Thread by @BFriedmanDC

If Russia's military commanders were smart, they would turn that giant military column around (if it still has fuel) and drive it back to Donbas. That sounds like a joke. It isn't.

🧵

I don't know what the assault on Kyiv will look like because there are a million variables. It could be a weeks-long grind or the city could fall in a day with minimal fighting.

After they take it, I don't know what the beginning of the insurgency will look like. It could be ferocious and immediate or it could take time to build as it did in Iraq.

But I do know this: Once Russian units are in Kyiv, whether it takes a day or a month, the occupation will become a living nightmare from which Russia cannot wake.

We saw the carnage wrought by Iraqi insurgents on American units and Iraqi government forces. At no point did the insurgency represent more than 1% of the population. Now imagine if American and Iraqi units in Baghdad or Ramadi or Fallujah had faced 10 or 20 times that number.

Those Iraqi insurgents were armed with Iraqi military equipment and, at times, Iranian imports. That's it. Now imagine a force 10-20X the size, armed not with Iranian weapons, but with NATO drones and Javelins and all sorts of stuff Russia doesn't even want to think about.

At the same time, they will be able to trust no one. In Iraq, most Iraqis either *wanted* Americans there or tried to ignore them. Relationships with locals were generally good. Nevertheless, it was still often a violent mess. The Russians won't even have that luxury.

Everyone hates them. That's the default from day one. Even if a local won't shoot you or plant a roadside bomb, they won't help you. They won't tip you off to a looming ambush down the road as so many Iraqis did for us.

The Russians will be largely blind. As the attacks and casualties mount, the fear becomes paralyzing. Terrorized, traumatized Russian units will eventually refuse to leave the wire.

I'll stop there. The general idea is that these Russian troops in this column are about to go through some things. Whether it's in a day, a week or a month.

Most importantly, they'll never be able to create the conditions for effective governance.