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Mar 1 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
$TQQQ buying the dip mantra never fails. Looking at flows into tqqq again hitting records- this is not what u see at the bottom- what you see at a bottom is a full revulsion & “get me out”. I understand that the market wants to go full Monty to a Powell will go dovish tilt
Given the Russian/Ukraine sitn. I question if that is really possible with Inflation ratcheting up with us losing Russian & Ukraine as a reliable supplier for so many commodities- just look at whats going on with coal px Wheat etc recently. I also wonder how the Russian sitn can
Be resolved with Putin not losing face w/o a ratcheting up of tensions including threatening of Nukes. To me were in a vol 50 environment not vol 20. Finally removing swift access to Russian banks is far more complicated and with many cross currents to so many Financials that I
Am 100% sure the politicians in Europe could not have fathomed or thought about in the last few days. A non payment by one institution can suddenly have a huge ripple effect and yet everyone has rushed to buy the dip w/o the DIP lol.

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More from @contrarian8888

contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Mar 2
Fantastic thread. For someone who got out of $RSX unscathed but then stupidly got back into $SBER on Friday and gotten a lot of private DM and public abuse since I respect 1 all that @LT3000Lyall has been so generously been willing to share.2.I agree if you could get a broker to
Allow you to buy Lukoy at < 1$, SBER at 2c, id sell my kidney to buy as much as possible given the asymmetric returns. Heads u become a billionaire, tails, you drink less lol. 3. Nature of going after asymmetric returns will by nature lead to not great outcomes once in a while.
-and the story hasn’t been set yet. Interestingly Bloomberg said that SBER in the end was not sanctioned- didnt matter stock went to 2c not because of fundamentals but because all the brokers only allowed a sale not a purchase. By default stocks wouldnt go down if many potential
Read 5 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 28
$TSLA. For someone who cut 60% of his short at 730 last Thursday i have re shorted 1/2 of what i cut today at 857$, This is the gift that Keeps giving. And oh yeah, YTD my tsla profits >$sber position which i had always considered a high risk lotto sitn. Added some today too.
My view on sber is that there is a 70% chance this is a 0. But there is also a 30% chance its a 30x (20 bagger just getting to where it was in Oct, + some premium if russia gets rerated with a change in govt).Not the risk most people would take but im also the idiot who bot
$AR (@1.6$) when everyone told me ar was going bust, $btu (@$3) when coal was dead, $PDN (@12c) when there was debt overhang and uranium had 1bn in inventories etc. Or PANR (30p) when it had a bad well result last spring. I seek out these situations knowing i could fully be
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 26
I have to thank @trader_ferg for helping me discover @LT3000Lyall & lyall’s jan 28 blog on the background on the Russian/Ukraine situation is must reading as opposed to all the garbage you see on twitter with half baked analysis lt3000.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-vs-…
It is clear there is high risk, the situation is fluid, and by no means am i not saddened by the suffering undergoing by innocent Ukrainians. That being said, when assets are trading at such a depressed valuation (eg $SBER at 1.5x per), the pulpit of “warnings” be it IBKR Image
Or Mr famous “hell is coming” @BillAckman who cried on TV during the depths of covid whilst quietly buying stocks warning about Russian banks. Again who knows how the situation unfolds, but when local Moscovites are willing to value a bank at a 50% premium to westerners one Image
Read 5 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 25
$RSX $SBER. So interesting news today- Russian duma saying they wont pay dividends to countries that have imposed sanctions. As i mentioned in my tweet earlier today when buying- i had no huge expectations on if the dividend would be paid or not- just knowing the discount was too
Large. However what i find fascinating, and h/t to @daveypingpong for sending this to me- until yesterday- $SBER stock traded in Moscow and GDR/ADR traded right on top of each other. Today the moscow stock trades at a 50% premium. (Huge contrast to the pre 2000 period when
Gasprom traded at a 3-4x premium in the adr to the local stock. If the dividends are not happening any time soon- i would think the asset you want to own is $SBER given its already reflected no dividends (ie Moscow stock at a 50% premium to GDR/ADR) vs Gazprom or any other listed
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 25
$SBER (sberbank) Having exited Russia at a tiny loss (PHEW), i was looking at sberbank- the best bank in russia. Although i missed the lows yesterday- i wanted to see what biden would announce-by which point sberbank in UK was shut (i refuse to trade pink sheets)
SBERBANK ($3.93 current px) up 58% today but it was 20$ in Oct, 9$ on monday and up to 3.93 from 2.6 low yesterday. I dont feel bad missing the absolute low because i had no idea what biden would announce. (At current px stock is 1.5x per and 25% dividend yield
20% roe 0.5x pbr ). MASSIVE risk, u may not get the dividends etc etc etc. So this is not financial advice and I honestly cant answer any questions on what about this or that- so dont bother asking me. This is a gut trade and im happy to think the best bank in russia with a
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 24
$BTU. If you’re selling btu today coz of the convertible placement let me be clear. Youre being an idiot. Yes an idiot. Why? 1. Newcastle coal going bonkers. 2. EV actually goes down if you sell stock at a 30% premium and retire debt at a discount. 3. Stock is anyway sub ImageImage
1x ev/ebitda & 4. The current debt is highly restrictive and does not allow any capital return. This accelerates their dividend payment to you. Remember if they sell stock at 24 and buy back at 30- yes it may not be great ($AR did something similar where they sold stock at 4.2
And now announced a buyback at 21$ but hasn’t stopped stock from performing well. So i repeat if you need to scratch your itch to sell something go and short $TSLA that will probably fall 80% as opposed to selling BTU which is actually cutting its valuation. Yes do i like the
Read 5 tweets

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