Thread by @tzimmer_history

Crucial analysis by @RonBrownstein: The country is turning into a dysfunctional pseudo-democratic system nationally – and on the state level will be divided into democracy in one half of the states and authoritarian one-party rule in the other.

I’d like to add some thoughts:

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1496098537217605637

Put differently, America will be divided into a multiracial, pluralistic “blue” part that accepts the country’s changing social, cultural, and demographic realities vs. a white Christian nationalist “red” part that is led by people entirely devoted to rolling back those changes.

From a liberal, blue-state perspective, it might be tempting to say: Well, let them! Let them ruin those states and turn them into reactionary backwaters! But that would be disastrous, and not just for the white Christian nationalists who are assaulting democracy.

Remember that the “blue states vs. red states” narrative too often obscures the fact that America’s political geography is actually mostly shaped by an urban vs. rural divide. What are we telling the people who live in blue urban centers in the midst of red states: Tough luck?

“Well, they’ll have to vote with their feet and move!” I’m sure a lot of young people, especially, will do exactly that. But it leaves those behind who aren’t able to uproot their entire existence – often precisely the people who will suffer most from white reactionary politics.

Even if, somehow, everyone who prefers multiracial, pluralistic democracy were to get out of these “red” states, leaving behind only those conservative white Christians who desire to be surrounded by people who reflect their own image back at them, it would still be a disaster.

In any realistic scenario, due to a combination of the current system’s anti-majoritarian distortions and the GOP’s many aggressive anti-democratic initiatives, Republicans are basically guaranteed enough power to obstruct and prevent functional Democratic governance.

On the national level, Democrats might still have a decent chance to win the popular vote by enough that it actually translates into an electoral college majority. But as we are seeing right now, that’s not nearly enough to stop America’s accelerating slide into authoritarianism.

Ideally, the Supreme Court would step in and put a stop to the escalating attempts to roll back civil rights protections on the state level. But the conservative majority on the Court is actually doing the opposite, providing robust cover for the reactionary counter-mobilization.

We are left with a situation in which Republican-led states undermine democracy and entrench white reactionary rule, with or without the support of a majority of voters; the Supreme Court says: Keep going! And Republicans in Congress block any national counter-legislation.

Just as @RonBrownstein emphasizes, this would actually constitute a return to a constellation that defined American politics before the 1960s: An authoritarian movement entrenching white supremacy in a number of states while also shaping and/or obstructing national policy.

What’s different compared to previous eras in U.S. history, however, is that the idea of America as a nation of and for white Christians, the ideology of white Christian superiority, now clearly lacks majority support – entrenching it is an authoritarian minority-rule project.

That also means that the current situation is unsustainable. Some form of stability can only be achieved by either overcoming reactionary minority rule - or through ever more authoritarian measures and increasingly violent oppression.

The fact that a shrinking minority of white conservatives is consistently being enabled to hold on to power against the will of the majority of voters is destined to cause a massive legitimacy crisis. And unless the system is properly democratized, it is only going to get worse.

In a system that is supposedly a representative democracy, we are facing a rapidly worsening political crisis that will have to be resolved - one way or the other. Which way? We need to grapple honestly with the fact that, as of right now, that’s an open question.