My show with @PeterMcCormack on the economics of war is out today

We recorded in early Feb, before most thought Putin would invade Ukraine, but the thesis remains the same

Borrowing for war, as America has done since Vietnam, is a threat to democracy

War finance in America is headed in an undemocratic direction

Decisions about how to pay for war have been taken out of the public's hands

No longer does the US fund war with the people's consent through taxation or liberty bonds

All conflict is now paid for with borrowing
One of the most attractive and important features of a democracy is that it's less likely to go to war than a dictatorship

But fiat currency and central banking is damaging the American democratic model, making it less connected to the people and less able to stop or shorten war
When Putin invaded Ukraine, he didn't need permission from his people

There are no checks and balances

He does what he wants, because he is a dictator
Americans are supposed to be different

They are supposed to have a say

But over the past few decades, they have not had such a say

Few know what wars we are in, and fewer know how we pay for them
This show focuses on the dangers and externalities of modern war finance, and how Zero Interest Rate Policy and Quantitative Easing factor into the US government's ability to keep a bloated warfare state going, ultimately at the expense of other more productive investments
We also cover a possible future where citizens can more effectively constrain their rulers, making events like the invasions of Ukraine or Iraq much more difficult

Stay tuned: I will unpack this thesis in full on Wednesday in my next long essay for @BitcoinMagazine

✌️

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More from @gladstein

Mar 2
1/ My new essay "The Invisible Cost of War in the Age of Quantitative Easing" is live.

Putin was able to invade Ukraine because there are no checks on his tyrannical power.

Democracies in theory should be more constrained in warmaking.

But are they? 🧵

bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-th…
2/ One of the greatest argued strengths of democracy is Democratic Peace Theory

DPT observes that democracies are less likely to fight, and especially less likely to fight each other.

Democratize the world, get world peace.

But this story has one big flaw: fiat central banking
3/ Post-1971 America in the role of the world's leading democracy and guarantor of the international system has transformed how it finances war.

In the first half of the 20th century, wars were fought with taxes and "liberty bonds"

WWII was 50% financed by taxes, Korea 100%
Read 27 tweets
Feb 25
Thread with some recommended organizations to support in Ukraine 🇺🇦 🧵

1) The “Return Alive Foundation,” an NGO obtaining life-saving equipment for Ukrainian soldiers:

savelife.in.ua/en/donate/

(Accepts BTC)
2) The @KyivIndependent, producing some of the best independent media in the region, reporting on the ground from the war

kyivindependent.com
3) The Hospital Medical Battalion, helping healthcare workers in hot conflict zones.

This is an NGO supporting crews of volunteer paramedics on the front lines:

facebook.com/hospitallers/p…
Read 8 tweets
Feb 14
Hello from one of the biggest Bitcoin mines in Norway! 🇳🇴 ✌️

It was a pleasure to visit KryptoVault's Hønesfoss site today to see the impact that CEO Kjetil Hove Pettersen and team are making by harnessing running water to help defend open-source money for people worldwide
One thing I learned from Kjetil is that in addition to helping to secure the global Bitcoin network--which tens of millions of people rely on everywhere from Cuba to Iran to Palestine--they are also assisting local communities in Norway, like our friend here, a local lumberjack
Norway's sustainable forestry industry (Norwegian forests grow by about 25 million cubic meters of timber per year) often dries lumber in the summer sun, taking 2-3 months.

But here, using excess heat from Bitcoin mining, wood takes as little as 4 days to dry
Read 10 tweets
Feb 12
This @ecb paper on CBDCs reveals what kind of plans central bankers are toying with:

-Overcoming use of banknotes for savings
-Overcoming ZLB with negative interest rates on cash
-Easier ability to provide helicopter money
-Larger seignorage income to the state
-End to privacy
Full paper: "Tiered CBDC and the Financial System"

(H/T: @HaggsBoson)

ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps…
I would point out that these “benefits” are mainly monetary, for the state. Ending privacy is nice for them but they have bigger aims

Satoshi knew
Read 4 tweets
Feb 1
Some thoughts on the @saylor / @jack fireside:

On Bitcoin's global impact, Jack says it's important for there to be a world currency where "decisions in Washington don't impact people in Nigeria"

Saylor brings up the Blocksize Wars and says he didn't appreciate their significance when he first learned about Bitcoin but now realizes how critical they were.

Jack points out how remarkable the outcome was given that Satoshi didn't have to get involved.
Jack mentions that in Bitcoin, "nothing is hidden"

This is, IMO, one of the most important parts about Bitcoin.

Everything is open and knowable. There are no smoky back rooms.
Read 20 tweets
Jan 30
1/ Democratic Peace Theory rests on the idea that democracies have “skin in the game” when it comes to war and are less likely to fight than autocracies unless for a narrowly-defined, popular, vital cause.

This book by @sekreps argues convincingly that this theory is broken 🧵 Image
2/ History shows that over time representative governments—especially in this case the US—inevitably turn to financing war through *borrowing* instead of through taxes or war bonds, hiding the immediate costs of war from a public that is less and less interested in war fighting.
3/ America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (and the ongoing Global War on Terror) were — unlike WWI or WW2 or even Vietnam — paid for *entirely* by borrowing.

Bush even cut taxes during the Iraq War.

So far Americans have paid ~ $1 trillion on interest for this borrowing spree.
Read 7 tweets

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