Brandon Katz Profile picture
Feb 24, 2022 14 tweets 7 min read Read on X
🧵Warner Bros. Discovery Thread 🧵
The combined entity of Warner Bros. and Discovery is expected to spend $22B on content in 2022, per Wells Fargo/@xscreenmedia. WBD is projected to generate $52B in revenue in 2023 & carry an estimated enterprise value of $150 billion, per @FinancialTimes.
Per Discovery’s earnings reports, 67% of its $2.79B in 2020 revenue came from domestic networks. Even as a decaying model, it enables WBD to mine some value from linear business, which still stands at ~70M customers in the U.S. (with ~6M cutting the cord per year).
The unification brings together entertainment brands such as CNN, TBS, TNT, HGTV, Food Network, Discovery Channel, Warner Bros. movie studio, and streaming services HBO Max (74M subs) and Discovery+ (22M subs).
The combination of WarnerMedia and Discovery Inc. would have assumed the third largest share of total streaming subscriptions as of mid-2021, according to transactional data firm @AntennaData.
In terms of new demand, measured by gross subscriber adds, a combined Discovery+ and HBO Max would own 28% share in the first half of 2021, per @AntennaData.
But how will the combined content fare together, particularly in streaming?

WBD is projected to start out in second place in US corporate demand share (behind Disney), per @ParrotAnalytics, which bodes well as they work to bring their full catalog onto in-house SVOD platforms.
Discovery+ (6.6%) was the 7th largest streaming platform by demand share in the US in Q4 2021. HBO Max (10.9%) was the 3rd biggest platform the US last quarter. Merging the two services creates a top 3 streamer behind Hulu and Netflix in demand share.
Reality/Documentary comprises just 4% of #HBOMax's audience demand & 70% of Discovery+'s, per @ParrotAnalytics. ~60% of Discovery’s catalog released over the last 3-to-5 years is lifestyle/reality whereas these genres make up just 3% of the WarnerMedia catalog, per @Diesel_Labs.
Together, WarnerMedia and Discovery own 26% of all new titles (across shows and movies) in 2021—overtaking the previous leader Netflix who owns 24% of all new titles, per @Diesel_Labs. Discovery is strong with volume, but generates little social engagement, an area WM excels.
But the WarnerMedia/Discovery audiences only overlap modestly with 3.9% of people engaging with content from both companies. In other words, there's a small audience that demands both. This is a potential roadblock to a Disney-like bundle of two services (Max and Discovery+).
It’s unclear if there’s a significant enough audience who would be interested in having access to both catalogs in a bundle, especially if it is more expensive than HBO Max ($9.99 ad supported, $14.99 ad free) today. Then again, pricing narratives change quickly (see: Netflix).
Both bundling HBO Max and Discovery+ as separate entities and integrating them into one supersized service come with pros/cons. I lean towards the latter, especially w/ the widespread belief Hulu will eventually be folded into D+ in the US and Star is already under D+ overseas.
Messed up the HBO Max reality/docmentary number a bit. But my point was that it is a smaller % of their overall content catalog, and an area that Discovery+ is excels in.

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More from @Great_Katzby

Mar 4, 2022
Disney+ will expand its offerings for consumers by introducing an ad-supported subscription in addition to its option without ads, beginning in the U.S. in late 2022, with plans to expand internationally in 2023.
The ad-supported offering is viewed as a building block in the Company’s path to achieving its long-term target of 230-260 million Disney+ subscribers by FY24.

As a reminder, Hulu generates ~75% of its revenue from its AVOD tier.
Quote from Kareem Daniel, Chairman, Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution:
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3, 2022
#TheBatman is a long hard boiled noir rather than smart popcorn action thriller. Opinion may depend on what you want a Batman movie to be. Loved the character psychology, textured world building, supporting performances, & Giacchino’s score. Still digesting other elements. 8.7/10
I need to do a rewatch, but my way too rapid solo Bat flick ranking for now:

1. TDK
2. Batman Begins
3. #TheBatman
4. Batman Returns
5. Batman 89
6. Mask of Phantasm
7. TDKR
8. The Lego Batman
9. Batman Forever
10. Batman & Robin
Honestly wild that The Lego Batman, a movie I love, is so low. But speaks to the franchise's overall impressive hit rate.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 1, 2022
🧵 US vs Global Streaming Viewership Thread (As Told Through #AllOfUsAreDead ratings) 🧵
How much value should we be attaching to US vs global when it comes to streaming viewership? The US is the biggest streaming market, but has reached a relative subscriber saturation point & a rough ceiling of ~80M subs overall (see: Netflix). Overseas has more growth potential.
So should streamers be servicing their biggest regional audience (U.S.) or their relative untapped markets (international territories)? Is there a way to do both?
Read 6 tweets
Feb 7, 2022
🧵Quick Streaming Thread 🧵
Audience engagement—or the viewer conversation and attention surrounding a given title—is NOT a reflection of viewership. But it does help to measure viewer consistency/loyalty and, importantly, title awareness, which can help attract new subscribers. Chatter is free marketing!
According to @Diesel_Labs, which measures audience attention/engagement, these are the top 2021 streaming originals based on engagement and the top '21 streaming break outs (titles that saw dramatic increase in engagement after limited pre-release conversation/hype). ImageImage
Read 12 tweets
Mar 23, 2021
WB, Paramount, & Universal have now all agreed to long-term window-shortening deals w/ exhibitors. Disney is experimenting w/ hybrid Disney+ releases. Sony CEO has suggested they will take advantage of shorter windows.

We're going to need to readjust our box office benchmarks.
Most films make the majority of its money in its first four weeks (Endgame earned 91% of its entire domestic gross in its first month). But shorter runs further emphasize opening weekends for tentpole films. Something like a John Wick may struggle to breakout in this new world.
And prestige fare like Parasite's long, slow burn box office tail will be another question entirely in this new shortened theatrical reality.
Read 4 tweets
May 13, 2019
#GameofThrones has always been about power. What it means and how it's used. But, in the end, the true power lay with the showrunners who, no matter how indefensible or nonsensical, were always hurtling toward this moment.
The worst abuse of power in #GameofThrones was in the writing - The unwillingness or inability to deviate from a flawed plan. The unfaltering determination to arrive at a set conclusion. GoT is meant to be about the consequences of our choices. We just witnessed it.
Whether or not this is GRRM's intended conclusion, the show failed to craft a convincing argument for its deployment. Dany fought to save mankind from the apocalypse only to destroy her own humanity against a lesser threat? I'm sorry, it just doesn't track.
Read 16 tweets

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