say 60 ETH * 104 * $2.6K * 0.80 (fees) = $13M gavel price. And that's for someone paying little/no taxes, who is willing to pay 60/Punk for mostly floor Punks, when you can pick and choose on LL starting at 65 ETH.
You can see why I think the interesting prediction market would be $15M. I bet in that market everyone would take the over. I'd take the under -- as a very live dog.

Caveat -- I am looking strictly at value of the individual pieces, and what you can sell them for in the market
Someone could easily decide to bid $15M+ for other reasons. And if they did, and held for a while... probably wouldn't lose much money on the deal, if any.
At the end of the day, value is subjective. 🤷‍♂️
And yeah -- hours after posting this -- the auction was cancelled. There was no buyer willing to meet the seller's desired minimum price, it's safe to say.

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More from @ivan_bezdomny

Nikolai Yakovenko Profile picture
Feb 26
Long walk/run earlier this evening. Gotta keep your sanity folks.

Beautiful evening. Some kind of big concert event by 15th street on the beach. Perfect weather 🏝 ImageImageImage
Listened to @benthompson interview with Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger.

Prescient, especially in regard to Taiwan and future of chip fabs in the US. Intel or otherwise. Recorded a week ago.
Gelsinger opens with why it wasn’t a good idea to split Intel into separate manufacture and design companies.

Points out it took AMD a decade to recover from the split. And Global Foundries didn’t make it out as a producer of top of the line nodes.
Read 4 tweets
Nikolai Yakovenko Profile picture
Feb 26
I tend to keep these thing private. Spoke to mom about Ukraine. Grandparents in Crimea (left Donbas years ago thankfully). She's worried will be hard to send them money, pay for nursing home, if Russia cut off from US banking system. My cousin also over there taking care of them.
Not telling anyone what to think, but there are real effects on normal people from "remove them from SWIFT already" reactions.

Nobody is more anti-Putin than my parents for what it's worth. Loyal Democrats too. Just saying.
Not sure I'd describe them as Ukrainian nationalists. But they opposed Crimean annexation -- which most of the population there supported I believe supported.
Read 4 tweets
Nikolai Yakovenko Profile picture
Feb 24
This matters, because we're going to see sentiment "to act," to "do something" stirred up not just by the mainstream media, but also by Twitter intellectuals, many of whom became Ukraine experts on Wikipedia this Tuesday. Hits different than the Covid stuff.
Just because the mainstream media is sure to wrongly report what happens, it doesn't mean the alternative media or the newly minted Ukraine experts on twitter are worth listening to either.
What is worth following if you really want to know what's going on? I would suggest there's some good primary sources. Lots of people in Ukraine posting videos, car dashcams, etc. I wasn't sure what was real at first but seeing channels with hundreds of such videos.
Read 6 tweets
Nikolai Yakovenko Profile picture
Jan 27
The birds show up, demanding tribute 🥜🌻 Image
After they get past their initial hunger, eating slows down and they take turns keeping a watch.

Third 🕊 comes by and gets chased round the block.

Been seeing green parrots circling too.
New development with the birds -- they no longer prefer cashews. Will still eat, but see them clean out the sunflower seeds first now. Very different a week ago.

Two possibilities
* cashews staler, of less interest
* since giving them the walnuts, cashews become champale
Read 4 tweets
Nikolai Yakovenko Profile picture
Jan 26
This will offend many of you, and of course there are notable exceptions -- some of whom I know. But more and more, I think that young people should not aim to work as professional investors. Especially with other peoples' money.
In HF space, we do hire young people -- but to work as analysis. Years and years of that before you make investment decisions. Even though analysts' idea are often very good.
The vast majority of you should work as an operatoooor for a while, or as a lowly IC. Put a few shekels into the market. Experience a few market cycles. Track your ideas if you don't invest, and see how those would have worked out. What were you certain of that turned out wrong?
Read 15 tweets
Nikolai Yakovenko Profile picture
Jan 25
Punks absolutely flying! 70+ sales in the past 24 hours and not slowing down.
* floor to 74Ξ, Male floor 80Ξ
* clean punks going ~100Ξ
* floor for some atty like "luxurious beard" 100Ξ+ as many de-list 🧔
* Hoodies, other 200Ξ+ premiums not moving (yet)

deepnftvalue.com/for-sale?attri…
Our model slow catching up with rising prices. You can see the floor jump in many attributes.

Working on a shorter update cycle. Very do-able just more code...

staging.deepnftvalue.com/punks/attribut…
Big jump up here.

+7 ETH overnite feels about right.

Much churn as floor swept, and market maker realizing their +10% quick profit.

Read 8 tweets

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