‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes - POLITICO

This is so good (in a scary way)

“We are already, she said, in the middle of a third World War, whether we’ve fully grasped it or not.”
politico.com/news/magazine/…
“Sadly, we are treading back through old historical patterns that we said that we would never permit to happen again,” Hill said
Those old historical patterns inc Western businesses who fail to see how they help build a tyrant’s war chest, admirers enamored of an autocrat’s “strength” & politicians’ tendency to point fingers inward for political gain instead of working together for their nation’s security.
She says it’s not too late to turn Putin back and it is a job for Ukraine, NATO, and Western Companies too.

And not being in the slightest complacent about the threats. Image
“There’s lots of danger ahead, she warned. Putin is increasingly operating emotionally and likely to use all the weapons at his disposal, including nuclear ones. It’s important not to have any illusions — but equally important not to lose hope.“
“Every time you think, ’No, he wouldn’t, would he?’

Well, yes, he would,” Hill said. “And he wants us to know that, of course.”
“It’s not that we should be intimidated and scared…. We have to prepare for those contingencies and figure out what is it that we’re going to do to head them off.”
She thinks Putin HAS changed.

Is more emotional.

“The pretext (for the invasion) is completely flimsy and almost nonsensical for anybody who’s not in the echo chamber or the bubble of propaganda in Russia itself.”
“ I mean, demanding to the Ukrainian military that they essentially overthrow their own government or lay down their arms and surrender because they are being commanded by a bunch of drug-addled Nazi fascists? There’s just no sense to that. It beggars the imagination.”

Dangerous Image
It seems that the prospect of Russia striking at all of Ukraine and Georgia was seen as a real risk many years ago.

Putin wishes to establish Russian dominance….Russian “Imperium”, the old Russian Empire, which stretches beyond the old Soviet Union. Image
She wonders if he has spent the Pandemic pouring over old maps because of the shape of his more recent statements and speeches. Image

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More from @fascinatorfun

Mar 2
A Few Members of Russia's Parliament Speak Out Against War - The New York Times

They say they were told that troops were going in as peacekeepers in Luhansk and Donetsk …not that it would be a full scale invasion. That’s what they voted on.

nytimes.com/2022/02/28/wor…
Three members of Russia’s rubber-stamp Parliament have criticized their country’s war in Ukraine, a rare episode of dissent from within the Russian establishment.
“All three members belong to Russia’s Communist Party, which is nominally part of the opposition to the governing United Russia party but typically remains loyal to President Vladimir V. Putin on key issues.” Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 1
The Russian soldiers “believed they were the good guys, coming to liberate oppressed Ukrainians from their Nazi overlords. They believed the Kremlin, which said they'd be welcomed, thanked.

Instead, they are being berated as "оккупанты" - occupiers…by people who speak Russian…
Look like Russians. Shops that look familiar to Russians. They may have holidayed in Odessa & swum in the Black Sea.

Soldiers who may have family & friends in Ukraine.

Yet they are being told “Go Home. What are you doing here?”

And they are supposed to kill them? Image
It wasn’t supposed to be like this.

What does that do to morale?

And what messages will they be sending home….

When they can.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 1
“The past has invaded the present. Russia’s military aggression has burst over Ukraine like a storm cloud gathered from a different, darker time. It is raining terror and destruction on a country that has seen tank columns like the one Vladimir Putin has ordered to Kyiv before…”
“.. but not in the last seven decades.
The Kremlin claims to be landing surgical strikes. The reality for civilians on the ground is butchery. Until this happened, the western imagination struggled to process the idea that Putin would go through with it.”
“His cynical disregard for human life was never doubted, but his callousness was thought to include rational self-interest.”

One helluva article from @rafaelbehr
Read 8 tweets
Mar 1
U.S., other world powers to tap strategic oil reserves in bid to ease gasoline prices - The Washington Post

Whilst sanctions bite, the price of Brent Crude has been rising …and that in turn helps to fund Russia’s war.

A dilemma brewing fast. washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
To try and stabilise prices the USA has agreed to release 60 mill barrels of oil from their reserves.

Oil prices have already risen to $100 dollars a barrel and could hit $130 a barrel. Image
It’s the 4th time since 1974 that the USA has taken this step. Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 1
How much are these to buy? Anyone know?.

Responses suggest the Russia Army has about 100.

It looks as if Serbia bought 6 a couple of years ago.

(Link tweet two) for details.
Several responses put the value for export at around US$13-15million.

H/t @antartica81 for the most specific response.

“$13.15 million–$14.67 million a unit for export. Which likely mean about a third of that for domestic use.”

That’s still a VERY expensive fire.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 1
Swift: ejecting Russia is largely symbolic – here's why

“Yes, Swift messaging systems are a critical part of international economic activity”…
theconversation.com/swift-ejecting…
“They provide extremely secure communications, developed over five decades, dovetailing with the many and varied operations of commercial banks in international transactions. Swift systems would also be a prime target in any cyberwarfare, though thankfully they are well defended”
“The reality, however, is that limiting access to Swift is less practically effective than most media coverage supposes. It is an important symbol of global repudiation of Russia’s exercise of military force, but not much more.”
Read 7 tweets

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