Someone just asked me how long I think the war will last. Well - it depends on your definition really.
Of course, nobody really knows... but what I anticipate is as follows.
1. Kyiv falls within days. Zelensky is likely killed. A puppet government is installed.
2. The rest of Ukraine also falls - in a manner of speaking - within weeks. But...
3. That's when the guerilla fighting really kicks in. With Russia, claiming to be in 'control', sustaining constant casualties which undermine Putin back home.
4. Western sanctions steadily ratchet up. Nobody other than rogue states recognise the puppet government; the Russian economy falls into ever greater disrepair; the already appalled Russian people become gradually more and more fed up.
5. If - and it's a big if - China calculates that Russia has gone too far and Putin is finished, it might, maybe, step in to help Europe with its desperate energy needs. So might Qatar.
6. Ultimately, Putin is forced out by furious Russian billionaires and/or the army.
The spin will be that he has retired because of 'ill health'. Which for once, will actually be true.
7. None of the sanctions will be lifted until Russia fully withdraws from Ukraine, and is made to pay substantial reparations. Not difficult given the assets seized.
8. Ukraine, restored to independence, joins NATO.
9. A deeply chastened Russia falls back, an eternally reduced power, and ends up geopolitically dominated by China.
I do not believe Putin will go after the Baltic states. If he does, I think his generals will step in.
But we're talking years here. This is a long, long, long haul. Even the EU won't be able to implement the most draconian sanctions until it has found enough alternative supplies of energy.
This will accelerate the need for pipelines from Qatar. But that won't happen overnight.
Qatar has contractual obligations to other parts of the world which it will not break.
In the meantime, inflation and energy prices will rise further, worsening the cost of living crisis and likely undermining any government in charge of countries experiencing that.
That'll likely be good for Labour in Britain. Bad for the Democrats in the US.
We must all prepare for devastating scenes over the next few days and weeks. Mass panic. Demands for the impossible from people horrified at what they'll see.
And hot takes that Putin has 'won'.
But he won't ultimately win. Just as neither Bush nor Blair, contrary to their initial 'mission accomplished' claims, ultimately won in Iraq either.
The downfall of Vladimir Putin commenced when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
Because nobody will say boo to a goose around them for obvious reasons, all long term dictators lose touch with reality and go mad.
I think he genuinely *believes* Ukraine is run by 'Nazis'. And thus that Russian forces would be welcomed by Ukrainians with open arms.
He's got another think coming on that. His warped view of history means he thought this campaign would be low risk. And that the West would not follow through with its threats.
In reality, he's turned his country into a pariah state. Destroyed its international reputation.
When dictatorships are internationally isolated by sanctions, they always erode from within.
That was actually happening in Saddam's Iraq for years before our idiotic invasion; so much so that he pretended to have WMD to preserve his 'strongman' status.
Instead, polycratic chaos ruled.
We always imagine that dictators have full domestic control. When things go wrong for their economies and societies, they no longer do.
The very same polycratic chaos developed in Nazi Germany as it started losing the war too.
Hitler and Saddam went down in infamy. So, in the end, will Putin.
But as with all humanity's worst, most dire conflicts, it'll all take considerable time first. Too much time, tragically, for so many brave heroes in Ukraine.
Anyway, for the benefit of the hard of thinking, here's some facts.
1. Ukrainian democracy was mired in corruption and far worse for a long, long time. In 2004, during the election campaign, Viktor Yuschenko - pro-EU, pro-NATO, anti-corruption - was poisoned by Russia.
The levels of TCDD found in his blood were FIFTY THOUSAND TIMES GREATER than normal. It was remarkable he survived at all.
Just a moment to thank and welcome all my new followers. I'm a bit shocked. And humbled.
They include - and this is lovely, I admire them hugely - Simon Schama, Stephen Sackur, Laura Pidcock and Daniel Taylor.
Plus MEPs, MSPs, the odd senator, journalists, historians, writers.
And - before this turns into a lovefest for blue ticks - this absolutely massive number of smart people who think about things, care about others, and who all share common values.
Not an echo chamber at all. But common values. Which all speak so loudly at a time like this.
We've all been through a time of so much division, so much anger; all turning on each other, with this platform intensifying that.
But if you ever wanted to know just how precious democracy and humanity are, if what's going on doesn't tell you, nothing ever will.
Take a look at this map. It's of the current situation at 9am today courtesy of the excellent @remilitari.
What's the first thing any military or diplomatic mind would notice? Look at Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, Crimea in the south - but no Russian route between them.
Other than, that is, one small bridge from the Russian mainland.
Apart from that, Crimea has been effectively cut off since 2014 - which is why I assume this Russian attack has been very long in the planning, with NATO's 'threat' used as a false pretext.
Russia claiming to be acting in defensive or security interests goes back a very, very, very long way.
It's why, even now, many on the left and in left-wing historiography tend to sympathise with Stalin's behaviour after World War Two.
"A gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis who have lodged themselves in Kyiv and taken hostage the entire Ukrainian people".
1. Has there been any research done on the impact of industrial amounts of botox on dictators?
2. Some people might argue he just described his own army!
3. He's either gone mad - completely - a madman with a nuclear arsenal threatening much of Europe, what a time to be alive... or he's trolling everyone by literally channeling Bush and Blair.
"They did it, so why can't I? They demonised a regime. They said their quarrel wasn't with the people while bombing them to smithereens.
They ignored everyone else on some bullshit pretext of 'security'. They ripped up international law and faced no consequences at all".
2. Treating the country that's been invaded and the country that's invaded it as equivalent
3. Complaining about any support of any kind being given to the country that's been invaded
4. Referring to a dead diplomatic agreement which has been ripped up by the aggressor
5. Referring to a democratically elected government as a 'regime'
6. Citing public annoucements of entirely accurate intelligence about the likelihood of an invasion as 'pouring oil on the fire' (in other words, STWC would rather not know, cos the truth is VERY AWKWARD for them)
The statement is extraordinarily foolish and the speed of their furious backpedalling leaves me wondering if the Labour MPs who signed it even read it.
Without even mentioning the Tories' dodgy beyond belief financial dealings, it blames Britain (!) for war having broken out.
No. It was to warn the peoples of the world what was coming - and especially to counter Russian disinformation, which will manifest itself as never before now.
The intelligence said Russia would invade. Russia has invaded.
The statement also predictably blames NATO and denies Ukraine has any sovereign right to join it or any other military alliance - despite everything we're seeing today confirming why it was so frantic to join.