As someone who studies war, this isn’t a regular war. This is BIG. Invasion of Iraq big.
At first glance, the Russian invasion looks like it’s just about Ukraine and NATO. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. The consequences of this moment will reverberate for decades.
/1
At first glance, the Russian invasion looks like it’s just about Ukraine and NATO. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. The consequences of this moment will reverberate for decades.
/1
https://twitter.com/brettbruen/status/1497267079438909441
At a minimum, the #RussiaInvasion of Ukraine now makes China’s invasion of Taiwan a virtual certainty. When, not if. #NewRules
/2
/2
Supply chains will be reconfigured on all sides. Covid revealed how you couldn’t rely even on allies to share critical infrastructure in moments of true crisis. But the Russian invasion and secondary sanctions could now break globalization as we know it. #SWIFT #NewRules
/3
/3
Depending on how the invasion goes & Russia’s occupation of Ukraine, we will likely end up with #NewRules of the game.
Up for grabs: Increased military role for Germany,
new NATO members (Finland & Sweden), major UNSC reform, long term insurgency in Ukraine, etc.
/4
Up for grabs: Increased military role for Germany,
new NATO members (Finland & Sweden), major UNSC reform, long term insurgency in Ukraine, etc.
/4
Several ways to slice this:
1- democracies vs autocracies
2- regional spheres of influence, given that Russia and China are very actively carving out their own
3- state sovereignty 101: you can do whatever you want within your own borders. Forget the ICC, R2P, POC.
/5
1- democracies vs autocracies
2- regional spheres of influence, given that Russia and China are very actively carving out their own
3- state sovereignty 101: you can do whatever you want within your own borders. Forget the ICC, R2P, POC.
/5
Could also be much worse. I’m assuming that Trump doesn’t become president in 2024, and far right groups don’t win elections in major Western countries.
This is an inflection point. The liberal order was already in disarray. But the #RussiaInvasion could kill it.
/6
This is an inflection point. The liberal order was already in disarray. But the #RussiaInvasion could kill it.
/6
Update: The first of my predictions from yesterday has just come true.
In tweet #4, I mentioned Germany would have an increased military role. And here we are.👇
If you don’t follow security and defence, this won’t seem like a big deal. But it’s actually HUGE. #Ukraine #Stingers
In tweet #4, I mentioned Germany would have an increased military role. And here we are.👇
If you don’t follow security and defence, this won’t seem like a big deal. But it’s actually HUGE. #Ukraine #Stingers
https://twitter.com/jeremycliffe/status/1497637902918070278
Honestly wasn’t expecting such a strong reaction!
The 🧵 came after a conversation w/ @DrStaceyG. We were both frustrated that the analysis was very Ukraine-Russia focused, w/o any zooming out to systemic effects on the intl system, which we both thought were totemic. 🙌 Stacey!
The 🧵 came after a conversation w/ @DrStaceyG. We were both frustrated that the analysis was very Ukraine-Russia focused, w/o any zooming out to systemic effects on the intl system, which we both thought were totemic. 🙌 Stacey!
Germany has also just committed to spending over 2% of GDP on defence, as per NATO targets.
This is a new and much more muscular Germany. Will reshape European security relationships and balance of power in Europe. It’s a BIG change. Germans themselves might not be ready for it.
This is a new and much more muscular Germany. Will reshape European security relationships and balance of power in Europe. It’s a BIG change. Germans themselves might not be ready for it.
https://twitter.com/andrew_r_gray/status/1497883056098758658
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