if your macro narrative is 'well done Germany, your balanced budgets have created the fiscal space you need now to deal with geopolitical challenges posed by Russia' - your austerity ideology is blinding you to the obvious
my bet - European Commission will embrace this narrative next week and double down on its Carbon Contracts for Difference strategy of derisking private investments in decarbonisation, ignoring the painful lessons from Germany's Energiewende
have spent this week in class discussing a 2009 Lin vs Chang debate on industrial policy that goes at the core of the decarbonisation debate - what do we mean when we discuss the revival of industrial policy?
the Lin state - a facilitating state that corrects market failures - is in its new incarnation the derisking state that tinkers with price signals but doesn't PICK winners.
It is also exactly the state, and industrial policy, guiding German Greens in green ordoliberalism vision
until Wednesday, I thought political magic of green ordoliberalism is ultimately a question of macroeconomic doctrine - it crafts decarbonisation viable within the macrofinancial status quo
Putin just made the gaping holes in that argument visible to anyone
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1. set the Maastricht sacred cows free, forever out of sight 2. let @ecb work closely with governments to protect fiscal space 3. drop the 'mobilisation of private investment' language, time to discipline financiers into doing what we want, instead of bribing them.
if there is some silver lining in this super depressing glorification of war/arms etc, let it be this one
first, institutional landlords are not just notorious private equity firms like Blackstone, but your pension fund, insurance companies, family offices and endowments, cash-rich multinational corporations, Sovereign Wealth Funds and asset managers - a glut of institutional capital
institutional capital targeting European housing is large, a portfolio glut ready to deploy trillions if it can find houses to purchase at scale
the #GlobalGateway strategy seeks to 'unleash' EUR300 bn for infrastructure investments around the world based on 'values, transparency and sustainability'
wonder what values embodied by (German) Compact with Africa push for PPPs in health or education that force user-fees and de-facto privatisation of social infrastructure