Thread by @BaldingsWorld

So let's take a deep breath and recap some of where we are and some of the different points I have been hitting. 1. I think you still have to call the Russians the proverbial favorites as they have a lot more they can easily do in Ukraine. Don't mistake me here 1/n

I want the Ukranians to win but Russia has a lot of cards left to play in Ukraine and a much higher appetite to absorb and inflict savage losses. That said: this is going to be a real fight all around. True prayers be upon Ukraine that they survive this fight. 2/n

2. So far the Biden administration gets very mixed grade. They have made some real mistakes and been very slow to react. For instance, Biden being public with intel and sharing intel with Beijing is a high risk move. Given that Biden did nothing to backstop Ukraine 3/n

With additional hardware, and Putin got to see US analysis and leaks, this was clearly seen as a bluff with no cards. Would this have turned out differently if Biden played hardball earlier? Honestly, who knows. What we can say is that Putin has this funny habit of 4/n

ONLY invading the Ukraine when Biden is in the White House. Biden team does get key points because when they have actually decided to do something, they took significant steps. The Russia central bank freeze and additional arms to Ukraine are strong steps and needed 5/n

They got docked because of the delay. Even if it didn't prevent the invasion, Ukraine is definitely now playing from behind. 3. Germany and the EU get major points. They deserve a lot of criticism for their past decade of unicorns and cotton candy foreign policy but for now 6/n

I'm not going to stress that given their about face including strong financial sanctions and arms movement to Ukraine. What is absolutely key however is whether this represents a six month crash diet or whether this represents a fundamental rethink of Germany and EU 7/n

foreign policy, looking right at you Iran and China. Maybe I am too cynical but I would still assign a 50/50 chance this isn't applied to other countries and or that we don't see the follow through from this weekend. On a brief side note, for all the criticism of Trump 8/n

Germany and the EU basically fulfilled Trump's wish list for security and economic policy in a weekend. As much of a vindication of Trump foreign policy this weekend was, you have to call it the final failure of Merkel foreign policy. This is the repudiation of Merkel 9/n

4. I want to make one quick extension to Taiwan. Despite what the Acela Corridor Galaxy Brains are saying, the lesson being learned in PLA halls is that they need to ensure taking Taiwan fast. Fait accompli. I guarantee this is what the US military fears. Sending arms 10/n

To Taiwan48 hours after China has moved in raises risks exponentially given its island status. Why am I saying this? You CANNOT CANNOT CANNOT make the same mistake with Taiwan that were made with Ukraine. You have to be there early and with size. The last piece of good news? 11/n

Even though it has gotten virtually no attention, China a month ago changed the language around Taiwan to solve the Taiwan situation for a new era. Xi has made it pretty clear he is ushering China into a new era. This isn't 5-10 years away. It would be an absolute farce 12/n

To make the previous assumptions like Xi doesn't want to risk it. Really the dude runs concentration camps and nobody seems to really care. He takes Taiwan what do you think Mercedes or Goldman will do? Nothing. It's only going to get better. Happy Monday