Covid cases and hospitalizations have continued to plummet in the US. No one knows for sure what comes next, but at this stage of the pandemic, it's helpful to think about what's certain, likely and uncertain. 1/4
Certain: We're better able to handle Covid than at any other point in the pandemic, thanks to more immunity, more vaccines, more tests, more treatments, a better understanding of masking, and more surveillance, including genomic surveillance. 2/4
Likely: Covid won't dominate our lives in 2022 because of all the tools we now have to reduce its impact. By vaccinating and adapting to different risk levels if cases increase (individual and community), we can resume many activities while keeping people safe. 3/4
Uncertain: Will new dangerous variants emerge that cause more severe illness or further escape our immunity? Will we seize this moment to invest in health systems and strengthen our ability to detect, respond to, and prevent future health threats in this country and globally? 4/4
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Although deadly new Covid variants could emerge, I'm more optimistic today than at any point since the pandemic began. Here’s why. 1/thread
Despite pandemic fatigue and rough weeks ahead as Omicron crests, we're better defended against Covid than ever. Vaccines and prior infection steadily strengthened our immune defenses. We now have a wall of immunity, though we have lost far, far too many people to get here. 2/
In 2020, failure to follow public health recommendations greatly increased the death toll in the US and elsewhere. In 2021, failure to reach people with vaccination—resistance and partisan opposition in the US and lack of access in many countries—had lethal consequences. 3/
About 60 million people in the US over age 5 haven't yet been vaccinated against Covid. Here's a breakdown of who they are based on the latest CDC data, and who I'm most worried about. 1/thread
One-third of unvaccinated people are kids ages 5-11 who recently became eligible. Another third are young adults (ages 18-39) who are less likely overall to seek health care. These groups could benefit from vaccine protection but aren't at high risk of dying from Covid. 2/
Nor are teens, ages 12-17. They also recently became eligible for vaccination, and two-thirds of them are vaccinated—but around 8 million are not. 3/
Omicron is causing a TSUNAMI, not a wave, of infections in the US. No one knows what will come next with Covid, but we can make a big difference now by taking simple actions to shield the vulnerable & protect health care. Here's where we are—and where we might be headed. 1/thread
We’ve learned a lot about Omicron in the past two months. It’s stunningly transmissible and has left Delta in the dust. Omicron is far less likely than Delta to cause severe disease, especially in people who are vaccinated and boosted. 2/
We’ll know more in a few more weeks, but it appears that the current spike in Covid cases driven by Omicron may subside nearly as quickly as it rose, as happened in South Africa. 3/
Some have criticized CDC’s guidance on isolation for people who test positive for Covid. I believe it’s basically correct, though they could roll it out better. 1/thread
Last night I explained what the new guidance means for you if you get Covid. Now I’m going to tackle why the guidance makes sense from a public health perspective. 2/
Isolation prevents people with Covid from spreading the infection, but it has negative effects, not only on the physical and mental health of the person isolated, but also on their family and their community's ability to continue important activities. 3/
No one wants to spread an infection to someone who could get seriously ill or die from it. If you test positive for Covid or have symptoms, it’s important to stay home and isolate. I’ll try to clarify CDC’s guidance on what you should do if you get Covid. 1/thread
The reality is that Omicron is out of control in the US. Because of this, critical services are at risk of disruption, including our health system, schools, and transportation. We MUST save both lives and livelihoods. 2/
Based on what we know right now, Omicron is much more infectious than other variants and shortens the time between exposure and symptomatic illness. People are most infectious just before they develop symptoms and a day or two after. 3/
What will happen with Covid in 2022?? There’s SO much we don’t know about Omicron and the future of Covid. I outline 12 questions and reveal how we can avoid Covid dominating our lives in 2022. Here we go… 1/thread
Question 1: How much severe illness will Omicron cause in different risk groups? People who were previously infected, those with or without vaccination, and people who have gotten boosted, by age group. Looks less severe, but only time will tell. Let’s dive into severity. 2/
15 months ago we compared Covid-19/flu. Best estimate Covid 5x deadlier than flu, now clear about 10x. (Flu, frankly, doesn’t get the respect it deserves for hospitalizing hundreds of thousands and killing tens of thousands in the US every year.) bit.ly/3FtTN7V 3/