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Feb 26 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
I have to thank @trader_ferg for helping me discover @LT3000Lyall & lyall’s jan 28 blog on the background on the Russian/Ukraine situation is must reading as opposed to all the garbage you see on twitter with half baked analysis lt3000.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-vs-…
It is clear there is high risk, the situation is fluid, and by no means am i not saddened by the suffering undergoing by innocent Ukrainians. That being said, when assets are trading at such a depressed valuation (eg $SBER at 1.5x per), the pulpit of “warnings” be it IBKR Image
Or Mr famous “hell is coming” @BillAckman who cried on TV during the depths of covid whilst quietly buying stocks warning about Russian banks. Again who knows how the situation unfolds, but when local Moscovites are willing to value a bank at a 50% premium to westerners one Image
Has to take notice. And although the west may impose sanctions i have to question how likely that is with Germany opposed & firmly exposed given their gas imports, & many countries including India trying to find a back door for Russian exports.
Sometimes the biggest risks are not when its so clearly in your face & hence “ in the price”. I would argue any of @CathieDWood holdings & in particular $tsla has far more risk and downside then $sber at 1.5x per. But then im a contrarian or a fool at heart.

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More from @contrarian8888

contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 25
$RSX $SBER. So interesting news today- Russian duma saying they wont pay dividends to countries that have imposed sanctions. As i mentioned in my tweet earlier today when buying- i had no huge expectations on if the dividend would be paid or not- just knowing the discount was too
Large. However what i find fascinating, and h/t to @daveypingpong for sending this to me- until yesterday- $SBER stock traded in Moscow and GDR/ADR traded right on top of each other. Today the moscow stock trades at a 50% premium. (Huge contrast to the pre 2000 period when
Gasprom traded at a 3-4x premium in the adr to the local stock. If the dividends are not happening any time soon- i would think the asset you want to own is $SBER given its already reflected no dividends (ie Moscow stock at a 50% premium to GDR/ADR) vs Gazprom or any other listed
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 25
$SBER (sberbank) Having exited Russia at a tiny loss (PHEW), i was looking at sberbank- the best bank in russia. Although i missed the lows yesterday- i wanted to see what biden would announce-by which point sberbank in UK was shut (i refuse to trade pink sheets)
SBERBANK ($3.93 current px) up 58% today but it was 20$ in Oct, 9$ on monday and up to 3.93 from 2.6 low yesterday. I dont feel bad missing the absolute low because i had no idea what biden would announce. (At current px stock is 1.5x per and 25% dividend yield
20% roe 0.5x pbr ). MASSIVE risk, u may not get the dividends etc etc etc. So this is not financial advice and I honestly cant answer any questions on what about this or that- so dont bother asking me. This is a gut trade and im happy to think the best bank in russia with a
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 24
$BTU. If you’re selling btu today coz of the convertible placement let me be clear. Youre being an idiot. Yes an idiot. Why? 1. Newcastle coal going bonkers. 2. EV actually goes down if you sell stock at a 30% premium and retire debt at a discount. 3. Stock is anyway sub ImageImage
1x ev/ebitda & 4. The current debt is highly restrictive and does not allow any capital return. This accelerates their dividend payment to you. Remember if they sell stock at 24 and buy back at 30- yes it may not be great ($AR did something similar where they sold stock at 4.2
And now announced a buyback at 21$ but hasn’t stopped stock from performing well. So i repeat if you need to scratch your itch to sell something go and short $TSLA that will probably fall 80% as opposed to selling BTU which is actually cutting its valuation. Yes do i like the
Read 5 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 23
$RSX $AM. Sometimes you have to realise youre wrong and walk away. When buying all the PMs, i had trimmed 3/4 of my rsx into the pop last few weeks to free up capital. Going into the invasion i had a small position and decided to sell it into the rally over the day yesterday.
WHY? Although russia is incredibly cheap at 4x per and I’ll probably look at this in regret, my fear is the high dividend yield (call it 12%) may get impacted with repatriation with sanctions. So today i could get 12% (all ordinary dvd for rsx so call 6% if you live in NY), or
With $AM at current px a 90c dividend (82% of it is return of capital so non taxed) yields an after tax return of 7.8% with no headache. Obviously russia has a much bigger cap gains potential, but im loaded to the gills with other cheap commodity stocks like $BTU at 1x ebitda so
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 19
$QQQ Some musings on a Saturday morning. @kevinmuir piece yesterday about HF continued buying of tech and selling of energy- something i had noted as well in several tweets from GS data made me think what is causing this apparent stupidity. H/t to Kevin for some of these charts
After all everyone knows that rising
Rates are bad for high duration assets. So why the continued doubling down on a losing bet. & even though the charts don’t show it, GS data shows the continued buying of tech & selling of energy ytd.
Read 12 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 5
$GLD $SLV Two years ago close to this day I made a fateful decision to dump all my $gdxj and buy $AR at $1/share. Close colleagues thought i was absolutely loony- sentiment on gold was sky high (similar to where oil sentiment is today fyi) and well sentiment on gas- you could
not find a more reviled asset. That was a life changing trade & even though i exited 1/2 my $ar at 10 & 1/2 at $14; the entries into $btu sub 3, and $5.50 ended up being even better switches. So why the back story-Twitter has made me so much $ from getting a real time sentiment
check on where sentiment is. Well now lets talk about oil; My timeline has everyone calling for $150 oil; don't believe me- look at COT o/s-now I'm not bearish oil- if anyone remembers for 2 years many of my followers have asked me about gold & i said nope-only care about energy
Read 22 tweets

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