Thread by @SahilBloom

A Primer on SWIFT & Sanctions: Breaking down SWIFT, asset freezes, and the complexities of economic warfare.

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Please read, listen, & share if you found it useful. sahilbloom.substack.com/p/a-primer-on-…

A few images from today’s piece that I found striking...

Russian reserves (ex. Gold) since 2014.

The last dip was when they used them to insulate the ruble from the impact of sanctions from the prior invasion of Ukraine.

They have rebuilt steadily since…

The Russian ruble to the U.S. Dollar over the last 6 months.

A clear picture of the impact of the sweeping sanctions package that covered SWIFT and Central Bank asset freezes.

Replying to a common question, I personally find it hard to imagine that Putin and his strategists did not consider the possibility of the Central Bank asset freeze on the reserves held in foreign/Western banks.

I generally assume all of this was “war gamed” out pre-invasion.

Which leads me to believe that they expect they can weather the financial storm as long as any restrictions, SWIFT bans, etc. exclude energy.

Strikes me as a fair conclusion in the context of China continuing to lean into partnership (as per the headline from @business below).

By the way, just thinking out loud here…

More than open to being told I’m off or flawed in my thinking here (thanks @peterjhebert!).