How does this morning’s news affect the global order, rule of law and the future of democracies? A thread…
We need to wake up: Putin wants to recreate the USSR & is ready to face us down as he thinks we won’t risk WW3. The most successful international order in the history of humanity - which has allowed millions to live in freedom & lifted millions out of poverty - is under threat.
This means a long term strategy as well as a tactical response. The Cold War lasted 43 years at the end of which democracy prevailed without a shot being fired. How do we make that happen a second time but more quickly?
Firstly economic sanctions are fine but Putin has already predicted and discounted them. What we do needs to be big enough to prevent the Russian state funding the Russian military.
That means stopping buying $330m of gas every day from Russia (as the West did even without Nordstream 2) and shutting out Russian money from London. But given that Russia has $600 bn of reserves it will take many years to achieve. We need to be in this for the long term.
Secondly an effective military response is crucial. Direct combat between NATO and Russian troops is very risky and would be the first time there has been a military conflict between two UN security council nuclear powers.
But that does not mean we cannot offer military support to the Ukrainians to make this invasion as difficult as possible. Ukraine needs to be a millstone round Putin’s neck not a triumphant step towards the restoration of the USSR.
Thirdly and more challengingly Europe surely now needs to match the 3.5% of GDP that the US spends on defence. The UK’s integrated review was a step in the right direction but is now out of date. Surely the UK cannot be cutting the army at a time like this?
If there is to be a global alliance of democracies to defend the rule of law, European countries need to show their willingness to step up in our own back yard.
Finally we cannot look at Russia and China separately. Both are deeply committed to upending the US/UK designed post-45 order. China will look at what happens in Ukraine carefully to gauge what the Western response would be to an invasion of Taiwan.
But even on a grim day like today we should not lose hope. Authoritarian leaders always underestimate the resolve of democracies. We can be slow to get going but an alliance of countries with a shared belief in freedom will always have an unshakeable resolve.
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