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Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

@Iyervval

Mar 3

THREAD: Over the last few days I’ve obviously been talking to friends in Moscow, mostly upset & in shock. But what’s been revealing is talking to friends in Europe. There’s a clear attitudinal difference between politicians & bureaucrats. The politicians I’ve not been able to

2 have a proper conversation with. It gets choked up with too much emotion and fury to the point that it’s just futile continuing the conversation. It becomes sterile after a point. With bureaucrats there’s a pervasive sense of fear. Mind you there’s 2 kind of bureaucrats in

3 Europe, the politically aligned ones & the career bureaucrats. Curiously despite some of their public posturing, they agree the sanctions have gone too far. Too far not in terms of self harm, but in terms of having little to no leverage to now elicit good behaviour from Russia

Read 13 tweets

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

@Iyervval

Feb 27

THREAD: Rationality in decision making. Putin & Ukraine

1 As a rule when analysing any situation you assume rationality of the actor as the basis - Kim Jong Un, Xi, Imran. Stupidity & Risk taking are the variables. “Stupidity” is function of limited information - both what your

2 Intel tells you, who you include in your intel loop, and further what information you accept and what you reject - this is both objective & subjective. “Risk Taking” is a sub function - almost entirely objective - based on a cost benefit analysis. The better your Intel, the

3 the better your risk taking. However this is where “madness” comes in - what’s acceptable cost to one may seem madness to another. Notice both are functions of information. We’ve all known that dictatorships are fundamentally compromised on this because there is never a free

Read 19 tweets

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

@Iyervval

Feb 22

THREAD
1 Putin’s speech is a masterclass on history & realism, please read it in its entirety. I’m posting the link so you can read HIS words, not the spin by assorted western hourly rental “analysts”
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…

2 first do these sounds like the words of an ethno-nationalist? He acknowledges the deep intermarriage & links between the two states. He states fact that these parts rejoined Russia starting 1654 variously from the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, Ottoman Empire & Golden Horde

3 Notice he says “history” - not “territory”. Again he states facts here - Modern Ukraine as we know it, was created ENTIRELY by the Romanovs & the USSR. Please ask any “analyst” to factually disprove who made these additions. The deep blue is Zaporozhian Hetmanate.

Read 28 tweets

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

@Iyervval

Feb 22

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1495848754599055364

Meet Anne. She’s “principal staff writer” at the public toilet called The Atlantic, but doesn’t know the difference between propaganda & history. Kinda like how she believes US claims of “upholding rules based order” while being the most egregious violator in the last 30 years

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1495848754599055364

https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1495834834559807490?s=21

.of course Anne Applebum like most of her ilk (another example below) are extremely adept at mangling what others say, subtly manipulating speech to make it sound absurd. For example here’s “modern Ukraine” & who added what to it & when.

https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1495834834559807490?s=21

Notice the contradiction between what Putin said & what Einstein here editorialises it to the exact opposite. Mind you since you can see both in the same tweet, (🔴 the spin 🔵 what Putin said) you understand exactly how blatant the bullshitting is.

Read 8 tweets

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

@Iyervval

Feb 16

@SarahMaslinNir

1 Introducing @SarahMaslinNir & @Nataliekitro, the latest Glavlit Commissars, whose #TruckersConvoy piece would do their NKVD handlers proud. notice how the military & L&O background of some organisers is constantly repeated to give the impression this is a military coup 🔴

2 next - notice how the word “occupation” is repeatedly used - the people are called protestors, or demonstrators but the action is constantly called occupation 🔵 this fits in neatly with Gorky’s dictum “hatred should be cultivated by an organic revulsion as far as the enemy is

@nytimes

3 …concerned. Enemies must be seen as inferior. I believe profoundly the enemy is our inferior, & is a degenerate not only in the physical plane but also in the moral sense”. Obviously @nytimes editorial policy to refer to this as occupation while farmers protests were protests.

Read 9 tweets

Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

@Iyervval

Jan 19

@PMOIndia

THREAD

1 I hope people are watching and appreciating what @PMOIndia has done with Sri Lanka? Allowing them to stew in a self made Chinese debt trap? This is excellent policy. Let me explain why: Sri Lanka was trying to play India off against China. It was smart, but for india it

2 was a black hole. There was no way India could match up to china’s financial & infrastructure resources. So we stayed out and allowed the debt trap to work its course. Now when the Lankans are on the brink of collapse we’ve lent them an emergency credit line. This is a good

3 thing because for a much much much lesser cost to the Indian taxpayer, in one day, we’ve equalised or neutralised billions of dollars & years of effort that China has put into colonising Sri Lanka. This is not just excellent policy, it’s extremely smart & fiscally prudent

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