Someone just asked me how long I think the war will last. Well - it depends on your definition really.
Of course, nobody really knows... but what I anticipate is as follows.
1. Kyiv falls within days. Zelensky is likely killed. A puppet government is installed.
Of course, nobody really knows... but what I anticipate is as follows.
1. Kyiv falls within days. Zelensky is likely killed. A puppet government is installed.
2. The rest of Ukraine also falls - in a manner of speaking - within weeks. But...
3. That's when the guerilla fighting really kicks in. With Russia, claiming to be in 'control', sustaining constant casualties which undermine Putin back home.
3. That's when the guerilla fighting really kicks in. With Russia, claiming to be in 'control', sustaining constant casualties which undermine Putin back home.
4. Western sanctions steadily ratchet up. Nobody other than rogue states recognise the puppet government; the Russian economy falls into ever greater disrepair; the already appalled Russian people become gradually more and more fed up.
5. If - and it's a big if - China calculates that Russia has gone too far and Putin is finished, it might, maybe, step in to help Europe with its desperate energy needs. So might Qatar.
6. Ultimately, Putin is forced out by furious Russian billionaires and/or the army.
6. Ultimately, Putin is forced out by furious Russian billionaires and/or the army.
The spin will be that he has retired because of 'ill health'. Which for once, will actually be true.
7. None of the sanctions will be lifted until Russia fully withdraws from Ukraine, and is made to pay substantial reparations. Not difficult given the assets seized.
7. None of the sanctions will be lifted until Russia fully withdraws from Ukraine, and is made to pay substantial reparations. Not difficult given the assets seized.
8. Ukraine, restored to independence, joins NATO.
9. A deeply chastened Russia falls back, an eternally reduced power, and ends up geopolitically dominated by China.
I do not believe Putin will go after the Baltic states. If he does, I think his generals will step in.
9. A deeply chastened Russia falls back, an eternally reduced power, and ends up geopolitically dominated by China.
I do not believe Putin will go after the Baltic states. If he does, I think his generals will step in.
But we're talking years here. This is a long, long, long haul. Even the EU won't be able to implement the most draconian sanctions until it has found enough alternative supplies of energy.
This will accelerate the need for pipelines from Qatar. But that won't happen overnight.
This will accelerate the need for pipelines from Qatar. But that won't happen overnight.
Qatar has contractual obligations to other parts of the world which it will not break.
In the meantime, inflation and energy prices will rise further, worsening the cost of living crisis and likely undermining any government in charge of countries experiencing that.
In the meantime, inflation and energy prices will rise further, worsening the cost of living crisis and likely undermining any government in charge of countries experiencing that.
That'll likely be good for Labour in Britain. Bad for the Democrats in the US.
We must all prepare for devastating scenes over the next few days and weeks. Mass panic. Demands for the impossible from people horrified at what they'll see.
And hot takes that Putin has 'won'.
We must all prepare for devastating scenes over the next few days and weeks. Mass panic. Demands for the impossible from people horrified at what they'll see.
And hot takes that Putin has 'won'.
But he won't ultimately win. Just as neither Bush nor Blair, contrary to their initial 'mission accomplished' claims, ultimately won in Iraq either.
The downfall of Vladimir Putin commenced when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
The downfall of Vladimir Putin commenced when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
Because nobody will say boo to a goose around them for obvious reasons, all long term dictators lose touch with reality and go mad.
I think he genuinely *believes* Ukraine is run by 'Nazis'. And thus that Russian forces would be welcomed by Ukrainians with open arms.
I think he genuinely *believes* Ukraine is run by 'Nazis'. And thus that Russian forces would be welcomed by Ukrainians with open arms.
He's got another think coming on that. His warped view of history means he thought this campaign would be low risk. And that the West would not follow through with its threats.
In reality, he's turned his country into a pariah state. Destroyed its international reputation.
In reality, he's turned his country into a pariah state. Destroyed its international reputation.
When dictatorships are internationally isolated by sanctions, they always erode from within.
That was actually happening in Saddam's Iraq for years before our idiotic invasion; so much so that he pretended to have WMD to preserve his 'strongman' status.
That was actually happening in Saddam's Iraq for years before our idiotic invasion; so much so that he pretended to have WMD to preserve his 'strongman' status.
Instead, polycratic chaos ruled.
We always imagine that dictators have full domestic control. When things go wrong for their economies and societies, they no longer do.
The very same polycratic chaos developed in Nazi Germany as it started losing the war too.
We always imagine that dictators have full domestic control. When things go wrong for their economies and societies, they no longer do.
The very same polycratic chaos developed in Nazi Germany as it started losing the war too.
Hitler and Saddam went down in infamy. So, in the end, will Putin.
But as with all humanity's worst, most dire conflicts, it'll all take considerable time first. Too much time, tragically, for so many brave heroes in Ukraine.
But as with all humanity's worst, most dire conflicts, it'll all take considerable time first. Too much time, tragically, for so many brave heroes in Ukraine.
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