Thread by @perfiliev

I thought it was clear by now that this war is not about NATO or Russia's security concerns.

Yet, I still see many comments saying that it is.

Let me clarify a few things.

This war is based on Putin's struggle to remain in power.

NATO is just an excuse.

Here is why 👇🧵

First of all, NATO has never been an issue for decades.

Hell, Kaliningrad is surrounded by NATO.

Latvia and Estonia are bordering Russia, and both are NATO members.

NATO border is 76 miles from St. Petersburg and has been there since 2004.

A huge majority of Russian lawmakers' children live and study in NATO countries.

Eye-watering sums of money laundered from the Russian budget and oil revenues sit in NATO-protected real estate.

But Russia isn't putting forces on the Latvian and Estonian border, is it?

Why Ukraine?

And why now?

Because Belarus.

Because Kazakhstan.

And of course - because Ukraine.

The motivation behind all of this is Putin's struggle for power. (*astronaut meme* always has been)

That's all.

No 3D chess.

No greater conspiracy theory.

No grand geopolitical masterplan developed by the secret world government.

And anyone who says, “oh, it’s not that simple”, is just trying to confuse and muddy the waters.

A free, democratic and prosperous Ukraine is a direct threat to Putin's rule of law.

Full stop.

Because it’s an easy chain reaction.

If Ukraine can grow and prosper, why can't Belarus?

Why can't Kazakhstan?

And of course, why can't Russia?

No reason why - of course, they can!

The reason they don’t is because their corrupt and authoritarian governments is a significant bottleneck standing between the nation and prosperity.

Putin knows this, which is why he hangs for his life supporting dictatorships around the world.

This is why he sent forces to quell mass protests in Belarus.

This is why he sent troops to Kazakhstan to suppress any uprising.

This is why he supported the ousted Ukrainian president Yanukovich.

But his efforts failed in Ukraine!

At a cost of many lives, Ukrainians overthrew their government in 2014 during the Euromaidan revolution.

And if they succeed in fighting corruption and becoming a developed, democratic nation, this will be a terrible precedent for all the post-Soviet dictatorships.

Because if Ukraine can overthrow a government and become a prosperous country - so can they.

Absolutely no way Putin will allow that.

Hence Crimea.

Hence Donbas.

Hence the war.

Hence the Minsk accords.

Hence the "I will f*ck you over anyway I can" diplomacy.

All of that is simply driven by two factors:

1. Punish Ukraine and make an example of what happens to counties that rebel against their leaders.

2. Prevent Ukraine from developing and prospering, so other ex-Soviet republics aren’t tempted to protest.

With recent demonstrations in Belarus and Kazakhstan, Putin decided that another Ukraine example is in order.

And starting a war achieves both of these objectives.

It also sends a clear message to the Russian people.

You protest - you get what happened in Ukraine.

*in a thick Russian accent*: You don't want that happen to you, do you?

And it doesn't matter that most of Ukraine's recent misfortunes come from Russia f*cking with it.

It will be lost.

What will remain is a simple cause-and-effect:
You rebel -> you get war

The missing link of course would be:
You rebel -> you get Putin on your ass -> you get war

Because Putin can't let it go.

Ukraine is one of the pillars on which his power stands.

If he loses it, his power comes under threat.