Thread by @Crypto8Fi

As most of Crypto Twitter has begun to shill coins after the recent pump.

Time for a rant.

But I think its' important that you understand a separate perspective on why we are pumping and how its' likely a "bull trap".

A discussion 🧵 on why our markets are so speculative.

Before you start reading this thread.

Grab a snack. A coffee. Some popcorn.

To fully understand what I am trying to address. This may take some time.

By the end of this thread, I'd like to give you the tools to help you organise thoughts on general market direction.

Before I start, please remember I am actually an idiot.

I have zero actual financial markets experience, I’m not a financial advisor, don’t understand how money works and barely understand how the coins work.

Pretty much your basement crypto dude.

These are just my opinions.

We have experienced a historic bull run since 2020.

A fertile monetary environment, with cash printing at its' peak has enabled such a bull run.

Additionally, newer concepts such as DeFi and Metaverse have attracted a lot of capital in TVL.

To start with, let's discuss Decentralized Finance.

DeFi often involves leverage. As it becomes popularised, the demand for crappy forks and infinite APY's just grows

However, there comes a point where ponzinomics disinterests buyers who are sick of being rugged/losing money.

The future of DeFi will likely involve less forks and more integration with gaming/Metaverse/NFTs.

Realistically, 99% of retail investors don't have the first clue about options and being able to profit off of ve(3,3).

Education will precede the next DeFi boom- in my view.

What about Play to Earn games?

Like Axie Infinity.

Rural farmers in China might earn more from grinding out Axies than farming all day.

But realistically, Web2 gaming -> Web3 gaming.

I think, ideas like secondary markets will remain if not much else.

So much speculation rn.

Crypto as someone wise described it (me) is like Chinese whispers with billions of dollars.

Someone says something. Everyone follows the narrative.

Until someone changes it.

Money flows to the new whisper.

Anyways, let's talk about mercenary capital and VCs.

Capital flows from one narrative to another.

Generally, you don't even need to invest that much to make it.

Just use your followers as "exit liquidity".

Or invest in seed rounds.

Jk, unless you want someone like @zachxbt to expose you in headlights in front of CT.

I want to draw parallels to 2018.

Remember when all the ICOs printed money. And what that eventually led to, when the flywheels started turning backwards.

Our 2018 version, is now the fact that digital PFP are selling for floor prices of 1+ETH with just a month of marketing.

It's hard to put a finger on how many NFT marketers I've seen recently and have been reaching out for promotions.

NFT's marketers are now a full time job paying more than being a "doctor" in some countries.

No hate.

Just saying. When do we stop being so speculative?

In continuation with my rant.

How many alts have we seen that do the same thing as another, just pop up.

No real use cases.

Just a nicely designed whitepaper.

A few big promoters.

A couple of shaken hands in a back room on the dark web.

And boom- "the new ETH Killer".

With every new fork, NFT and project without any value.

We are diluting our market further.

Reminder: At the height of the dot-com boom, it was possible for a promising company to raise so much money even if it had never made a profit or revenue.

Starting to sound familiar?

It is time to ask you a question dear reader.

How many times have you invested in a coin, considering their position from their ATH?

I am guilty of the same mistake.

"Admit your mistakes to yourself at the least" - some old guy (probably Warren Buffet).

Anyways,

Only one person can sell the all time high.

A friendly reminder than your portfolio is worth how much you have in stablecoins and fiat.

Don't value your portfolio in $ADA please. Ever. Or another coin (not trying to hate on ADA btw).

Okay. On to tokens.

Crypto solves "problems" right.

This has been engrained in our heads, ever since we dipped our innocent feet in this market full of whales, sharks and mercenaries.

So why does nearly every project have a token to its' name?

Well, it doesn't need to...

They often have tokens to pay their teams, initial investors and others who SHILL your feed everyday with crap.

Anyways, point being- very few projects actually need tokens.

A lot of them have tokens so that the team can cash out nicely and buy a nice supercar each - jk/maybe.

If we take fundamentals in this market.

Your project such as $BTC, $ETH and a few more will always have a place.

Not a maximalist view.

Even then, I still believe we are heavily overvalued.

I'll leave it to some CryptoWiz to do the DCF and god-knows-what to calc true value.

Some questions which I've been thinking about:

*What kinds of projects or businesses are not wholly dependent on a constant state of up only?

*Who will profit the most in a death spiral downwards?

*Who will be left holding the bags?

*Important narratives for the near term?

If you enjoyed this,

Please consider giving the first tweet a RT/fav.

Also follow me: @Crypto8Fi for more threads on DeFi, projects and the latest alpha.

I also write on Medium that goes more into depth on DeFi concepts and Financial Freedom.

medium.com/@crypto8fi