Military experts are having a lot of their analyses colored by how many likes and retweets they can get on social media. It's expertise driven by popular consensus. A shame, because they're not giving us a proper read on the situation in Ukraine/Russia.
They're wishcasting, playing into the Marvel Cinematic Universe superhero narrative of some Ghost of Kiev coming to save the day, defeating the Ancient Evil that's invaded Ukraine's borders. No one wants Ukraine to lose, but we have to be realistic about their options.
There is no Ghost of Tsushima to save Japan from the Mongols in real life.
If Europe was serious about helping Ukraine it would be sending massive amounts of arms into the country, not just a couple thousand stingers or 5,000 helmets (Germany is a joke). It would also stop buying Russian oil and importing its natural gas. The sanctions are all talk.
And because Europe is in no way capable of easing its dependence on Russia in the short term, or even the medium term, it's therefore necessary for us to accept reality and understand that Ukraine has no option but to hold a ceasefire with Russia (even against US/EU advice).
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