A guide to surviving and making money in this bear market.
Note: the thread is not about hopium or soft advice. I'm just not good at these. I share what I did since Jan (worked pretty well) and what I will do.
18/18 Thread πππ
Note: the thread is not about hopium or soft advice. I'm just not good at these. I share what I did since Jan (worked pretty well) and what I will do.
18/18 Thread πππ
1/ Bad news
We are in bear, admit it, and we are likely gonna be here for a while. Looking at the charts, news, and sentiments, none gives us the confidence that we are going to break out higher soon. There might be some breaking good news, but that probability is low.
We are in bear, admit it, and we are likely gonna be here for a while. Looking at the charts, news, and sentiments, none gives us the confidence that we are going to break out higher soon. There might be some breaking good news, but that probability is low.
2/ Good news
The two major drivers at this stage are the rate hike and the war.
So, what happened in history with these two events?
Check out the charts: they did suck, but they were temporary, the market ALWAYS recovered, and the impact, on average, was neutral.
The two major drivers at this stage are the rate hike and the war.
So, what happened in history with these two events?
Check out the charts: they did suck, but they were temporary, the market ALWAYS recovered, and the impact, on average, was neutral.
3/ Why non-crypto data?
They are all correlated. In particular, if one thing is breaking #NASDAQ, that thing will break crypto too.
The same correlation applies to alts and small caps. If the overall market is not looking good, your favorite projects could go even worse.
They are all correlated. In particular, if one thing is breaking #NASDAQ, that thing will break crypto too.
The same correlation applies to alts and small caps. If the overall market is not looking good, your favorite projects could go even worse.
4/ How to survive?
You should always have a balanced portfolio, never all cryptos, never all stables. Right now, > 80% stables did me well. This gives me enough bullets to seize the opportunities.
Remember, there are more opportunities to make generational wealth in bears.
You should always have a balanced portfolio, never all cryptos, never all stables. Right now, > 80% stables did me well. This gives me enough bullets to seize the opportunities.
Remember, there are more opportunities to make generational wealth in bears.
5/ What about hodling?
I believe crypto has a bright future, so imo this is OK, and you better hodling the solid projects. If you prefer this way, delete all your crypto apps, and turn off Twitters/Discord notifications.
You gotta be patient and cut your itchy fingers too.
I believe crypto has a bright future, so imo this is OK, and you better hodling the solid projects. If you prefer this way, delete all your crypto apps, and turn off Twitters/Discord notifications.
You gotta be patient and cut your itchy fingers too.
6/ I donβt hodl
Iβm less patient and I trade both ways.
Another reason: I used to be in a whale TG. I saw how they leveraged this βhodlβ mindset in us, probably for years, dumping on us, shorting against us, faking vibes and patterns to fool us, etc.
So to me, hodling is risky.
Iβm less patient and I trade both ways.
Another reason: I used to be in a whale TG. I saw how they leveraged this βhodlβ mindset in us, probably for years, dumping on us, shorting against us, faking vibes and patterns to fool us, etc.
So to me, hodling is risky.
7/ Prediction?
- The general trend is down, unless we have some super bullish news OR everything is absorbed, we are heading down.
- There will be short-term pumps and green candle days, this is for sure.
- Longer-term, crypto go high
- The general trend is down, unless we have some super bullish news OR everything is absorbed, we are heading down.
- There will be short-term pumps and green candle days, this is for sure.
- Longer-term, crypto go high
8/ How to survive and make money then?
Based on the predictions, below are the strategies Iβve been using since the start of the year.
Not going to mention again how to survive (basically you just need to have stables or hodl the right ones)
Strategies from low risk to high:
Based on the predictions, below are the strategies Iβve been using since the start of the year.
Not going to mention again how to survive (basically you just need to have stables or hodl the right ones)
Strategies from low risk to high:
9/ Yield farming with stables
Send your cash to work, similar to depositing money into banks. The difference is you earn >10% easily.
Low-risk protocols I recommend:
- @iearnfinance
- @beefyfinance
- @anchor_protocol
My favorite: @WhiteWhaleTerra (anchor + arb bots), so good!
Send your cash to work, similar to depositing money into banks. The difference is you earn >10% easily.
Low-risk protocols I recommend:
- @iearnfinance
- @beefyfinance
- @anchor_protocol
My favorite: @WhiteWhaleTerra (anchor + arb bots), so good!
10/ Learn from the best
Not sure what to do? CTs I highly recommend you follow:
- Best DeFi farmer and trader: @hufhaus9
- Best DeFi educators: @phtevenstrong @Route2FI
- Best TA coach: @CrashiusClay69
- Best NFT alpha: @OttoSuwenNFT
- Best student of above: @melbourne_dao :)
Not sure what to do? CTs I highly recommend you follow:
- Best DeFi farmer and trader: @hufhaus9
- Best DeFi educators: @phtevenstrong @Route2FI
- Best TA coach: @CrashiusClay69
- Best NFT alpha: @OttoSuwenNFT
- Best student of above: @melbourne_dao :)
11/ Sell or short on small pumps
How to identify these fake pumps?
- They appear right after the drastic dumps, always.
- Much weaker volumes
- Pumping hard for no reason
- TA
The last one is great but hard to master, lucky the first 3 have been working well.
So how to short?
How to identify these fake pumps?
- They appear right after the drastic dumps, always.
- Much weaker volumes
- Pumping hard for no reason
- TA
The last one is great but hard to master, lucky the first 3 have been working well.
So how to short?
12/ Shorting with perpetual
Part of my funds is on CEXs.
You donβt need to hold the token before selling it. If you are experienced, leverage is fantastic. For new players, try to avoid it.
Platforms:
- @Bybit_Official
- @kucoincom
Find out more: learn.bybit.com/trading/what-aβ¦
Part of my funds is on CEXs.
You donβt need to hold the token before selling it. If you are experienced, leverage is fantastic. For new players, try to avoid it.
Platforms:
- @Bybit_Official
- @kucoincom
Find out more: learn.bybit.com/trading/what-aβ¦
13.1/ Borrow non-stables by lending stables
If your funds are on MM, you can short on lending protocols. The trick is to sell high and buy low.
1. Deposit stables
2. Borrow non-stables
3. Sell them immediately for stables
4. Buyback when the price dropped
5. Repay the loan
If your funds are on MM, you can short on lending protocols. The trick is to sell high and buy low.
1. Deposit stables
2. Borrow non-stables
3. Sell them immediately for stables
4. Buyback when the price dropped
5. Repay the loan
13.2/ Borrow non-stables by lending stables
The risk is you may get liquidated if the non-stable you borrowed increases in value by too much.
I like to borrow farming tokens because they have higher selling pressure.
@AaveAave and @tranquil_fi are my go-to lending platforms.
The risk is you may get liquidated if the non-stable you borrowed increases in value by too much.
I like to borrow farming tokens because they have higher selling pressure.
@AaveAave and @tranquil_fi are my go-to lending platforms.
14/ Borrow non-stables by lending non-stables
1. Deposit non-stables
2. Borrow the same non-stable
3. Sell them immediately for stables
4. Buy them back when the price dropped, and repay the loan
No liq. risk + balanced strategy
@AaveAave and @tranquil_fi are my go-tos.
1. Deposit non-stables
2. Borrow the same non-stable
3. Sell them immediately for stables
4. Buy them back when the price dropped, and repay the loan
No liq. risk + balanced strategy
@AaveAave and @tranquil_fi are my go-tos.
15/ Advanced
- You can borrow non-stables and farm them to earn yields (don't recommend, too risky rn)
- Delta neutral: open two positions, long and short, and farm the tokens (too much effort)
- Trade options: @lyrafinance @dopex_io @DAOJonesOptions (IKIYK)
- You can borrow non-stables and farm them to earn yields (don't recommend, too risky rn)
- Delta neutral: open two positions, long and short, and farm the tokens (too much effort)
- Trade options: @lyrafinance @dopex_io @DAOJonesOptions (IKIYK)
16/ Degens
- DCA: simple, but depending on the underlying asset. Imo, it is mostly driven by the belief that you think the price will go higher, but the belief could be blind.
- Blue-chip NFTs: in the past, it worked quite well, but this time seems not, I'll keep speculating.
- DCA: simple, but depending on the underlying asset. Imo, it is mostly driven by the belief that you think the price will go higher, but the belief could be blind.
- Blue-chip NFTs: in the past, it worked quite well, but this time seems not, I'll keep speculating.
17/ Buy the solid small caps when the market stabilizes
It's always the case. When the market stabilizes, the solid small caps fly, passive income protocols (PIP) fly even higher, and the new PIP launches explode.
My favorite risky play, fun, and rewarding.
It's always the case. When the market stabilizes, the solid small caps fly, passive income protocols (PIP) fly even higher, and the new PIP launches explode.
My favorite risky play, fun, and rewarding.
18/ Disclaimer
This thread is more about how and what based on my exps, not when and where.
So when and where?
- 1st: learn to DYOR
- 2nd: follow the great minds, and get some inspirations:
@hufhaus9 @phtevenstrong @CrashiusClay69 @Route2FI @OttoSuwenNFT
- 3rd: stay tuned
This thread is more about how and what based on my exps, not when and where.
So when and where?
- 1st: learn to DYOR
- 2nd: follow the great minds, and get some inspirations:
@hufhaus9 @phtevenstrong @CrashiusClay69 @Route2FI @OttoSuwenNFT
- 3rd: stay tuned
β’ β’ β’
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