Thread by @SPMiles42

A few quick thoughts on no fly zones (NFZ). Just to be clear, no fly zones don't just happen, they're declared and then must be enforced. In this case, enforcing a NFZ over Ukraine would mean shooting down Russian military planes that refused to comply. 1/

There is zero reason to believe that Russian military aircraft would comply, which means someone has to shoot them down. The Ukrainian military is already doing what they can to shoot them down, so you're talking about outside intervention. In this case, presumably US or NATO. 2/

So now you're talking about US and/or NATO partners shooting Russian jets and bombers out of the sky. Which means you're talking about direct US/NATO military engagement with Russia. Russia will fight back. So then what? 3/

This is where people get tripped up. Even if you presume that the US and NATO possess superior capabilities (which isn't an unreasonable assumption), you're looking at the likely expansion of war to a number of different countries. And that's just conventional fighting. 4/

The logical and obvious reality is that such a conflict would escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. And now Russia and the United States are shooting nuclear weapons at one another and within a few hours millions are dead. Before long most all of humanity. 5/

Is this the only outcome? No. It's possible something intervenes, someone blinks, someone accepts they're defeated and backs down. But you're rolling the dice on planetary distinction, which would also kill the people you were intending to save with a no fly zone. 6/

This may sound hyperbolic, but it's really not. There's a reason that the United States and Russia (and the Soviet Union) have gone to great lengths to avoid fighting a direct war in the nuclear age. The chances of this are all too real, and require honest, sober reckoning. 7/7

A quick addendum in case it wasn't obvious. I want to live in a world in which a no fly zone was possible. I want to live in a world in which we genuinely have mechanisms to prevent atrocities that don't result in even worse atrocities. We should build that world. We need it.