Thread by @maidperdu

#Ukraine Day 3 is ending and I am very worried that we passed a first pick of the war, clearly favorable to Ukraine, regaining Sumy being one the numerous victories of the day.
Now, let me take you to a nightmarish scenario, based on the recent tweets.
1) The numbers of Ukrainian

casualties is surprisingly low, for no major cities to fall. To this we can add the numerous video ridiculing Russian army.
Hypothesis : Putin did believe he could win without sweating, attacking on 4 fronts, he sent the B-team and actually asked to limit

civilian casualties.
2) West finally reacted fully by :
a) Money : to the first financial sanctions we can add now Swift and maybe on the CBR.
This, unexpected, could hit far more the Ruble than it did recently (-10%) and quickly.
b) Military aid, finally. Let's hope it will not

be too late. Behind this military aid (and Swift), we must stress the German pivot. As one mentioned : recognition we can't come bsck to statu quo ante.
c) Russia isolation : from sports, flying or consuming Apple products, BMW or Pornhub.
Putin may hid his war to russians,

they will now feel its effects quickly. Note sure if UK started to actually clean Londongrad though.
d) Image : first the huge wave of visible sympathy from all over the occidental world : football, protests in so many cities, russian sportmen... I won't get fooled by the

sincerity of those in the Instagram/Tiktok era but it has been large and again most likely visible to Russian public. But there is an expected twist : Zelensky
By designated him as a personnal ennemy, Putin focused the attention on a guy who was known, and mocked, by

Western media to be a former comedian, to a hero president. It started with a great speech at Munich, then his people, then to Russians. Then in the past few days, he kept supporting his people from the very ground asking for ammo. Even Putin must see his dimension is

changing by the minute. He is young, smart, has a family and is fighting alone with his country the army every other western country is afraid of.

At this point, people supporting Ukraine tend to forget the ground reality : with the B-team, Putin has opened 4 large fronts,

is encircling both Kyiv and Mariupol, destroyed a large part of the UA airplanes -even though not entirely- and started a migrants wave to Europe.
Today, we heard about :
a) larger fronts
b) TOS-01
c) Karyrov's 10 000 barbarians

I don't see Putin backing now, do you ?
And if he

did, let's not lose of sight of the fact it would lead to a disastrous Minsk 3, given his gains.
My fear is that he will unleash hell in the next hours and days.
We have to remember what Russia did in Syria (see feed).
It would be too soon for Ukrainians to use the new military

aid. Mariupol could fall thus allowing a first big junction, opening the way the conquest of the West by activating Transnistria army.

All this could be done in a dirty way, prioritising effectiveness, destruction and as side effect, pushing ukrainians to the fault,

thus supplying terrible scenes to feed the propaganda the West will surely keep eating (after a decade of addiction) while the beautiful Ukrainian resistance of today would turn into a total disaster that could also disappear from the screens. Another noted mistery : why is

everything online yet ? Probably because he did believe in winning fast.

To stop this Syria scenario, I believe Russians people would be decisive, if sanctions hit fast enough + China saying stop + continued support by Europe, up to the point of actual limited military support.

The conclusion of this scenario is catastrophic. Putin staying in power or not, he would let Ukraine, and probably Moldova, crippled for years, as well as Europe and Russia, crashing economically.

I don't see Putin stopped soon enough without at least a no fly zone.

Themread broke here, see answer to previous tweet for the end.

I realize that I did not explicit 2 points :
a) Zelensky is in great danger, of being killed or thrown in jail with Navalny. The sooner he gets rid of him, the sooner the less he may become martyr. Putain may know it is too late already.
b) Diminishing gas delivery, a lot.

Thread would be incomplete without the new unexpected player : the Anonymous.
If they actually did this tonight, for enough time to be seen, who can know the combined effects with economic hell ?

https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1497678663046905863?t=lDYbXcb498Fx6BGoABPXGw&s=19

How effective are financial sanctions ? It is complex, with time and perimeter aspects, the end-point is : trust in any RU organization is being destroyed. This alone = an economic disaster.

*But* at the end of the day, Russia still has massively gas, oil, wheat the world needs.

@threadreaderapp unroll

https://twitter.com/maidperdu/status/1498076387328016384?t=BNhtUoG_nVZj823R5l4EoQ&s=19