Fantastic thread. This is exactly it. And while we've all wondered for so long, "what does he get by constantly fomenting chaos and division in the West?", we have our answer now.
He thought he'd weaken us so much that he could just walk into Ukraine. And maybe other places too.
A reminder that at British elections, Russia was already at it during the Scottish referendum. Salmond's ties with RT have always left me feeling deeply uncomfortable and must've started somewhere.
But then, he was close to Murdoch at one point too!
A reminder of the huge importance of the hideous Paul Manafort in much of what Carole's set out. Who Trump pardoned in December 2020. 🤮🤮🤮
But this invasion has, one way or another, been in the planning for fully 8 years.
That makes it absolutely inconceivable that what we've seen so far is all Russia has to offer in military terms.
So far, they've sent in astonishingly badly trained, badly resourced, inexperienced forced conscripts, who were lied to outright about their mission.
I can't get my head around that, regardless of how catastrophically corrupted Russia is internally.
I think they're holding back the stronger reserves and heavier artillery for the next phase. In which I anticipate overwhelming force.
But on the other hand, see this from the former Chief of the Estonian Defence Force. Which would be absolutely astounding if true.
Let's update the map of how things currently look. With an absolutely mammoth column of Russian tanks - 64km long - headed towards Kyiv, the answer is increasingly grim. 😢
This is Phase 2 now. With Russia changing strategy, using thermobaric weapons and pouring forces in.
Forces which are likely to be better trained, better resourced and more experienced.
A couple of days ago, I mentioned Russia's obvious aim of land access from the breakaway areas in the east to Crimea. They're getting closer to achieving that now.
But focus in particular on the Dnieper River, one of the largest in Europe. That river splits Ukraine in half.
It seems to me that Putin's plan is very likely to involve annexing the whole eastern half of Ukraine - with Kyiv put under siege until the government surrenders.
At this point, a semi-digression. UK citizens are, of course, almost all paid in pounds and most only concern themselves with foreign exchange when heading abroad: on holiday in most cases.
Where I live - a small upper-middle income country - that isn't the case at all.
Here, expensive things - like electronics or most obviously, property - are priced in US dollars. Which I also pay my rent in.
When I arrived here in 2012, there were 19 Uruguayan pesos to the dollar: the former was a ridiculously overvalued currency. It's now about 43.
Your comment about 'Obama and Co deciding who was in government' is complete, total, absolute, disgraceful nonsense.
Ukraine's Parliament and shortly afterwards, Ukraine's people decided who was in government. Your total contempt for all of them sums you up.
"But Nuland but Nuland". People coming out with this drivel are thick as bloody mince.
And support someone who jailed his main rival, whose previous rival was poisoned by Russia, who stole SEVENTY BILLION DOLLARS from the people, who slaughtered 100 protestors.
Some people on my timeline are complaining about the idolisation of Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Don't people appreciate the gruesome realities of war, they ask?
Yes. We do. And it's BECAUSE we do that said idolisation is actually, healthy. Even, believe it or not, humour is.
This is an extremely frightening time for most people. In war, soldiers, civilians and mere onlookers have always sought ways to keep their spirits up.
What's happening online now, in other words, has always happened offline, for very human and necessary reasons.
In this case, here we have someone with an extraordinarily unusual life story. Who really *is* an ordinary guy with extraordinary skills.
Who dances, who tells jokes, who came into politics as an absolute outsider... and who has united not just his people, but the world.
I am deeply concerned by Biden's collapsing approval ratings. I've always thought he'd only be a one-term President.
But things are hugely in flux. Trump's in serious legal difficulties, is very overweight and will be 78 by 2024. It'll probably boil down to inflation.
The other thing is: the incumbent party almost always suffers badly at mid-terms. Americans never like one party having both the Presidency and Congress.
Yet most incumbents go on to win a second term (or in this case, the Democratic nominee, because I can't see it being Biden).
Of course, all the Republican-sanctioned voter suppression will play a sinister part too.
A question in my mind is this. How successful will the Democrats be in helping Americans realise that so much of what's happening in Ukraine is down to Trump himself?
My lecturer at LSE was one Alan Sked, founder of UKIP. This was back in 2000/2001.
He thought the UK was STILL the third most powerful country in the world. And was horrified by the idea of an EU army. I argued with him, demanding to know what we could do if Europe was attacked
He seemed to think we could just defend ourselves, as in 1940.
He gave the EU zero credit whatsoever for maintaining the post-war peace and gave it all to NATO instead. He also agreed with Thatcher's preposterous panic over German reunification, which she actually tried to stall
Crisis meetings were called in Downing Street by our then Germanphobe of a Prime Minister. She was scared of them reunifying! And he agreed with her.
All these years later, I can report unhappily that he's even more of a mad EU hater than ever. He even demanded No Deal Brexit.