Michael Duitsman Profile picture
Feb 25, 2022 30 tweets 11 min read Read on X
The Russian encampment is at 46.7627° N, 33.3847° E. The column of vehicles was headed southeast (away from the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam) on the R-47.

#OSINTatMIIS #Ukraine
Another vehicle, this time alone. Moving rather fast (for a truck) with its emergency flashers on.
They've started turning back some - but not all - vehicles. Also, there is something very much on fire in the far distance on the left.
Russian military vehicles headed towards the dam.
And more headed away from it.
Another lone vehicle. Also ma'dudes standing there, watching.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in Nova Kakhovka... ummm, Airborne troops. Lots of them, apparently.
Some sort of BMD-base vehicle (possibly a command vehicle?), Nona 120mm mortars, and a BTR-80UNSh variant.
Airborne unit is heading towards the dam. They've stopped at the checkpoint, possibly to allow the column to catch up.
A couple BTRs cutting in line, and the BMDs are starting to rev their engines, probably getting ready to move. Also, a new fire in the far distance.
The airborne unit is moving forward towards the dam.
On the one hand, the BMD has tin foil armor - front protection against 30mm cannon, but the sides only protect against 12.7mm (50 cal) machine guns.

On the other hand, these are some of Russia's better troops, and this is at least an entire regiment.
Still moving through the checkpoint. I think someone said it took 40 minutes to move past the other camera.

Also, the distant fire appears to be extinguished.
Aaaaand traffic jam.
New unit making its way toward the dam.
Some interesting loads on/behind these trucks. Also, traffic jam again.
Not sure what the first two are, but the last one is a Pantsir short-range air defense system.
Adding more vehicles and men will definitely help fix the traffic problem here.
Ugh. I'm being way too flippant about this. In the back of my head, I know these are people's sons, that they're in Ukraine to kill (and be killed), and it's kind of soul-crushing to be watching this and unable to do anything about it.
More vehicles heading back from the dam. Also, the Maidan Square live camera in Kyiv is down for me.
Didn't we see these tankers not that long ago going the other direction?

Also a truck with a crane and a box with windows. I forgot what it's called.
Yes, we have seen them before. I specifically remember seeing that tanker truck towing another tanker truck.
The returning column is turning on to a side street that links up with Volytsya Promyslova (and thence Prospekt Dniprovskyy and Vulitsya Frantsuzka). Possibly headed toward Oleshky and the bridge to Kherson?
LOL stuck again.

Yes, it's war, but the traffic problems here are kind of hilarious. If it weren't surrounded by houses, this would be begging for an artillery strike.
Oh, hey, the Pantsir is moving.
Another Pantsir. Also, Frigorifique? Is that pronounced "Fridge-o-rific"?
Traffic back to low levels, though still some military equipment travelling back from the dam.
Aaaaand I think we pissed someone off. Fun time is over.

Fuckers.
I'm honestly kind of sad. Was that my fault?

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More from @DuitsmanMS

Sep 26
Oh, I think I recognize that failure mode. There are 3 possibilities:

Failure during propellant loading
Failure during launch preparation
Failure to ignite on launch

but...
First stage ignition failure is the one that came to mind first. Sarmat is cold-launched. The missile is ejected from the silo by a small solid propellant "pressure accumulator." The first stage engine does not ignite until the missile leaves the silo.
Sarmat's predecessor, the SS-18 mod 5 (R-36M2), is also cold-launched (as were all SS-18 variants). The cap that separates from the missile protects the missile and first stage engines during ejection.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 21, 2023
Someone mentioned the 4D10 (the rocket engine in the R-27/SS-N-6) on Twitter.

The 4D10 is one of the reasons I got into rocket propulsion. It's also a ridiculously complex engine.

(I put this together in a hurry, so it's a bit short of pictures.)
2/18 As Dr. Postol mentioned, the 4D10 is a submerged engine. On the vast majority of liquid-propellant missiles and rockets, the engine(s) are mounted below the propellant tanks.

Image
Image
Image
3/18 But as a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the R-27 needed to be very compact, with the largest possible propellant tanks to maximize range. Thus, the 4D10 was submerged in the R-27's fuel tank, with only the tip of the nozzle protruding from the missile's bottom.
Image
Image
Read 19 tweets
Apr 16, 2022
I think it's very unlikely that Moskva was carrying nuclear warheads.

However, if it was carrying nuclear warheads, two is probably the right number. 1/4
In his 2012 paper, Igor Sutyagin estimates that the Slava-class cruisers had 4 warheads assigned to them - 2 nuclear-armed SS-N-12 anti-ship missiles, 1 nuclear-armed SA-N-6 surface-to-air missile, and 1 nuclear depth bomb for the ship's helicopter. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/ato…
I'm not sure the nuclear SA-N-6s still exist (if they ever did), and removing a depth bomb from the magazine is probably an easy task. I suspect the SS-N-12s, however, are a pain to move around, and can understand the crew avoiding switching out missiles whenever possible.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 15, 2022
I had initially filed these under "huh, that's interesting." In retrospect, I'm really embarrassed that we didn't follow this more closely. 1/7
2/7 For the longest time, we'd wondered what these circular caps on bottom of the missile were for. Now we know: they're covers for penetration aid tubes.

During the terminal part of its flight, the Iskander-M can poop out up to six penetration aids. But what are they?
3/7 Generally speaking, penetration aids (PENAIDs) can work three different ways: physically, as a decoy, using its radar return; thermally, using a flare to spoof heat-seeking weapons, and electronically, spoofing or jamming radars and electronics.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 8, 2022
1/17 I agree with this assessment. Nonetheless, since I am apparently a masochist, I geolocated all of the nuclear weapons storage sites active in Belarus during the 1980s.

I'm pretty sure there were 22 of them, though I am open to corrections.
2/17 First, a few notes: In Russian and Soviet service, nuclear weapons (except those attached to deployed strategic missiles) are under the control of the 12th Main/Chief Directorate (12 GUMO), a separate branch of the military directly subordinate to the Ministry of Defense. Image
3/17 Thus, while a 12 GUMO unit might be attached to a nuclear-capable unit, the chains of command are separate.

Also, outside of the Strategic Rocket Forces (RVSN), 12 GUMO bases are rarely co-located with the units responsible for delivering the nuclear weapons in wartime.
Read 17 tweets
Jan 14, 2022
Yesterday's launch was rail-mobile. Presumably the KN-23-like missile they tested last September?
Oh, that's interesting. They uncoupled the locomotive prior to launch. So the 2-car set for the missiles is a self-contained unit and (similar to the Soviet RT-23) doesn't need to draw power from the locomotive.
Of the two cars, one obviously carries the missiles (and, based on the September launch, the generator), and the other (let's call it the support systems car) presumably carries electronics, tools, and whatnot.
Read 4 tweets

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