I wanted to understand the tweet quoted below. So I did some research. What better source than the Central Bank of Russia.🧵
cbr.ru/Collection/Col…
The composition of Russia foreign exchange reserves is shown in the chart on the left per assets class. On the right, the chart showing the geographical location of counterparties
or issuers of securities ie. the true place of residence of the assets. 2/
The geographical location of Russia's counterparties is:
- Russia (Gold) 23%
- China 13%
- Japan 12%
- Germany 12%
- France 10%
- USA 7%
- International financial institutions (IMF) 5%
- UK 4%
- Canada 2%
- Finland 2%
- Others 8%
3/
Now imagine that Western powers decide to impose sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) like those imposed on some of the main Russian banks, prohibiting any dealing with the CBR. At a stroke none of the foreign counterparties would be able to deal with the CBR. 4/
Putin's war chest would in effect be worthless. Meanwhile the rouble has plunged. He would be entirely dependent for financing his army & his state on the sale of gas & oil in foreign currencies. Potentially the customers could dictate the price.He would be desperate to sell 5/
(assuming sanctions do not prevent him/Gazprom/Lukoil getting paid). The blackmailer would be caught at his own game in reverse. Now, if it looks so simple,it might be wrong. Things are rarely simple. But I would REALLY, REALLY like someone to explain clearly 6/
why this can't be done? Conventions ( it simply isn't done)? Treaties? Desire not to punish the Russian population? Fear of retortion? Please could someone competent & knowledgeable in those hyper complex topics of sanctions & geopolitics, explain it? Thank you very much. END
Ah, this article indicates that the US is considering sanctions on the CBR but not having a subscription, I was limited in my reading...
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Above article dated today 26 February 22
But I do subscribe to @fr which reported the same based on Bloomberg article
And IT'S DONE! 👏👏👏 US, UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the European Commission

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More from @mafevema

Feb 27
Very interesting piece in @FT on the effects of the sanctions on the Russian Central bank & the SWIFT ban.
1.foreign exchange reserves are a key pillar of Russia's economic strength. The western allies are attempting to undermine its ability to tap the stockpile
2.A large chunk of Russia's foreign exchange stockpile is held overseas in the US, Germany, France, UK, Austria and Japan.(see right graph) Image
3. Withour access to the FE reserves, the CBR will be hamstrung in its ability to defend the rouble. It could eventually lead to bank runs. Russians have already been flocking to banks to withdraw cash
Read 12 tweets
Feb 27
Totally agree.
Democracies have behaved well, far better than Putin expected.
They acted collectively, accepted to take very big hits in principle (particularly Germany & Italy but also to their financial sectors) & showed resolve & determination. 1/4
Now they have to show long term resilience under public pressure, no doubt agitated by Russian propaganda & pro-russians collaborators within ,( @MLP_officiel @ERICZEMMOUR2022 @matteosalvinimi @Nigel_Farage ) 2/
In the UK, UKG must in particular follow through on oligarchs money. 👇 will greatly help but it will be tough & require Opposition vigilance in Parliament. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
Les pourvoyeurs de haine et de peur @ERICZEMMOUR2022 @MLP_officiel ont eut une TRES mauvaise semaine. 1/
Les democracies soit disant impuissantes:
1. ont ce soir gelé tous les actifs en monnaie étrangère de la Russie, le trésor de guerre de M. Poutine dont les médias nous rabattaient les oreilles. Complètement inutilisable...2/
2. ont envoyé armes, fioul & munitions à l'Ukraine. Même l'Allemagne qui a répudié (au moins momentairement) une décision stratégique de plusieurs décennies
3.ont accepté le risque de coupures d'energie et mis fin à Nord Stream II
4. Loin de s'écraser devant Pourine, 3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 26
Great, great news!
This may not turn out so well for M. Putin after all.

His war chest is useless & mostly inaccessible.

His army isn't winning & demotivated by strong resistance 1/
on.ft.com/3vn7gMQ via @FT
His close entourage is under sanctions & so is he (the cosy retirement in a Putin's Palace is no longer an option)
His whole Duma of laqueys under sanctions too ( & likely furious).
A courageous proportion of his population is protesting & many others do not support his war 2/
The "weak democracies" turn out to have guts after all & are harming his economy, personal finances & arming #Ukraine

Some will start to question his judgement openly & turn against him.
Maybe not yet. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 19
I am in two minds about this.
Many investigations-e.g for fraud but also other potentially criminal behaviour - prove to be baseless. Is it right that people should be vilified by public opinion, theguardian.com/world/2022/feb…
their reputation destroyed, sometimes for ever ("there is no smoke without fire" etc) when they have not even be charged? I don't buy the argument that this will only benefit the wealthy & powerful. If there was well established case law, it would benefit everyone & the tabloids
would have to take notice or pay big fines. Often there is far more noise around the investigation itself than there is when it is dropped (often not reported at all) & they can go on limply for years before they are officially closed. Provided there is a public
Read 6 tweets
Feb 19
On "the Benefits of Brexit" issued by UKG.
-Imperial markings: there was no EU ban on imperial markings and sales, nor on use of the crown stamp on pint glasses.
-Turing scheme: nothing prevents an EU Member State putting it in place 
-blue passports: EU law never stopped the UK
from preferring blue passports
-the opportunity to reduce taxes on alcohol: the UK's relatively high taxes on alcohol are a domestic choice not an EU obligation (hence booze trips to Calais)
Selling heritage products: Burberry, Northampton handmade shoes, Harris Tweed (page 58), a new independent regulator for English football (p 64), safer streets (p 65), marriages at sea (p 75) and Community Forests (87). Things now feasible only due to Brexit? Absolutely not.
Read 6 tweets

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