Thread by @shaunjlawson

Let's update the map of how things currently look. With an absolutely mammoth column of Russian tanks - 64km long - headed towards Kyiv, the answer is increasingly grim. 😢

This is Phase 2 now. With Russia changing strategy, using thermobaric weapons and pouring forces in.

Forces which are likely to be better trained, better resourced and more experienced.

A couple of days ago, I mentioned Russia's obvious aim of land access from the breakaway areas in the east to Crimea. They're getting closer to achieving that now.

But focus in particular on the Dnieper River, one of the largest in Europe. That river splits Ukraine in half.

It seems to me that Putin's plan is very likely to involve annexing the whole eastern half of Ukraine - with Kyiv put under siege until the government surrenders.

Remember Putin's rather weird view of history?

The Dnieper has split Ukraine before: between 'Left-bank Ukraine' (the east) and 'Right-bank Ukraine' (the west) during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries.

But above, notice how neither half stretched anything like down to Crimea. Putin's dream is presumably to change that.

This is where I think a lot of Western analysis somewhat misses the point. Russia will want the western half of Ukraine to be demilitarised and left neutral.

It won't want to acquire anything west of the Dnieper - because it has no use for it. See also, any part of any NATO state.

Thus Russia's 'security interests' 🙄involve:

- Providing easy connections between itself and Crimea: militarily, strategically and commercially vital

- Taking the whole of eastern Ukraine in order to 'protect' the Donbas from 'genocide' 🙄🙄🙄

- Leaving behind a demilitarised, neutral western half: a buffer zone between expanded Russia and the West

And expecting the Ukrainian government to agree to this at the barrel of a gun.

But this is to reason without many things Putin has not taken into account at all.

1. The astonishing resistance of the Ukrainian government, army and its people. There are now many accounts of captured Russian soldiers saying they were told they'd be welcomed. Moscow did not anticipate Ukraine's response at all.

2. The unanimous, unified response not just of the West, but practically of the entire world. Putin didn't anticipate that either; he didn't think we were capable of it, and assumed Realpolitik would prevail.

After all, hasn't it always done so before?

3. The very strong likelihood of guerilla warfare long after Putin claims 'victory'. Guerilla warfare which will be armed and funded by the West, with weaponry sent across the Polish border.

4. Sanctions. Which will economically devastate Russia: especially in freezing its Central Bank's foreign-denominated assets and reserves.

Had it not been for the mindblowing heroism of the Ukrainian people over the last week, the West might've ended up accepting the dismemberment of the country as a fait accompli. In the name of 'peace' and 'stability' (meaning money).

But it won't do now. No chance.

Not with world public opinion having been utterly transformed by Putin's evil and Ukraine's heroism.

Not with the utterly hideous likelihood of the most awful scenes and news over the next couple of weeks or more. Scenes which will galvanise public opinion even further.

Meaning that the sanctions stay in place or go even further.

Meaning that the liberation of Ukraine becomes a global cause celebre - and unlike others, it's BACKED, fully, by the US and EU.

Meaning that the only way for the Russian economy is down, down, deeper and down.

Meaning that Russian oligarchs turn absolutely against Putin, and he is removed. In everyone's dreams, to The Hague.

He cannot win this war. One way or another, it's impossible for him to win this war. The Russian and Ukrainian people's suffering will only get worse.

The Russian people have brought down one impossibly distant (look at Putin's table. How much more literally distant can someone be?) leader, utterly impervious to their immense suffering, in the past.

I think they're going to end up doing so again this time.

Maybe in a different way - but it'll happen.

Whatever transpires over the next few weeks, do not despair. The West knows what a long haul this is likely to be. Ukraine will ultimately be liberated; Putin will fall.

And when he does, it will be straight to hell.

My one warning for Western leaders is this. It cannot get involved in a hot war with Russia. There will be huge demands for it to do so; these must be ignored.

Its focus instead must be on fully fortifying all NATO states, arming Ukraine through Poland and those sanctions.

We live in a time in which 24/7 media is always hysterical, always impatient, always insistent.

But that isn't how successful wars - especially of defence - work. Doing everything we can does not mean doing what we must not. The latter entails risks which are far, far too high.

In other words, however horribly painful the next phase is likely to prove, the West's response has to be governed by strategy, not emotion.

In the short term, everything is in Russia's favour. In the medium and longer term, everything is in Ukraine and the West's favour.

So we all need to sit tight, do everything we can, but have faith. And above all, hope.

With the entire world doing everything in its power to force his downfall, Putin has no chance.

#SlavaUkraïni #slavaheroyam #GloryToUkraine #GloryToTheHeroes #StandWithUkraine