Jesse D. Jenkins Profile picture
Feb 28, 2022 13 tweets 7 min read Read on X
NEW TODAY: REPEATProject.org report offers most comprehensive analysis yet of impacts of congressional budget & infrastructure bills, detailing impacts on CO2, investment, household energy costs, energy related jobs, public health, and more: repeatproject.org/docs/REPEAT_Su… ImageImageImageImage
We model in detail impacts of the #BuildBackBetter Act (BBBA) now stalled in the Senate.
We also model the Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act (IIJA), now law, which we find would leave annual greenhouse gas emissions 1.3 billion tons short of the nation’s 2030 climate goals. Image
Indeed, we conclude that the bipartisan infrastructure law (IIJA) delivers just 9% of the emissions reductions (relative to a Frozen Policies benchmark) needed to reach 2030 US climate goals, leaving a yawning gap unlikely to be bridged by executive action and state policy alone. Image
As President Biden prepares to deliver his SOTU, our analysis makes it clear that Congress has only started laying the foundations w/IIJA, while passing something like the clean energy package in BBBA is critical to truly build the cleaner and more secure energy economy we need.
BBBA would also lower 2030 US energy expenditures by 6.6%, an annual savings of $67 billion dollars for households, businesses and industry, shifting costs from energy bills to the progressive federal tax base, lowering U.S. energy costs and helping counteract inflation. Image
BBBA would deliver about $300 per year in lower energy costs for the average U.S. household relative to costs under IIJA alone, cutting costs for households across all regions of the country. Image
Passing BBBA would also increase cumulative capital investment in energy supply infrastructure by >$1.5 trillion from 2023-2030, relative to passage of the IIJA alone. That includes 10x increase in annual investment in CCUS, 3x in hydrogen & 2x in wind & solar (+$200b/yr) in 2030 Image
All that investment means ~2 million more net jobs in energy supply sectors in 2030. That includes >1 million manufacturing jobs, mostly in wind turbine & solar PV components & assembly, supported by new manufacturing tax credits & bonus incentives to "Buy American" in the bill. Image
Note that the above analysis does NOT include even more manufacturing jobs in steel and aluminum sectors to supply inputs for solar PV, wind turbine and grid related infrastructure investments, also incentivized by BBBA's bonus tax credits for domestic content.
A big shift to cleaner energy under BBBA also avoids 24,000 additional deaths from exposure to fine particulate pollution from energy activities through 2030 vs IIJA (estimated at $213B in avoided damages). That means a cleaner, healthier America for ourselves and our children. Image
Finally, with Putin's assault on Ukraine, energy has become a central front in the conflict w/Russia. Surging US investment in EVs & heat pumps could cut oil use in transport by ~1/3rd & gas use in buildings by ~1/5th by 2030, freeing up U.S. oil & gas for export to our EU allies ImageImageImage
We'll have more on what the REPEAT Project study implies for the rapidly shifting geopolitics of energy later this week. For now, you can find all of this + MUCH more at our repeatproject.org incl. a detailed data portal to access all quantitative outcomes under each policy
Thanks to @Hewlett_Found for financial support of REPEAT Project & to the rest of the team, including @ErinNMayfield, @evolved_energy, @NehaSPatankar @gschivley + everyone else! This was a huge effort! And we're not done yet. We'll keep focused on evolving federal bills & regs... Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jesse D. Jenkins

Jesse D. Jenkins Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JesseJenkins

Mar 24
A federal judge temporarily halted completion of a 102-mile high voltage transmission line that would connect dozens of renewable energy projects to the grid, at the behest of three environmental groups. 🤦‍♂️
reuters.com/sustainability…


Image
Image
Image
At issue: Driftless Area Land Conservancy, National Wildlife Refuge Association & Wisconsin Wildlife Federation sued to block a land swap approved by US Dept of Interior that would add 35 new acres of land to a wildlife refuge in exchange for 20 acres crossed by the line Come on!
I wonder where @audubonsociety @nature_org & @NWF are at on this project. They've done a lot to help keep a more balanced perspective on broad benefits of transmission to connect clean electricity resources and local environmental impacts.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 22, 2023
At long last, proposed #hydrogen tax credit rules are out. Industry reactions are in. While opponents of climate-friendly rules continue to complain, stakeholders from across the industry endorsed the proposal & are prepared to unleash investment in a truly clean H2 sector. A🧵⤵️
The Biden admin resisted a torrent of intense lobbying from big industrial players like the utilities NextEra & Constellation, oil majors like BP & Exxon, fuel-cell maker Plug Power, & their trade-group proxies, which spent millions on ads & lobbying to weaken the hydrogen rules.
But this has never been a "greens v industry" fight. In fact, a broad range of industry voices have consistently championed a three-pillars-based set of hydrogen rules. See
1.
2.
3.
4. s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2385…
taxnotes.com/research/feder…
nrdc.org/sites/default/…
greenh2catapult.com/2023/11/06/joi…
Read 22 tweets
Nov 13, 2023
If you’ve read about electric vehicles in the news lately, you know the vibes are all bad. The media has fixated on the idea that consumer demand for EVs is “slowing." But the data shows that just not true, as I explain in a new @Heatmap column heatmap.news/electric-vehic…
Image
If we take a look at actual sales data (as I did here ), there’s NO sign the growth in EVs is flagging. In fact, sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter exhibited the strongest year-on-year growth since the Q4 2021! anl.gov/esia/reference…
Image
Putting aside plug-in hybrids, which have shorter electric range and retain a gasoline engine, sales of purely electric vehicles have been steadily increasing at ~60% annual growth rate for each of the last six quarters. That’s fast enough to double EV sales every 14 months. Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 8, 2023
In the past two weeks, I think EVERY media outlet has written a story w/headlines like "EV sales are slowing" or "automakers are pulling back" from EVs. All present recent developments as a major setback. But are they? Are they really slowing? Is this 'red alert' moment? A 🧵...


Image
Image
Image
Image
What does it mean that EV sales are "slowing"? Year-on-year growth rates have been ~60% in each of the last several months. That's a rate fast enough to double sales in about 18 months. It's hard to see growth that fast as "slowing" sales.
The best (and only) quantitative evidence presented for the dominant media narrative is this data, as presented in a WSJ piece yesterday here: dealers for traditional OEMs (Ford, VW etc) are taking more time to move EVs off the lots wsj.com/business/autos…
Image
Read 19 tweets
Nov 1, 2023
It's not a disaster. These offshore projects getting cancelled now all signed fixed price long-term contracts several years ago, pre-pandemic & then got clobbered by unexpected interest rate hikes and cost inflation that made the projects financially unviable.
Developers tried to pass along costs to states (NY MA NJ) & their electricity consumers, and for the most part were rebuffed. State agencies basically said "No, a contract is a contract and we cant start renegotiating or any future contract wont be worth the ink it's printed on."
I happen to think that's a perfectly reasonable decision. These states will have to re-contract for new projects. In fact, NY just inked another 4 GW of contracts from three new projects after rejecting attempts to hike cost of a couple of previously contracted projects.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 27, 2023
Important🧵from BNEF expert @CoreyBCantor ⤵️
It's been a rough few weeks of news on US EV transition. But there's also QUITE a lot of groupthink and sensationalism. Seems like everyone in the press decided this week the EV transition was dead and consumers "dont want EVs." Yet...
We risk conflating a *slow down* in incumbent automaker's EV ramp up plans -- GM, Ford, VW & Honda specifically -- with the broader market, which is still growing robustly, about 50% year-on-year according to @CoreyBCantor, despite serious headwinds from high interest rates.
While GM & Ford etc. pull back, upstarts like Tesla & Rivian are growing and other incubments like Volvo () & Hyundai () are leaning in and staying the course.electrek.co/2023/10/26/vol…
insideevs.com/news/693556/hy…
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(