Caveat regarding situation in Ukraine.
This isn't a warning about unverified claims, images, & video. Ppl are familiar w/that.
Situation overall is evidently a temperate version of "Russia not doing as well as expected."
No need to doubt that, though anecdotes keep falling... 1/7
This isn't a warning about unverified claims, images, & video. Ppl are familiar w/that.
Situation overall is evidently a temperate version of "Russia not doing as well as expected."
No need to doubt that, though anecdotes keep falling... 1/7
...apart.
Initial damage/kill numbers rarely reliable in conflict this size. Understood.
Caveat is about taking Russia's failures w/out question as to *why.*
It's not interesting to conclude things are going wrong for Russia.
Russia is DOING everything wrong. Why? 2/7
Initial damage/kill numbers rarely reliable in conflict this size. Understood.
Caveat is about taking Russia's failures w/out question as to *why.*
It's not interesting to conclude things are going wrong for Russia.
Russia is DOING everything wrong. Why? 2/7
Russia keeps exposing poorly defended & inadequate advance forces to a counterattack capability the whole world knows is there. Not like it's a surprise.
Russians mounted major entry ops w/out sufficient deep/interdiction fires first. Why?
Russia seems, by report, to... 3/7
Russians mounted major entry ops w/out sufficient deep/interdiction fires first. Why?
Russia seems, by report, to... 3/7
...have used confused, unseasoned troops in first waves. Why?
It's merely rational to wonder why Russia is doing unnecessarily stupid things. The Russians aren't stupid.
Nor is this about supposing there's a brilliant but hidden plan. Silly.
But I do suggest not taking ... 4/7
It's merely rational to wonder why Russia is doing unnecessarily stupid things. The Russians aren't stupid.
Nor is this about supposing there's a brilliant but hidden plan. Silly.
But I do suggest not taking ... 4/7
...everything at face value. Hold fire on the hot takes.
Even the most judicious analyses aren't asking the right questions.
Original force buildup gave Russia big advantage that's not being used in Ukraine. Even as he reportedly moves to blast Ukraine (Sat night)... 5/7
Even the most judicious analyses aren't asking the right questions.
Original force buildup gave Russia big advantage that's not being used in Ukraine. Even as he reportedly moves to blast Ukraine (Sat night)... 5/7
...Putin is bombarding Kyiv, Kharkiv & other pop centers when he shd be eliminating Ukraine's anti-air capabilities & flattening "landscape" around key terrain to facilitate maneuver.
Serious buildup followed by unserious campaign makes no sense, taking things at ... 6/7
Serious buildup followed by unserious campaign makes no sense, taking things at ... 6/7
...face value.
Worth thinking about. Grateful that Ukraine has fought back so courageously & hasn't fallen yet, but Russia making every mistake in the book still requires explanation, esp. after the textbook buildup.
7/7
Worth thinking about. Grateful that Ukraine has fought back so courageously & hasn't fallen yet, but Russia making every mistake in the book still requires explanation, esp. after the textbook buildup.
7/7
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